New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks, Predictions and Best Bets For October 5, 2026

A 1.95 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts. Those are the numbers Cam Schlittler carries into Game 2 of the ALDS, and the New York Yankees need every bit of that dominance after a 1-0 loss to open the series. Tampa Bay answers with Freddy Peralta, a right-hander the current Yankees roster has already taken deep seven times.

Our Yankees vs Rays prediction for October 5 at 8:00 PM ET breaks down the pitching edge, the line movement, an injury report missing Aaron Judge, and the best bets for a pivotal Game 2 at Tampa Bay. For more expert plays throughout October, check out our MLB picks.

Yankees vs Rays Quick Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick: New York Yankees (-131)
Run Line Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+142)
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (-107)
Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Rays 1

Odds and Line Movement for Yankees vs Rays

New York opened as a -130 road favorite on October 3, with Tampa Bay at +108. The number has barely budged, ticking to Yankees -131 and Rays +109 on October 4. The betting has been heavily one-sided, as the Yankees hold 98 percent of the money and 89 percent of the tickets on the moneyline.

The total opened at 6.5 with the over priced between -119 and -120 and the under at -101. The juice has steadily shifted since, with the over falling to -113 and the under rising to -107 on October 5. That move lines up with the public, as 77 percent of the money and 70 percent of the tickets are on the under. Check the latest numbers before first pitch with our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Moneyline	Total
New York Yankees	-130	Over 6.5 (-119)
Tampa Bay Rays	+108	Under 6.5 (-101)

Current Odds

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Total
New York Yankees	-131	-1.5 (+142)	Over 6.5 (-113)
Tampa Bay Rays	+109	+1.5 (-172)	Under 6.5 (-107)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	Public ($, #)
10/04	-131	+109	NYY 98%, NYY 89%
10/03	-130	+108	N/A

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under	Public ($, #)
10/05	6.5 (-113)	6.5 (-107)	UN 77%, UN 70%
10/04	6.5 (-115)	6.5 (-105)	N/A
10/03	6.5 (-120)	6.5 (-101)	N/A
10/03	6.5 (-119)	6.5 (-101)	N/A
10/03	6.5 (-120)	6.5 (-101)	N/A
10/03	6.5 (-119)	6.5 (-101)	N/A
10/03	6.5 (-120)	6.5 (-101)	N/A
10/03	6.5 (-119)	6.5 (-101)	N/A

New York vs Tampa Bay Key Matchups and Handicap

Tampa Bay took Game 1 by a 1-0 score in a game that produced only six combined hits, and the Rays now lead the season series 8-6. Game 2 sets up very differently on the mound, with New York holding a clear starting-pitching advantage and a lineup that has historically done damage against Tampa Bay’s starter.

Yankees Send Cam Schlittler to the Mound

Schlittler was one of baseball’s most dominant starters during the 2026 regular season. He finished 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts across 193.2 innings. He also enters this start in top form after throwing six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against Boston on September 29. Against a Rays lineup that scratched out only one run in Game 1, Schlittler gives New York a strong chance to keep Tampa Bay off the board again.

Rays Turn to Freddy Peralta

Tampa Bay counters with Peralta, who went 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts over 169 innings. Those numbers fall well short of Schlittler’s, giving the Yankees a noticeable edge on paper. Peralta’s WHIP in particular suggests he allows enough traffic for New York to create scoring chances, especially from hitters who have seen him well in the past.

NYY Bats Have Solved Peralta Before

The current Yankees roster owns encouraging history against Peralta. New York hitters have combined for a .248 average, .341 OBP, and .531 slugging percentage against him across 113 at-bats, including seven home runs. Cody Bellinger has been especially productive, going 6-for-14 (.429) with a homer and four walks. Ben Rice is 2-for-5 with a home run, and Anthony Volpe is 2-for-4 with a homer. That power success is a major reason to expect the Yankees to break through after being shut out in Game 1.

Yankees Searching for Offense Without Judge

New York’s lineup is without Aaron Judge, who is on the 10-day IL with a calf issue and is not expected back until at least October 12. That removes the club’s most dangerous offensive presence and puts more weight on Rice and Bellinger. Rice led the Yankees with 41 home runs and 97 RBI, making him the biggest power threat in the lineup, while Bellinger hit .264 with a .338 OBP and .429 slugging percentage.

Tampa Bay Looks to Caminero and Simpson

The Rays will lean on Junior Caminero, who paced the club with 42 home runs and 101 RBI while batting .276. Chandler Simpson adds a contact and speed element after hitting .306 with a .333 OBP. Against a pitcher as dominant as Schlittler, Tampa Bay may need a mistake pitch to Caminero or a rally sparked by Simpson to generate offense.

NYY vs TB Betting Trends

Tampa Bay won Game 1 of the ALDS by a 1-0 score.
Game 1 produced only six combined hits and one run.
The Rays lead the season series 8-6 after their Game 1 win.
Cam Schlittler posted a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP during the 2026 regular season.
Schlittler threw six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against Boston on September 29.
Current Yankees hitters have seven home runs and a .531 slugging percentage against Freddy Peralta in 113 at-bats.
Cody Bellinger is 6-for-14 with a homer and four walks against Peralta.
New York holds 98 percent of the moneyline money and 89 percent of the tickets.
The under has moved from -101 to -107, with 77 percent of the money backing it.

NYY vs TB Key Injuries and Notes

Yankees: OF Aaron Judge (calf) is on the 10-day IL and is not expected back until at least October 12.
Yankees: Fernando Cruz, Clarke Schmidt, and Kervin Castro are unavailable.
Rays: Gavin Lux, Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, and Shane McClanahan are out.
Rays: Griffin Jax is listed as day-to-day.

Judge’s absence is the most significant injury in the series, removing New York’s top offensive weapon. Tampa Bay’s list is longer on the pitching side, with Uceta, Heasley, and McClanahan out and Jax uncertain, which could thin the Rays’ options behind Peralta if he struggles early.

New York vs Tampa Bay ATS and Total Picks

Run Line Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+142). The pitching gap in this game is significant. Schlittler has been dominant all season and is coming off a 10-strikeout scoreless outing, while Peralta’s 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP leave room for New York to do damage. The Yankees’ history of power against Peralta, with seven home runs in 113 at-bats, gives them a realistic path to a multi-run win, and the +142 price offers real value.

Total Pick: Under 6.5 (-107). Game 1 produced only one run and six combined hits, and Schlittler is capable of shutting down the Rays for most of the night. Tampa Bay’s lineup will have trouble against him, and New York’s offense is limited without Judge. The market has also shifted toward the under, with its price moving from -101 to -107 as most of the money came in on that side.

Yankees vs Rays Best Bets

Best Bet: New York Yankees -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-131)
Total: Under 6.5 (-107)

The Yankees on the run line is the top play, pairing a dominant starter with a lineup that has proven it can hit Peralta for power. New York on the moneyline is the safer option for bettors who want to avoid the margin, and the Under fits a matchup headlined by Schlittler and a series that has started with very little scoring.

Final Score Prediction for Yankees vs Rays

Schlittler should control the Rays’ lineup much as he has controlled opponents all season, while New York finds enough power against Peralta to build a lead. Even without Judge, Rice and Bellinger give the Yankees the tools to produce the separation they need. Expect New York to even the series at 1-1 with a convincing win.