2026 Arizona Football Preview and Win Total Prediction
Texas Tech and BYU drew most of the headlines in the Big XII last year, but the Arizona football program quietly made some big strides under second-year head coach Brent Brennan and offensive coordinator Seth Doege. How much momentum can the Wildcats carry from last year’s nine-win season?
2026 Arizona Football Preview
Big XII Betting Odds
| Team | 2025 Record | 2026 Win Total | B12 Odds | Make CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 9-4 (6-3) | 7.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +1900 | +1000 |
| Arizona State | 8-5 (6-3) | 6.5 (o -115 / u -105) | +2500 | +1200 |
| Baylor | 5-7 (3-6) | 5.5 (o -165 / u +135) | +4500 | +2500 |
| BYU | 12-2 (8-2) | 8.5 (o -150 / u +125) | +550 | +330 |
| Cincinnati | 7-6 (5-4) | 5.5 (o +125 / u -150) | +10000 | +5000 |
| Colorado | 3-9 (1-8) | 4.5 (o +135 / u -160) | +9000 | +9000 |
| Houston | 10-3 (6-3) | 8.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +1600 | +850 |
| Iowa State | 8-4 (5-4) | 4.5 (o -170 / u +135) | +11000 | +7000 |
| Kansas | 5-7 (3-6) | 5.5 (o -155 / u +130) | +4500 | +3000 |
| Kansas State | 6-6 (5-4) | 8.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +1500 | +750 |
| Oklahoma State | 1-11 (0-9) | 6.5 (o +120 / u -140) | +3000 | +2000 |
| TCU | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o +125 / u -150) | +3000 | +1200 |
| Texas Tech | 12-2 (9-1) | 10.5 (o -200 / u +160) | -105 | -200 |
| Central Florida | 5-7 (2-7) | 5.5 (o -140 / u +120) | +6200 | +3000 |
| Utah | 11-2 (7-2) | 8.5 (o -150 / u +125) | +650 | +350 |
| West Virginia | 4-8 (2-7) | 5.5 (o -160 / u +135) | +5000 | +4000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 1. The Wildcats went 9-4 straight-up, 8-5 against the spread last year with a narrow loss to SMU in the Holiday Bowl. Arizona’s last five games all stayed under the total as the Wildcats’ defense allowed an average of 18.2 points per game over the final six contests.
2026 Arizona Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 8 (Five on offense and three on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Noah Fifita (Returning)
Returning Production: 60-percent (66-percent on offense and 55-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 44 Nationally / No. 7 in Big XII
Coaching Changes: No major changes. Head coach Brent Brennan, offensive coordinator Seth Doege and defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales all return to Tucson.
Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2026 Arizona Football Outlook
Webster’s dictionary defines a mulligan as… “a free shot sometimes given to a golfer in informal play when the previous shot was poorly played.” In football parlance, there is another definition of a mulligan which was deployed by Arizona after the 2024 season.
For the Wildcats, and specifically head coach Brent Brennan, it was a “gridiron” mulligan…forgiveness (though most likely only partial) for a season gone bad. “Football mulligans” are usually limited to first-year coaches (in Brennan’s case two years ago) or for a rash of injuries that might deplete a squad. The catch with “football mulligans” is that a coach usually gets only one of those per job assignment…and sometimes, not even that much.
Brent Brennan’s Future
In Brennan’s case, he might have been lucky to receive one after his first Wildcats edition in 2024 sagged to 4-8, and even that was flattering considering the way Arizona football performed for much of that autumn.
On the heels of a 10-3 breakthrough campaign in the preceding 2023 that former head coach Jedd Fisch parlayed into the head coaching gig at Washington, Brennan, who arrived after good success at San Jose State (not the easiest place to win), was under fire for the Wildcats’ dramatic drop-off that also included just two spread covers in 12 tries.
By the time rival Arizona State got done chewing up the Cats by a 49-7 count in the Territorial Cup finale, some in Tucson were recalling the very short tenure of hoops head coach Ben Lindsey, who had won at lower-level Grand Canyon, including an NAIA title, but struggled in his one season in charge for the Arizona hoopsters in 1982-83.
After a 4-24 mark, Lindsey walked the plank, to be replaced by…Lute Olson, and the rest is history for Arizona hoops. Some oldtimers in the desert were thinking a football version of Olson might appear if Brennan got the same treatment as did Lindsey.
Yet Brennan was able to hang onto his job last year and then some after the promise of a staff shake-up, which cost several of his assistants from San Jose an invitation back for a second tour of duty with Arizona.
An Improving Offense
The most important add to the assistant ranks last year might have been offensive coordinator Seth Doege, whose roots go back to Mike Leach’s last two years at Texas Tech where Doege played QB. Plucked from Marshall, where his first stint as an OC in 2024 resulted in some big numbers for the Sun Belt champion Thundering Herd, Doege hit the ground running in Tucson as the offense perked up noticeably last season to 31.5 points per game.
The Cats also more than doubled their projected win total last fall, up to nine wins, with only one real subpar effort at Iowa State. Indeed, Arizona was a play away from beating both BYU and Houston, and avenged the 2024 blowout to the Sun Devils by whipping them 23-7 in Tempe. Many regional observers thought the Wildcats would have provided better opposition for Texas Tech in the Big XII title game than did BYU.
Comfy running the Doege uptempo is fourth-year QB Noah Fifita, whose continuing presence on the Wildcats’ roster speaks to some level of NIL support in Tucson as Fifita could have commanded a very nice price in the marketplace had he decided to leave the Cats at any time the past three offseasons. Though a bit pocket-sized at 5-foot-10 and only 190 pounds, Fifita has proven fearless and quite durable in his three years as a starter, passing for better than 9,000 yards and with 73 TD passes (vs. only 24 picks).
Drill a bit deeper, however, and will note similarities between his stats in his year under Fisch (25 TD passes and just six picks in 2023) and Doege (29 TD passes and just six picks last year). In the disappointing 2024 in Tucson, Fifita’s numbers dropped noticeably (18 TD passes and 12 picks). Indeed, that Fifita and Doege have been on the same page since the start of last season bodes well for Noah going out with a bang as a senior this fall.
Fresh Faces in Tucson
There is familiarity within the receiving corps as returnees Tre Spivey III, Chris Hunter and Giovanni Richardson combined for 1,052 yards worth of receptions in 2025. Balance is likely to be provided by returnee RB Kedrick Reescano, who scored nine TDs on his 84 carries last fall, while Marshall transfer Antwan Roberts, familiar to Doege from his days with the Thundering Herd, motored for 512 yards rushing and a brisk 5.7 yards per carry last fall in the Sun Belt.
There is also experience on the offensive line augmented by Washington transfer Zachary Henning, penciled in at center. One area where Brennan would like to see improvement is at place kicker, where returnee Michael Salgado-Medina missed 12 of 31 field goal tries a year ago, and could face competition in fall camp.
It wasn’t all offense that jump-started the Wildcats last year, however, as the defense made a big jump as well under defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales, a Rocky Long disciple who was promoted from linebackers coach after 2024. Gonzales, the head coach at New Mexico prior to joining Brennan’s staff, has past experiences as a defensive coordinator at San Diego State (for Long) and Arizona State under Herm Edwards.
The Wildcats attacked on defense last year for Gonzales, recording a Super Bowl-shuffle Bears-like 31 takeaways, key to a nation’s second-best +18 turnover margin and a defense that improved to 19th overall.
Gonzales rotated his defensive line all season as almost all of the returnees saw meaningful snaps last fall, with DE Tre Smith granted a sixth-year of eligibility after last October’s shoulder surgery. Along with bruising 292-lb nose tackle Leroy Palu and linebackers Taye Brown and Chase Kennedy, there are plenty of experienced playmakers in the front seven.
Where Gonzales will have to shuffle is in a secondary that would form an effective no-fly zone last season when Arizona ranked 7th nationally in pass defense (only 163 passing yards per game allowed). Three of those defensive backs – Dalton Johnson, Genesis Smith, and Treydan Stukes – would be taken in the NFL Draft, however, and reinforcements likely come from the portal. One of those, safety Malcolm Hartzog Jr, started 32 games the past three seasons at Nebraska, and has eight career picks.
Arizona Wildcats Win Total Prediction
We admit to wondering about the Brennan hire in 2024, and consider last season as a Mariano Rivera-like save job for the Arizona football coach, who is back on secure footing after the nice recovery a year ago.
Optimistic sorts in Tucson think the Wildcats might be a worthwhile longshot bet to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, as we note that the selection committee hasn’t gone two-deep in the Big XII either of the past two years.
With Fifita running the Doege offense, the Wildcats have a puncher’s chance against anyone on the schedule, though it would help if the defense finds some new ballhawks to replace the turnover mavens in the secondary who have departed.
We’ll find out quick if Arizona is serious about making a real run. Week 2 has a revenge date at BYU with the winner likely to emerge as Texas Tech’s biggest challenger in the loop. Arizona also must travel to Lubbock to face the Red Raiders on Halloween, and, as always, there’s old, nasty rival Arizona State in the Territorial Cup on Thanksgiving weekend.
It wouldn’t surprise us if the Wildcats and Texas Tech meet twice, the second time in the Big XII title game, though it’s the latter that Arizona is probably going to have to win to get invited to the postseason party. We expect the Wildcats to have long since cleared this 7.5 win total. OVER 7.5 Wins
2026 Arizona Football Schedule
| Date | Day | Home/Away | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5 | Sat | Home | Northern Arizona |
| September 12 | Sat | Road | BYU |
| September 19 | Sat | Home | Northern Illinois |
| September 26 | Sat | Road | Washington State |
| October 3 | Sat | Home | Cincinnati |
| October 10 | Sat | Road | West Virginia |
| Bye | |||
| October 24 | Sat | Home | Iowa State |
| October 31 | Sat | Road | Texas Tech |
| November 6 | Fri | Home | TCU |
| November 14 | Sat | Home | Utah |
| November 21 | Sat | Road | Kansas State |
| November 28 | Sat | Home | Arizona State |
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
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