NFL Player Props Week 1: Best Quarterback, Wide Receiver and Touchdown Prop Picks

Looking for the best NFL Player Props for Week 1? Picks and Parlays NFL handicapper Steve Seagrave breaks down his top NFL player prop picks across several of the biggest games on the Week 1 schedule. This week’s NFL prop bets include quarterback props, wide receiver props, running back props and anytime touchdown props, with Seagrave targeting passing touchdowns, passing yards, receiving yards and touchdown scorer markets.

Whether you’re searching for NFL Week 1 player props, NFL prop predictions, NFL betting picks or the best NFL props today, this guide covers six player prop bets featuring Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Kayshon Boutte, Ladd McConkey, David Montgomery and Jaxson Dart.

NFL Week 1 Quarterback Props

NFL Week 1 Quarterback Prop Prediction #1

Kyler Murray Minnesota Vikings OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+116) CZR

Kyler Murray finally has a ton of weapons at his disposal again as he’s joined a Minnesota Vikings team that includes wide receivers Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison and tight end TJ Hockenson.

Murray will be very familiar with the Packers defense as Jonathan Gannon is the new defensive coordinator in Green Bay and he was Murray’s head coach in Arizona during the past three seasons.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is an offensive innovator, and Murray’s mobility will extremely valuable especially at home on the fast track.

The Green Bay pass rush will be limited as they will be missing their most important player as Micah Parsons (12.5 sacks 2025) has landed on the PUP list. We saw multiple opposing quarterbacks clear this line against the Packers at the end of the 2025 campaign and I fully expect 2+ passing TDs from Murray in his Vikings debut.

NFL Week 1 Quarterback Prop Prediction #2

Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals OVER 267.5 Passing Yards (-114) FD

Joe Burrow enters the 2026 campaign as the odds-on favorite to lead the NFL in passing and he’s projected to record the most pass attempts of any quarterback on the Week 1 slate.

Burrow dealt with injuries last season, but he still managed to record 284+ passing yards in 3 of his last 5 games and he should get more pass protection with all five of his starting offensive linemen returning to action. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the 6th most passing yards last season (254.8/game) while also allowing the MOST yards after the catch.

This game sets up as a shootout with the highest total on the board (50.5) and the game script should favor Burrow as the Bengals are -3.5-point home favorites. Bryce Young managed to throw for 266 yards against Tampa Bay in a critical game that decided the NFC South and I’m banking on “Joe Shiesty” beating that number.

NFL Week 1 Running Back Props

NFL Week 1 RB Prop Prediction #1

Omarion Hampton OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FD

The Los Angeles Chargers started last season with Najee Harris as their #1 running back but he tore his Achilles in Week 3. Omarion Hampton stepped in and finished with 545 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns despite missing seven games himself.

Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball as he doesn’t want to see his quarterback Justin Herbert absorb another 54 sacks. The Chargers have Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater returning to their offensive line plus the additions of Cole Strange and Jake Slaughter to the interior.

Last season, 24.2% of Hampton’s carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage and that was the 4th highest mark in the league among qualified running backs.

Mike McDaniel has taken over as the Offensive Coordinator and he’s known as one of the best run designers in football. We have seen De’Von Achane thrive under McDaniel in the past.

The Arizona Cardinals allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing backs in 2025 with an average of 113.3 per game. Keaton Mitchell has been limited in practice so Hampton could see an even larger workload and the game script should be perfect with the Chargers being favored by -10.

NFL Week 1 RB Prop Prediction #2

Rico Dowdle Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-112) FD

Rico Dowdle is splitting the workload with Jaylen Warren who has been in Pittsburgh much longer, but Dowdle is Mike McCarthy’s guy, and I fully expect him to see a more productive season in 2026.

Dowdle covered this line in 10 of his last 14 games in his first and final season in Carolina while finished the 2025 campaign with 1,076 rushing yards on 236 attempts.

The Atlanta Falcons ranked slightly below average in rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs in 2025 with an average of 101.6 yards per game.

This Falcons defense will be vulnerable in the early season as Jalon Walker is out for the season, JD Bertrand is out, James Pearce Jr is suspended, and Za’Darius Smith & Billy Bowman have both been limited in practice.

Dowdle has a rush attempts line set at 11.5 and if he eclipses that number, we will only need to average 3.7 yards per carry to beat this line. Pittsburgh is now favored by -5.5 at home after Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury at practice and that should lead to an ideal game script.

NFL Week 1 Wide Receiver Props

NFL Week 1 WR Prop Prediction #1

Kayshon Boutte Houston Texans OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FD

We are getting a lower number here partially due to the fact that Kayshon Boutte was just traded to the Houston Texans a few weeks ago. Jayden Higgins is out for the season, and Boutte is going to be his replacement.

Boutte will be playing opposite of Nico Collins who will draw tons of defensive attention while leaving open looks. Boutte cleared this line in 11/18 (61%) while playing with the New England Patriots in 2025 while recording 30 and 43 receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills.

He also crushed this line in both head-to-head games against Buffalo in 2024 with 117 and 95 yards. Boutte is a deep threat who has the ability to beat this number with one grab, so we don’t necessarily need a ton of targets.

NFL Week 1 WR Prop Prediction #2

Ladd McConkey Los Angeles Chargers OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112) FD

Ladd McConkey dealt with injuries in 2025, so he finished with only 789 receiving yards on 66 receptions a season after he finished with 1,149 yards on 82 receptions in his 2024 rookie season.

Now McConkey is the clear cut #1 option in Los Angeles as Keenan Allen and his 7.4 targets per game are out of the picture. Mike McDaniel is the Chargers new offensive coordinator and he’s known for finding open space for his wide outs.

During the past two seasons, Tyreek Hill saw 46 screen passes and McDaniel will surely draw up those types of plays for McConkey. The Arizona Cardinals ranked middle of the pack in yards allowed to opposing wide receivers but they struggled against players who get into space. Look for McDaniel to utilize McConkey early and often.

NFL Week 1 Touchdown Props

NFL Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Prop Prediction #1

David Montgomery Houston Texans (-110) MGM

We already posted a future play on David Montgomery to go over 7.5 touchdowns on the season as he’s finished 8, 12 and 13 touchdowns during the last three seasons despite splitting the workload with arguably the best running back in the NFL in Jahmyr Gibbs.

Joe Mixon saw the bulk of the workload during the past two seasons in Houston but he’s out of the picture leaving Woody Marks as Montgomery’s only real competition in the Texans backfield. Montgomery draws an elite matchup in Week 1 as the Buffalo Bills allowed the MOST running back rushing touchdowns (18) during the 2026 campaign.

Monty is set to see a heavy workload in Week 1 with a rush attempts line set at 13.5 and the Texans have an elite defense that should give their offense some short fields to work with and that could lead to additional scoring chances.

NFL Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Prop Prediction #2

Jaxson Dart New York Giants (+220) MGM

Jaxson Dart started 12 games during his rookie season, and he scored in 7 of those games while finishing the season with 9 total rushing touchdowns and an average of 34.8 rushing yards per game. Dart’s 9.5% scramble rate as a rookie was second behind only Drake Maye (10.3%) among qualified quarterbacks.

Now Dart draws an elite matchup against a Dallas Cowboys defense that allowed the MOST quarterback rushing touchdowns (8) and 3rd most quarterback rushing yards (avg 23.4/game) during the 2025 campaign. Dallas ranked #1 in pressure rate last season so are going to see Dart tuck & run especially in the red zone.

New Giants head coach John Harbaugh will be bringing a Ravens-inspired offense to New York so Dart will also see his number called frequently on designed runs. The Cowboys are favored by 3 points with a huge total set at 48 and that should lead to a game script that keeps the Giants offense aggressive throughout this contest.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

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