Jeff Michaels

THE PLAY: Denver Nuggets -6.0 (-110)

(555) Denver Nuggets at (556) Golden State Warriors: Spread

Denver Nuggets -6.0 (-110)

1. System Performance:

   • NBA teams with at least 2 days of rest facing an opponent coming off a win by at least 28 points (with at least 29 free throw attempts in that game) holds a dismal record of 1-17 (5.6%) ATS.

2. Golden State Warriors Performance:

   • Current Roster Issues: The Warriors are currently without Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, which severely affects their offensive capabilities and overall team performance.

   • Recent ATS Record: They are 3-9 (25%) ATS in their last games, including 0-6 ATS at home, suggesting significant difficulties when playing in their venue without their star players.

3. Denver Nuggets Performance:

   • Recent Road Success: The Nuggets have performed well recently with a 5-2 (71.4%) record in their last 7 road games, which indicates their ability to compete effectively away from home.

   • Strong Record After Road Games: They have an impressive 8-1 record away off a road game, excluding one ATS loss while favored by 10.5 points. This shows their capability to maintain performance even in consecutive games.

THE PLAY: Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 78.5 wins

Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 78.5 wins

1. Offensive Improvements:

   • New Additions: The Pirates have significantly strengthened their lineup with the additions of Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O'Hearn, and Brandon Lowe. These players bring a mix of power and potential to an already developing team.

   • Brandon Lowe's Power: Coming off a season where he hit 31 home runs, Lowe stands out as a significant offensive weapon, suggesting he can help elevate the Pirates’ overall run production.

   • Ryan O'Hearn's Efficiency: O'Hearn’s best season in terms of wins above replacement (WAR) indicates his growing impact on both offense and defense, making him a valuable asset in the lineup.

     Recent season: The Pirates have posted 76, 76 and 71wins the last 3 seasons so we are only asking then to improve by a handful of games.

2. Pitching Staff Potential:

   • Paul Skenes: The 23-year-old Cy Young winner leads the pitching staff, indicating that the Pirates have a top-tier arm to anchor their rotation. His presence alone can provide a considerable advantage in close games.

   • Ashcraft's Emerging Performance: At just 25 years old, Ashcraft’s potential to dominate, as evidenced by his solid 2.71 ERA and 1.6 WAR in limited innings last season, can add depth and reliability to the rotation.

   • Jared Jones' Situation: While Jones may miss the early portion of the season, his expected contributions upon return could further bolster the pitching staff and influence overall team performance.

3. Division Competitiveness:

   • The Brewers' Offseason: With the Brewers' lackluster offseason, the division may open up, allowing the Pirates a better opportunity to compete. Pittsburgh's improvements can create a more competitive environment in the division, making games against teams like Milwaukee crucial for standings and playoff considerations.