UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje Picks, Predictions and Odds June 14, 2026
UFC Freedom 250 Betting Preview
UFC Freedom 250 picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for June 14, 2026 with the main event headlined by Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje in a lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from The South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC.
Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on Total Bases. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.
WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje: UFC Freedom 250 Main Event
| Sunday, June 14 | UFC Freedom 250 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Ilia Topuria -625 vs Justin Gaethje +460 |
| Rounds: | 1.5 (Over -112 / Under -112) |
| Fight Time: | Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT |
| Arena: | South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
UFC Freedom 250 Undercard Predictions
Alex Pereira (-113) vs Ciryl Gane (-110)
This is a difficult fight to handicap. Pereira moves up to heavyweight chasing another title, and the power is obviously real. If he lands clean, he can end anyone’s night. The concern is whether that power carries the same impact over five rounds against a true heavyweight.
I lean Gane here. He’s extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has the style to make things difficult. He can strike at range, work from the clinch, and slow the pace against the fence. Over five rounds, I trust Gane’s cardio and activity more than Pereira’s.
Pereira is heavily reliant on finding the knockout, while Gane has multiple ways to win rounds. Slight lean to Gane by decision.
Sean O’Malley (-435) vs Aiemann Zahabi (+330)
O’Malley should roll here. The length advantage, footwork, and jab are all major problems for Zahabi. To beat O’Malley, you generally need relentless wrestling pressure, and that’s exactly what Merab Dvalishvili used in O’Malley’s recent losses.
Zahabi doesn’t have that kind of game. He’s not aggressive enough to consistently close distance and force O’Malley into uncomfortable situations. Expect O’Malley to manage range, pile up volume, and put on a striking clinic for three rounds.
Derrick Lewis (+285) vs Josh Hokit (-375)
Hokit has quickly become one of the more talked-about prospects in the division after three exciting UFC wins. He’s shown power, wrestling, and proved in his last fight that he can maintain a high pace for all three rounds.
Lewis still carries fight-ending power, but the speed and athleticism have declined significantly. He’s become increasingly dependent on landing one huge shot.
That’s the danger for Hokit. If he gets careless, Lewis can change the fight instantly. But if Hokit stays disciplined, his pressure, pace, and output should overwhelm Lewis over time. Hokit is the pick.
Mauricio Ruffy (-625) vs Michael Chandler (+450)
Chandler might finally be at the end of the road. His fights have always been wars, and the damage has piled up. He’s lost three straight and five of his last six, with the lone win coming against a severely declining Tony Ferguson.
The pressure and aggression are still there, but the speed, durability, and reaction time don’t look the same. That’s a dangerous combination against someone like Ruffy.
Ruffy is an explosive striker whose biggest weakness is takedown defense. Fortunately for him, Chandler hasn’t consistently relied on wrestling offensively in recent years. Stylistically, this is a great matchup for Ruffy. Ruffy should get the win.
Bo Nickal (-335) vs Kyle Daukaus (+250)
I’ll take a shot on the underdog here. This event is outdoors and could be contested in hot conditions. Nickal’s entire game revolves around heavy wrestling, and if the fighters are slick and sweaty early, those entries become more difficult.
Daukaus is a capable wrestler himself, so Nickal may not enjoy the overwhelming grappling advantage he usually has. On the feet, Daukaus is clearly the more polished striker. Nickal absolutely has the wrestling upside to dominate, but at these odds I prefer taking a chance on Daukaus.
Diego Lopes (-165) vs Steve Garcia (+144)
This might be the best fight on the card. Lopes is an outstanding overall fighter, but his biggest weakness remains defensive striking. Garcia has legitimate knockout power and can capitalize if Lopes gets careless.
Lopes’ only recent losses have come against elite names like Movsar Evloev and Alexander Volkanovski, which speaks to his quality. But even in wins, we’ve seen openings. Against Jean Silva, he was absorbing significant damage before landing a fight-changing spinning elbow.
Garcia has the cardio to push for all three rounds and should have success standing. Lopes owns the grappling advantage, but he isn’t a dominant wrestler who can simply dictate where the fight takes place.
I think this stays on the feet more than people expect, and that gives Garcia a real chance to pull the upset. Garcia is my pick.
UFC Freedom 250 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
Topuria by knockout is the popular pick, and it’s hard to argue against it. He’s the most dynamic striker in the sport right now and is coming off three straight knockout wins against elite competition. The only concern is whether outside distractions affect him, but inside the cage he’s been nearly flawless.
Gaethje has won two straight fights, but the last truly elite striker he faced was Max Holloway, who outclassed him for most of the fight before scoring a brutal knockout. At 37 years old and after years of absorbing damage, Gaethje simply doesn’t appear to be the same athlete.
His best chance is probably attacking the legs early or mixing in unexpected wrestling to slow Topuria down. I don’t think he can consistently do either anymore. It’s the kind of fight that could bust parlays if something crazy happens, but Topuria by KO is the pick.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
