2026 NL Central Betting Preview with Win Total Predictions

2026 NL Central Betting Preview

WagerTalk handicapper and GoldSheet’s featured writer Bruce Marshall shares his thoughts on how the NL Central will shake out in 2026. Bruce breaks down the key acquisitions and departures on each team with recommendations in the regular season win totals market for the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Pirates and Cardinals.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Longtime fans (like us) of the Pittsburgh Pirates (78.5) are conditioned to be skeptical about any rosy prognostications for the Buccos. They tend to expect the worst in the ‘burgh, and who could blame the supporters; after all, no winning seasons since 2018, and no playoffs since 2016, tends to weight on even an optimistic fan base. Especially with a win total that would mark a franchise high for the past decade and on the heels of a discouraging 2025 when regressing five wins from both 2023 and 2024.

So why the excitement? Well, for the first time in a long while, the Pirates acted like a contender, or at least a semi-contender, in the offseason. The offense needed upgrades, and GM Ben Cherington, after being oh-so-cautious the past few years in the marketplace, tried to do something about it, acquiring All-Star 2B Brandon Lowe from the Rays and another All-Star, ex-Orioles 1B/DH Ryan OI’Hearn, in an unusually active offseason before adding even more before the Grapefruit League commenced by signing OF Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $12 million deal…all three they types of moves we haven’t seen from the Bucs in a long while.

A bounce-back year from LF Bryan Reynolds, and the flashy Oneil Cruz perhaps ready to flourish now that he’s not going to be expected to carry the offense, offer further hope.

Which is all Pirates fans ask of the attack, as the arms look top-rate, with Paul Skenes an early Cy Young favorite, Bubba Chandler offering tantalizing upside, and Jared Jones slated back from Tommy John surgery in June to headline a solid-looking rotation.

Meanwhile, Dennis Santana proved capable of handling closer duties after David Bednar was dealt to the Yanks at last summer’s deadline. We also admit to liking the decision to keep uber-prospect SS Konnor Griffin in the minors to start the season; at only 19, he’s the best everyday prospect in the bigs, but no reason to rush him after he cooled off some the past month in Bradenton after a boffo spring debut.

No matter, they deserve a winner in Pittsburgh, with the best ballpark (PNC), the best food in a ballpark (debatable maybe, but try Manny Sangullen’s BBQ in left field), and by us the best announcing crew (alternating play-by-play men Greg Brown and Joe Block) in the bigs. Let’s complete the circle and go “over” in the ‘burgh.

St Louis Cardinals

It seems odd to be a bit bullish on the Bucs and a bit bearish on the St Louis Cardinals (69.5). Especially as the marketplace has already built lower expectations into the Redbirds’ season-win number; it would take a drop of nine wins from a season ago to land beneath 69.5.

Has St Louis really regressed that much on the field? Perhaps, but it’s other developments that suggest the Cards are a team and franchise in transition, with new head honcho Chaim Bloom taking over the baseball operation from the long-serving John Mozeliak, and with a mandate from owner Bill DeWitt, Jr to start the rebuild and not worry as much about the short-term.

Not the best news for a passionate fan base that has been used to so much more, but the past three seasons have been sobering, no playoffs and no closer than 10 games in the Central (it was 19 games back last summer), so the supporters aren’t going to get blindsided by a further backslide.

The clear-out of the old guard seems complete after vet 3B Nolan Arenado was moved to the D-backs in January, but none of the replacements from within the organization have come close to kicking-on at the big league level, at least not yet (some believe top prospect JJ Wehterholt might be the guy, and it looks like he’ll be at 2B from the outset, but he’s yet to have an MLB at-bat).

There’s also a woeful lack of sock in the lineup unless 3B Nolan Gorman, with the position now to himself after Arenado’s departure, rediscovers promising power potential last flashed in 2023, but the likes of OFs Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II and SS Masyn Winn remain works in progress.

Oh yes, the pitching staff, which seems depleted after Sonny Gray was moved to the Bosox and Miles Mikolas left for the Nats, with Matthew Liberatore a dubious candidate to become the ace and lots of question marks behind him, and no established closer in the bullpen.

A visit to Busch is still worthwhile, especially if staying at the nearby Doubletree with a view of the Arch (a good visit, too), all within walking distance of the ballpark, where the Cards HOF might be the best team version in the bigs (the Reds have a case, too). Though, we’re afraid, not a lot to cheer about in ‘26 for the Redbirds…it’s an “under” for us in the ‘Lou.

Milwaukee Brewers

There is something of a consensus that the Milwaukee Brewers (84.5) might have missed their best chance in a generation to get back to the World Series last October, when the Dodgers reminded that regular-season meetings often don’t mean a hoot in the playoffs by steamrollering the Brew Crew in the NLCS. Yet, has the marketplace overreacted by downgrading the Milwaukee win total so drastically after posting a 97-65 mark last season and a third straight Central crown?

Though moving staff ace Freddy Peralta to the Mets in the offseason, there’s no reason to believe the pitching + defense formula that has served homespun skipper Pat Murphy so well the past two seasons will be any less functional It was staff depth that helped the rotation post a third-best ERA with four starters posting sub-4.00 ERAs, and Peralta moving aside also creates room for flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski to emerge as the ace of a rotation that still features a fully functional Brandon Woodruff, who returned successfully last summer from shoulder problems.

Quinn Priester, one of the revelations of last summer, opens the season on the IL due to a nerve issue in his wrist, but is expected back by May. The departure of Peralta shouldn’t cause Miller to shut down its local brewery, either; Milwaukee has moved out several key cogs the past few seasons; last year, the Brew Crew had to replace SS Willy Adames and SP Corbin Burnes, plus closer Devin Williams, and never skipped a beat.

Now, there is still the question if the Brewers have enough offense to get to the World Series, as across-the-board offensive numbers are very modest for a legit contender, though LF Jackson Chourio has hinted at a major breakthrough, as has 2B Brice Turang. And there’s still Christian Yelich, flourishing later in his career with a move to DH. Will Milwaukee be as good as last season? Perhaps not.

Will the Brewers drop at least 13 wins from a year ago? We seriously doubt it…and why we look “over” at what they used to call Miller Park.

Chicago Cubs

It is often said that the jump from being a contender to the next level of would-be-champions is a pretty steep one. We’ll see if the Chicago Cubs (88.5) can navigate that chasm after getting back to the playoffs a year ago for the first time since the abbreviated 2020 Covid campaign.

Still, for a while it seemed like 2025 was going to deliver more, but barely playing .500 ball after the All-Star break, and allowing the Brewers, once far behind, to collar them in the Central, was a jolt to a fan base always looking for a reason to celebrate.

GM Carter Hawkins didn’t exactly sit on his hands in the offseason, inking 3B Alex Bregman from the Bosox, and adding rotation piece Edward Cabrera from the Marlins, but the Cubs let their big fish, RF Kyle Tucker, walk in free agency (to the dastardly Dodgers, of all teams!).

Hawkins also re-upped CF Pete Crow-Armstrong with a six-year deal in March after his breakout 2025 (with 31 homers, plus elite defense and speed on the basepath), but after cooling considerably beyond the All-Star break, not everyone is sure PCA was worth that investment–at least yet–and if the Cubs were simply looking for something positive to offer the fan base after Tucker’s departure.

We also wonder about having journeyman Matthew Boyd at the top of the rotation after his surprise emergence, out of the blue, really, as a potential ace last season, especially considering how he cooled off in September, and Shota Imanaga, who signed a qualifying offer to return for another season, returns reluctantly to the rotation after underwhelming a year ago. The staff upside is with young Cade Horton, who impressed as a rookie last summer when finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year balloting.

There is potential in the lineup with the addition of Bregman to a core that includes the aforementioned PCA, reliable SS Dansby Swanson, and 1B Michael Busch (34 homers last season), and after being overly cautious at the deadline last season, content among other things to catch what might have been lightning in a bottle with Boyd, we suspect that Hawkins will be more aggressive if upgrades are required this summer. Another plus is manager Craig Counsell, whose teams have rarely underachieved in Milwaukee or Chicago.

The Cubs can still regress a bit from last year and clear 88.5, but it’s not much of a stretch to envision reaching 90 wins again, either, so we’ll go ahead and look “over” at Wrigley Field.

Cincinnati Reds

That the Cincinnati Reds (80.5) made it to the postseason a year ago was a real feather in the cap of manager Terry Francona, who resurfaced for what looked something of a valedictory tour after past successes in Boston and Cleveland.

Though the Reds seemed to have too many holes to mount a real challenge, the bar became set pretty low in the NL for the final wild card spot, and Francona was able to push enough buttons and squeeze just enough out of his pitching staff to get to 83 wins, which is all it took to sneak in ahead of the disappointing Mets and Giants.

An encore, however, already looks like it might be a challenge as staff ace Hunter Greene, with Cy Young potential, will be on the shelf likely thru the All-Star break, if not a bit longer, with his latest injury (bone chips in the elbow), and we wonder if young Chase Burns and Andrew Abbott can pick up where they left off in 2025 and carry the rotation until Greene returns.

Even if the staff, which also uncovered a serviceable closer last year in Emilio Pagan (32 saves), continues to hold its own, we’re not sure about an offense that to this point simply hasn’t scored a lot of runs. We, and others, keep waiting for SS Elly De La Cruz to make the jump to superstardom, but at times that feels a long way off as inconsistency plagued his performance pattern last season.

Perhaps the Cincy plight is best summed up by 3B KeBryan Hayes, who arrived from the Pirates midway last season and added solid glove work at the hot corner, but providing almost nothing at the plate, and surely much less than is usually required from a third baseman or first baseman, where most opponents have some sock. The rest of the lineup doesn’t excite too much, either, unless touted 1B Sal Stewart, who hinted at some upside in a brief September appearance, picks up where Joey Votto left off a couple of years ago (Stewart could also feature at DH).

Remember, a lot went right for the Reds just to hit to 83 wins a season ago, and not sure we see enough upgrades (at least yet) to expect anything better, with the Hunter Greene absence a potential damaging blow to the staff. Cincy will be dong well to get where it was last season, and we suspect the Reds fall just short…”under” for us at Great American Ballpark, though we’ll be sure to have a few coneys and a 3-way at the Skyline Chili stands throughout the park when we make a summer visit.

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