Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Picks, Predictions and Best Bets For October 5, 2026
One swing from Munetaka Murakami and a scoreless night from the pitching staff put the Chicago White Sox in control of this ALDS, as Chicago blanked Cleveland 3-0 in the opener. Now the Guardians turn to strikeout machine Gavin Williams to even the series, while the White Sox hand the ball to Anthony Kay for his first start of the postseason.
Our White Sox vs Guardians prediction for Game 2 on October 5 breaks down the pitching matchup, the power gap between these lineups, the line movement, and the best bets for a game that could swing the series. For more winning plays throughout the postseason, check out our MLB predictions.
White Sox vs Guardians Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Chicago White Sox (+131)
- Run Line Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-174)
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
- Projected Final Score: White Sox 3, Guardians 2
Odds and Line Movement for White Sox vs Guardians
Cleveland opened as a -164 favorite on October 3, with Chicago at +135 and every early dollar on the Guardians. The price has softened since. Cleveland dipped as low as -149 early on October 5 before climbing back, and it now sits at -158, with the White Sox at +131. The Guardians still hold 67 percent of the money and 55 percent of the tickets, but their share of the money has dropped from a high of 79 percent on October 4, and the moneyline has drifted slightly toward Chicago.
The total has stayed locked at 6.5, but the pricing has shifted meaningfully. The over was as expensive as -126 on October 4, with the under at plus money for much of the past two days. At the latest update, the over has dropped to -115 and the under has moved to -105, despite 73 percent of the money and 72 percent of the tickets backing the over. Track every price change before first pitch with our odds page.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | +135 | Over 6.5 (-120) |
| Cleveland Guardians | -164 | Under 6.5 (-101) |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | +131 | +1.5 (-174) | Over 6.5 (-115) |
| Cleveland Guardians | -158 | -1.5 (+143) | Under 6.5 (-105) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Chi. White Sox | Cleveland | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | +131 | -158 | CLE 67%, CLE 55% |
| 10/05 | +135 | -163 | CLE 76%, CLE 56% |
| 10/05 | +131 | -159 | CLE 76%, CLE 56% |
| 10/05 | +135 | -163 | CLE 76%, CLE 55% |
| 10/05 | +132 | -160 | CLE 73%, CLE 54% |
| 10/05 | +123 | -149 | CLE 73%, CLE 54% |
| 10/04 | +130 | -157 | CLE 60%, CLE 51% |
| 10/04 | +129 | -157 | CLE 60%, CLE 51% |
| 10/04 | +130 | -157 | CLE 79%, CLE 65% |
| 10/04 | +133 | -161 | CLE 77%, CLE 61% |
| 10/03 | +135 | -164 | CLE 100%, CLE 100% |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | 6.5 (-115) | 6.5 (-105) | OV 73%, OV 72% |
| 10/05 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (+100) | OV 59%, OV 64% |
| 10/05 | 6.5 (-122) | 6.5 (+102) | OV 73%, OV 64% |
| 10/05 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (+100) | OV 73%, OV 64% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-122) | 6.5 (+101) | OV 72%, OV 71% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-121) | 6.5 (+101) | OV 94%, OV 83% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-122) | 6.5 (+101) | OV 93%, OV 75% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (+100) | OV 93%, OV 75% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-122) | 6.5 (+102) | UN 62%, OV 50% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-126) | 6.5 (+104) | UN 62%, OV 50% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (-101) | UN 62%, OV 50% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-119) | 6.5 (-101) | UN 62%, OV 50% |
| 10/04 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (-101) | UN 62%, OV 50% |
Chicago vs Cleveland Key Matchups and Handicap
This series has been tightly contested all year. Chicago won the regular-season series 7-6, and its Game 1 shutout extended a run in which the White Sox have taken four of their last five meetings with Cleveland. Game 2 presents a clear contrast: the Guardians have the stronger starting pitcher on paper, while the White Sox bring the more dangerous lineup.
White Sox Hand the Ball to Anthony Kay
Kay makes his first start of this postseason after working out of the bullpen in his previous playoff appearances. Chicago will hope he resembles the pitcher who finished the regular season 10-9 with a 4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts across 158 innings. He has already contributed in this series, appearing in Game 1 and helping the White Sox escape a bases-loaded jam without allowing Cleveland to score. That kind of composure under pressure is encouraging heading into a bigger role.
Guardians Counter With Gavin Williams
Williams gives Cleveland the more imposing pitching profile in this matchup. He went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP during the regular season while racking up an impressive 248 strikeouts in 184.1 innings. Cleveland’s staff as a whole posted the stronger season-long numbers, with a 3.77 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Williams should make it difficult for Chicago to manufacture runs, which raises the importance of the White Sox’ power bats.
CWS Power Advantage
The White Sox bring considerably more pop into this matchup. Chicago finished the regular season with 211 home runs and a .406 slugging percentage, compared with Cleveland’s 162 homers and .380 slugging percentage. Munetaka Murakami remains the biggest threat after hitting 35 home runs with 77 RBI, and he delivered the decisive blow in Game 1 with a two-run homer. Miguel Vargas adds 33 homers and a team-leading 93 RBI, while Sam Antonacci provides on-base skills with a .277 average and .370 OBP. Against a strikeout pitcher like Williams, one swing from this lineup could decide the game.
Cleveland Lineup Searching for Runs
The Guardians were shut out in the opener and will need more from their key hitters. Chase DeLauter leads the way after hitting .287 with a .363 OBP and .457 slugging percentage. Angel Martinez supplied a team-high 18 home runs, and Brayan Rocchio drove in 73 runs. With Rhys Hoskins on the injured list, Cleveland’s offensive ceiling is limited, and a lineup without much power may struggle to string together enough hits to break through.
White Sox Own the Recent Head-to-Head
Chicago has the momentum in this matchup, having won four of the last five meetings with Cleveland, including the Game 1 shutout. The Guardians have the better pitching numbers, but the White Sox have shown they can win low-scoring games against this opponent. Laying 1.5 runs with Cleveland against a team that keeps finding ways to beat it is unattractive, which makes the plus-money price on Chicago appealing.
CWS vs CLE Betting Trends
- The White Sox lead the ALDS 1-0 after a 3-0 shutout in Game 1.
- Chicago won the regular-season series against Cleveland 7-6.
- The White Sox have won four of their last five meetings with the Guardians.
- Chicago hit 211 home runs with a .406 slugging percentage this season, compared with Cleveland’s 162 homers and .380 slugging.
- Cleveland’s pitching staff posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP during the regular season.
- Gavin Williams struck out 248 batters in 184.1 innings this season.
- Cleveland’s moneyline has eased from -164 to -158 since opening.
- The under has moved from plus money to -105 despite 73 percent of the money on the over.
CWS vs CLE Key Injuries and Notes
- Guardians: 1B Rhys Hoskins is on the 10-day IL.
- Guardians: RPs Colin Holderman and Andrew Walters are unavailable.
- White Sox: C Joey Bart is out.
- White Sox: Pitchers Prelander Berroa, Luis Castillo, and Ky Bush are unavailable.
- White Sox: Anthony Kay makes his first start of the postseason after pitching in relief, including in Game 1.
Both bullpens are dealing with absences, which places more weight on the starters. Cleveland’s loss of Hoskins further limits a lineup that already lacks Chicago’s power, while the White Sox will be counting on Kay to work deep enough to protect a thinned-out relief corps.
Chicago vs Cleveland ATS and Total Picks
Run Line Pick: White Sox +1.5 (-174). Chicago has already shown it can beat Cleveland in a low-scoring game, and its superior power gives it a chance to win outright even against a strikeout pitcher like Williams. Taking the run and a half provides protection in a game that projects to be decided by a narrow margin, though the moneyline offers the better value for bettors confident in the White Sox.
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (+100). Williams’ strikeout ability should keep Chicago’s hitters from stringing together rallies, and Cleveland’s offense was shut out in Game 1 and is now without Hoskins. The market has also started to lean toward the under, as its price moved from plus money to -105 even with most of the public backing the over. A tight, pitching-driven game fits the projection.
White Sox vs Guardians Best Bets
- Best Bet: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+131)
- Run Line: Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-174)
- Total: Under 6.5 (+100)
The White Sox on the moneyline is the top play, offering plus-money value with the team that has the more dangerous lineup, the series lead, and the recent head-to-head edge. The Under pairs well with it, since Williams and a Cleveland offense missing Hoskins both point toward another low-scoring contest.
Final Score Prediction for White Sox vs Guardians
Williams should keep Chicago in check for much of the game, but the White Sox only need a swing or two from Murakami or Vargas to break through. If Kay can carry the composure he showed in relief into his first postseason start, Cleveland’s lineup may once again struggle to generate enough offense. Look for Chicago to grab a 2-0 series lead in a one-run game.
- Projected Final Score: White Sox 3, Guardians 2
- Moneyline Pick: Chicago White Sox (+131)
- Run Line Pick: White Sox +1.5 (-174)
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
