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UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 22

UFC Fight Night Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for April 22nd with Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes Betting Odds

Saturday, April 22 UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline: Sergei Pavlovich +145 vs Curtis Blaydes -170
Rounds: 1.5 Rounds (Over +105 / Under -135)
Fight Time: Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Last weekend was a great weekend for us as we hit all of our PFL and UFC plays, we  just have a couple tied up in parlays that we have to wait to cash (76ers to win series  over Brooklyn for example), and we have a 5% BEST BET up for this weekends card. 

We’ve hit 69% of these Best Bets this year so if we keep that up, it will be a record year.  

Grab that play here: 

Last week we focused on overs as the distance props seemed to make more sense to  us when we handicapped, I would say there are a lot of fights I don’t have strong  opinions on, but there are several that I have very strong opinions on with results and  distances.

KO Of The Week: Francis Marshall Will KO William Gomis

Francis Marshall is a legit prospect who is 7-0 with five finishes, and he has power on the feet and a great ground game.

He made it on Contender Series and put on a great showing as he dominated Connor Matthews. It went down as a decision win, but he beat up Matthews real good and bloodied him up good.

In his UFC debut he fought Marcelo Rojo who isn’t great, but is a veteran who is 16-10 in his career. Marshall looked a bit tentative in his UFC debut, but quickly settled and KO’d Rojo in the second showing off his power.

Gomis doesn’t have power that scares anyone at the UFC level. He’s fought really bad competition and is a French fighter that got his first UFC fight because they had an event in Paris last year.

He likes to take guys down, but doesn’t have good submission skills or vicious ground and poundl. Marshall is better everywhere, and can finish anywhere this fight goes.

I expect Marshall to realize real quick that Gomis doesn’t have the power to finish so Marshall should be able to tee off with his strikes and pressure forward to take it to the ground if he wants.

Even if Gomis is able to get it to the ground, Marshall is too powerful for him and should be able to reverse position or just stand back up. Marshall has the much better offense, and I expect a finish from him in this one.


For a good reason, Marlon Vera is a fan favourite, as his rise to UFC contention has been well documented, beating great talent at every corner and fighting the most challenging fights.

Vera has drawn one of the most dreadful schedules of late as he’s faced off with former champion Dominick Cruz and the likes of Sean O’Malley and Rob Font. But he’s managed to defeat them all with the battering style that rarely sees him ever out of a fight.

Vera has some excellent skills on the feet as he mixes his attacks up very well while boasting some strong BJJ understanding as he’s secured three submission victories inside the octagon.

Vera will be looking to create chaos and bring war out of Cory Sandhagen, where Vera is the best in the world.

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Brady Hiestand +115 v Batgerel Danaa -140

I’m not high on Heistand, and even though Danaa has lost two in a row, they were against opponents much better than Hiestand. Hiestand will have to get this to the ground to win, I think Danaa keeps it on the feet and gets the decision win.

Karine Sivla -190 v Priscila Cachoeira +160 

This should be a fun fight as both can finish fights. Cachoeira is 4-1 in her last five UFC  fights, and three of her wins have been KOs.

Her loss was a submission loss to  Robertson, and that’s interesting because Silva is 2-0 in the UFC with two submission  wins. Either of these fighters can finish, but I would look at this fight to not go the  distance. 

Montel Jackson -600 v Rani Yahya +430 

I get that Yahya is 38, and Jackson should win, but Yahya is 5-1 in his last six UFC  fights, and although he hasn’t fought since late 2021 he has the grappling game to  compete with Jackson.

Jackson should be able to use his jab and length to establish  distance on the feet, but on the ground this is much closer than -600.

Jackson has  never been finished and Yahya hasn’t been finished since 2009 so take this one to go  the distance, and avoid putting this in your parlays as the price isn’t right.

Ricky Glen -175 v Christos Giagos +145 

Neither of these guys have an impressive resume as Giagos has gotten smoked in his  last two fights when he stepped up in competition which is the story of his UFC career. 

His losses are to some pretty big names (Charles Oliveira, Drakkar Klose, Arman  Trarukyan, and Thiago Moises), but they were so lopsided it makes it hard to trust him. 

Glen doesn’t have a great resume as well, but his last fight against Dawson ended up a  draw as he lost the first two rounds to Dawson and then got a 10-8 in the third to get the draw. His stamina was incredible in that fight, and for that reason I think he wins by taking Giagos down and wearing him out.

Jeremiah Wells -110 v Matthew Semelsberger -110 

This is a great spot for Wells to get a win over a UFC veteran. Semelsberger has fought  some pretty bad fighters on his way to a 5-2 record, and the best two fighters he’s faced  he lost in unanimous decisions.

He’s had underwhelming wins against Jake Matthews and AJ Fletcher and has massive holes in his striking defense.

Wells has three finishes in his three UFC fights, and there’s a possibility it happens again. Wells has massive  power, and can exploit the lack of striking defense from Semelsberger.

I think this is a  bad matchup for Matthew and I think this could start a stretch of fights where  Semelsberger gets exposed and could lose a few fights in a row as he isn’t fighting  tomato cans anymore.

Ricky Simon -140 v Song Yarding +115 

We correctly predicted Simon to beat Jack Shore as an underdog as he’s really improved his game since losing to Rob Font and Uriah Faber back to back in 2019. 

This fight will come down to if Song Yadong can withstand the chain wrestling and  power of Simon. In his last fight. Yadong stepped up in competition and got worked  over by Sandhagen until the doctor stopped the fight because of a deep cut above the eye.

He showed toughness, and great cardio, but it also showed the 25 year old he  wasn’t ready for this level of fight as Sandhagen put on a striking clinic.

Yadong’s previous two wins were by KO, but they were against Marlon Moraes, who gets knocked out by literally everyone right now, and against Julio Arce who is 3-4 in his last seven UFC fights.

Simon is in his prime at 30 years old and if he fights like he did against Shore, he’ll get Yadong down and inflict enough damage to get the win, which is what I  think he’ll do. It should be a great fight, I’ll side with Ricky in the co-main, but it’s not  anything I’ll be betting on.

Curtis Blaydes -175 v Sergei Pavlovich +145 

Can Pavlovich land his kill shots before Blaydes gets him on the ground? That’s what  this fight comes down to. Blaydes has some fascinating results recently.

Aspinall blew  out his knee 15 seconds into the fight so he gets credit for a KO, before that he knocked  out Chris Daukus who has gotten knocked out three games in a row, before that a decision win over Rozenstruik, and before that he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis. 

Pavlovich has never seen the second round in a UFC fight and has two KO’s over Tuivasa and Lewis in his last two fights.

Blaydes can’t stand and bang for very long  against Sergei so this fight is going to come down to if Sergei lands his big shots right  as the fight starts before Blaydes shoots for the takedown.

Once it gets on the ground  it’s Blaydes all day. I won’t be betting it, but the value is on Pavlovich to win to KO.

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