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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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ATL @ ARI — April 2, 2026
Model score: Braves 4.9, Diamondbacks 4.0
The current board is dealing Atlanta as a modest road favorite, roughly ATL -122 to -126 / ARI +104 to +105, with the full-game total split between 8.5 and 9.0. The listed starters are Reynaldo López vs. Ryne Nelson, and the projected lineups are built around Atlanta’s current group led by Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, and Arizona’s group led by Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno and Nolan Arenado.
Atlanta enters at 4-2 and Arizona at 3-3. Atlanta just finished a Wednesday home day game before flying west for this series opener, so a small travel/fatigue downgrade was applied to the Braves’ offense. Arizona stayed home for a Detroit series sweep, so no “returning home off road trip” flat-spot penalty was applied to the Diamondbacks.
Chase Field is a roof park. The Apr. 2 roof setting had not been posted at model lock, while the previous three Arizona home games were listed open. Outside weather was warm, roughly 82°F at 7 PM easing to 75°F by 10 PM, so weather only received a small adjustment because roof uncertainty limits the confidence of any outdoor-only boost.
Model build
No verified in-window batter-vs-pitcher sample from 3/1/2025 through 4/2/2026 was surfaced for either matchup. The pasted Ryne Nelson vs. Atlanta line was from 4/7/2024, so it was excluded from the weighted model.
Reynaldo López expected runs allowed
López’s usable in-window MLB sample is very small: his 2025 Atlanta regular-season line was 5.40 ERA in 5.0 innings, and his 2026 opener was 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. Projection systems around the current season cluster him in the mid-3s to low-4s ERA range, with one current baseline at 3.76. Arizona’s offense has been mid-pack early, but the Diamondbacks are 3-0 at home, and their split-specific clutch line is respectable.
Reynaldo López run-prevention build | Figure | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
Current projection baseline | 3.76 | 35% | 1.32 |
2025 in-window MLB actual | 5.40 | 15% | 0.81 |
2026 opener actual | 1.50 | 20% | 0.30 |
Arizona offense environment | 4.17 | 20% | 0.83 |
Road/travel/park adjustment | +0.18 | — | +0.18 |
Expected RA/9 | 3.44 |
Projected innings: 5 1/3
Projected earned runs: 2.0
Ryne Nelson expected runs allowed
Nelson’s 2025 line was much stronger than López’s, at 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA, 132 strikeouts and a 1.07 WHIP, but his 2026 debut was shaky: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR allowed. Atlanta’s offense is still carrying a strong early skill profile and the Braves are tied for the most runs over the last 10 games in the current public leaderboard..
Ryne Nelson run-prevention build | Figure | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 in-window actual | 3.39 | 35% | 1.19 |
2026 opener actual | 7.71 | 20% | 1.54 |
Atlanta offense environment | 4.03 | 25% | 1.01 |
Atlanta recent scoring surge | 4.90 | 10% | 0.49 |
Home adjustment | -0.10 | — | -0.10 |
Chase scoring adjustment | +0.15 | — | +0.15 |
Expected RA/9 | 4.28 |
Projected innings: 4 2/3
Projected earned runs: 2.2
Bullpen adjustment
Atlanta’s relief group rates better. The Braves’ bullpen owns a 3.00 ERA over the last 10 games, while Arizona’s bullpen has shown current leakage, including an 8.25 ERA over the last 3 games. Arizona also used Paul Sewald for saves on consecutive days, and Loáisiga worked Wednesday, while Atlanta got six innings from Chris Sale on Wednesday and had already received a long relief bridge from Martín Pérez on Tuesday. That bullpen gap is the main late-game separator in the model..
Score projection
1st 5 innings boxscore
Team | Projected runs |
|---|---|
ATL | 2.7 |
ARI | 2.1 |
Total | 4.8 |
Full-game boxscore
Team | Projected runs |
|---|---|
ATL | 4.9 |
ARI | 4.0 |
Total | 8.9 |
Projected starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reynaldo López | 5 1/3 | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
Ryne Nelson | 4 2/3 | 2.2 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Projected hitter boxscore
Atlanta
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Drake Baldwin | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Olson | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Austin Riley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Mike Yastrzemski | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ozzie Albies | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michael Harris II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Dominic Smith | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Mauricio Dubón | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 37 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Arizona
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ketel Marte | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Corbin Carroll | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Geraldo Perdomo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Gabriel Moreno | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nolan Arenado | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alek Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Carlos Santana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Jose Fernandez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Jordan Lawlar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Total | 35 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
Wager & Probability Analysis (model-driven)
Moneyline
Team | Model win % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus minus fair | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL | 59.2% | -145 | -124 | +21 cents | Value |
ARI | 40.8% | +145 | +104 | -41 cents | No value |
Tokyo’s Clutch Index
OPS with a runner on 3rd base and fewer than 2 outs, 2026 season to date. Atlanta ranks 8th and Arizona ranks 11th on the current split leaderboard..
Team | Rank | OPS |
|---|---|---|
ATL | 8 | .721 |
ARI | 11 | .713 |
Team component ranks
Category | ATL rank (1-30) | ARI rank (1-30) |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher this season | 12 | 24 |
Bullpen last 10 days | 3 | 23 |
Lineup run production last 10 days | 2 | 15 |
Final read
Market | Model verdict |
|---|---|
Moneyline | ATL value |
Most likely score band: Braves 5-4.
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Bryan Leonard
NHL Hockey
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36 Detroit at Philadelphia
These teams will see a lot of each other down the stretch as they not only play tonight, but meet again in exactly seven days. By that time it’s likely that at least one of these clubs will be out of playoff contention. Philadelphia won the first meeting 5-3. While the Flyers rank last in the league in Power Play Percentage, they do enough other things well to look their way tonight.
Detroit is once again relying on John Gibson in net. While he has had a nice season, he is wearing down from the lack of trust with the other goaltenders on this squad. Losing 7 of 10 down the stretch, we want no part of this Redwings club in this price range.
PLAY PHILADELPHIA
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Adam Trigger
Major League Baseball
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No Under The Radar today because we only have three MLB games and we went into detail on all three on Total Bases.
Full breakdowns with side, total and prop suggestions in the replay below!
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Backing David Peterson and the Mets in the battle of southpaws Thursday night. The Mets have a sizable offensive edge over the struggling Giants bats. San Francisco ranks bottom 5 in all of baseball in a bunch of key offensive metrics. The 25 cents is short. Bet the Mets.
20-11 (65%) for over (+32% PROFIT) MLB run overall
Free Pick Recap: 1-0 (+1 unit)
Pirates (-155) WINNER
Today’s MLB Betting Show:
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Andy Lang
NBA Basketball
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Keldon Johnson OVER 11.5 Points
We go right back to it after a tough beat last night—Johnson finished with 11 points on 3-11 shooting, but the usage and minutes were exactly what we want. That’s the key here: nothing changed in his role, just a cold shooting night.
He’s been strong in this exact spot as well, going over in 4 of his last 5 games on the second leg of a back-to-back. The volume stays consistent, and with even average efficiency, he clears this number.
The matchup supports it too. The Clippers have allowed 113+ points in three straight games, while the Spurs have scored 123 in six straight, creating a high-scoring environment.
With steady opportunity, bounce-back shooting likely, and a favorable game script, this is a buy-back spot on Johnson.
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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on MIN TT under.
No Cade Cunningham No Problem for the Pistons. The Pistons are 11-4 straight up in the 15 games without their leading scorer, but perhaps just as significant is the fact they have gone under in 10 of those 15 games. They have also held opponents to just 106 points per game, when they have allowed an average of 109.6 points per game for the season. Minnesota comes in with a couple of key injuries, and the Timberwolves have gone under in five straight games.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Oskeim Sports
College Basketball
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New Mexico has played inspired basketball throughout the NIT, reaching the semifinals by defeating Sam Houston State, George Washington, and Saint Joseph’s, all of which were played at The Pit. The Golden Hurricane reached this stage by taking down Stephen F. Austin, UNLV, and Wichita State, all of which were also played on their home floor. Both teams boast impressive metrics at the offensive end of the floor – New Mexico has a Rim & 3 Rate over 84%, while the Golden Hurricane have a Rim & 3 Rate over 87%. Tulsa ranks fifth in the nation in 3-Point Percentage (38.9), while the Lobos are 48th (36.2%) in the same category. Tulsa has attempted a 3-pointer on nearly 47% of its shots this season, and that rate has only increased in the NIT. Both teams rank in the top 50 in Points Per Game and Scoring Margin, while the Golden Hurricane are 11th in True Shooting Percentage (Total Points / ( 2 ( FGA + (0.475 3PA) )), 24th in Effective FG% (FG + (0.5 * 3P) ) / FGA), and 11th in Offensive Rating (Points / 100 Possessions). Tulsa finished the regular season ranked 24th in the country in Scoring Margin (+10.0), and the Golden Hurricanes are 34-12 to the Over (73.9%) following a win by thirteen points or less, provided they have a double-digit scoring margin. These games have gone over by an average margin of 7.8 points per game since the beginning of the 2012-13 season. Since 2023, NIT games played in April are a perfect 6-0 to the Over, going over by an average margin of 13.8 points per game. Finally, the over falls into a very good 117-77-2 (60.3%) NIT totals system of mine that dates to 2012 and invests on the over in games involving .686 or greater teams coming off a game in which they finished with a FG% of less than 48.3. Take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, April 2.
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4. #1 BASKETBALL (NBA/NCAA): 80-52 (61%)
5. #1 NBA TOP PLAYS: 10-1 (91%)
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Gianni the Greek
Soccer
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Belgium Jupiler League |
Total Under 3.5 (-182)...(3%) - thru Under 2.75 (+130)
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Ralph Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(539) Cleveland Cavaliers at (540) Golden State Warriors: Spread
2% Cleveland Cavaliers -10.0 (-114)
While I do very limited NBA in the regular season, I do like the playoffs, and this spot jumped out at me.
The Cavs are off a loss at the Lakers and they are 8-2 ATS off a loss with rest compared to 2-11 ATS off a win.
DD AF playing with revenge are 73-34-5 (68.2%).
Warriors are on a 4-9 SU/ATS skid coming off a loss vs San Antonio.
Curry has been practicing and will return Sunday, so I feel this is a great fade spot.
Golden State is the #10 seed, and they are 11 games clear of the #11 seed, so they can lose every game and still make the play-in game.
With no rest and Curry back, I feel this will be a re-set game and get everyone on the same page with Curry's return (they are 13-24 SU w/out him in the lineup.
HD with no rest vs a rested foe, after the first 1/3 of the season (game# >27) are 365-466-11 (44%)!
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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2% Take Cleveland (#539)
The Warriors pulled off a ‘miracle’ cover last night at home against San Antonio, scoring the final eight points of a blowout loss to only lose by 14 as 14.5/15 point underdogs. That game marked their second consecutive double digit defeat. I don’t expect that to be their last double digit loss this season. I’ve been ‘cutting and pasting’ these two quotes from the Warriors in every recent ‘anti-Golden State’ write-up, because they speak volumes about how Steve Kerr’s squad is approaching the final few weeks of the regular season:
“Forward Gui Santos: “We know it doesn't matter if we win 13 games or we lose 13 games. We're going to be playing [in the play-in].” Head Coach Steve Kerr: “We've had our eyes on six (seed) for a while. That's out of the question now. We're not getting there. If we can string together some wins, try to get to eighth, that'd be ideal. Get two cracks at [getting in the playoffs]. But we're not getting to seven. We know that…Can we prepare ourselves for the play-in. We have to be prepared for when we get guys back.” Those are not ‘balls to the wall, immediate urgency’ quotes; Golden State doesn’t have much of an ‘A’ game right now; an easy team to fade.”
The Warriors are on the second of back-2-backs here. Each of their last five losses has come by 14 points or more – it’s not like this team is biting kneecaps to stay competitive in games. They’re facing a Cavs squad coming off a bad loss in LA, primed for redemption here. And with Cleveland’s recent struggles covering pointspreads (3-9-1 ATS L13 games), it’s not like the Cavs have much of a betting bandwagon these days; not a team we’re laying a late season ‘ATS tax’ with tonight. Road chalk worth laying. Take the Cavaliers.
Line Parameter: 2% at -10 or lower, 1.5% at -10.5 or higher
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Carmine Bianco
NHL Hockey
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NHL - Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game Thoughts: The Lightning are off a home loss to the Montreal Canadiens in a game where they held most if not all the analytic advantages including a 4.15 to 2.51 xG but were unable to solve a hot Dobes goalie. Over their last 14 games the Lightning are 8 & 6 and have gone 5-1 off a loss during that stretch of March games with a 25-10 goal differential and all 5 wins coming in regulation. While the Pens are battling for a playoff spot, the Lightning are battling for the #1 seed in the Atlantic and top seed in the Eastern Conference. Expect a bounce back win here in 60.
The play is Tampa Bay Lightning -110 (In regulation)
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play AGAINST favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 that are coming off a home win as a favorite in which they did not cover the spread, if their opponent is coming off a home win.
Applies to OKC.
42-16-2 ATS (72.4%) since the 2021 season.
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32-9 78% ANGLE | 4% NBA UPSET SPECIAL: $25.00
Fresh off a 2-0 NBA sweep, Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:+107.67 units in NBA profit this season#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 units#1 in NBA profit since last season at +191.67 units#1 in NBA totals profit since last season at +87.41 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Upset Special is backed by a powerful situational angle that has prod ...
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Don Buster
NHL Hockey
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This Pittsburgh club may be the death of us as we keep playing against them and they keep winning of late. Today we do it one last time until the playoffs. Pittsburgh have looked great and have won 3 of their L/4. It really does look like they will make the playoffs. As you look at the rest of their schedule after tonight and it seems very easy. Tonight they will face a pissed off TB club, still with lots to play for themselves. TB lost at home to the mighty Canadiens on Tuesday and we like this for a big bounce back spot. The older Penguins have to be getting tired, as this will be their 5 TH game in 7 nights. Also a very strange scheduling spot for Pittsburgh having to play in TB and then back home for 2 games. We could have laid the 180/185 ML but it is just over our line of what we will lay for a ML. instead we play the very small and generous regulation line.
GOOD TO 135
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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The Lakers are 13-1 straight up over their last 14 games but we’ll get to see how good they really are tonight as they play at Oklahoma City. These two have met twice already this season with OKC winning both games by an average of 19 points per game so you know the Lakers will bring their best effort on Thursday. We’re going to take LeBron James to go over 12.5 rebounds + assists with OKC allowing the second most rebounds and most assists per game to power forwards over the last 15 days. James played in only one of the previous head-to-head meetings putting up 16 rebounds + assists and has averaged 16.8 rebounds + assists across his last five games. James should be well rested for this one after playing in 31 minutes on Tuesday which was the least amount of minutes he played in a game since March 1st playing 27 minutes against Sacramento. Playing on national TV tonight, let’s take James to be a difference maker in this game aside from scoring going over 12.5 rebounds + assists against the Thunder in OKC.
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NBA 2-FOR-1 SIDE/TOTAL SPECIAL! (#1 BIG BET RECORD + #1 O/U RECORD ON THE LINE!)
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The GoldSheet is 98-71 (+63.52 units, 58.0% win rate, 9.1% ROI) on plays rated 4% and higher, since Christmas. During that time, their totals are 59-37 (+69.51 units, 61.5% win rate, 19.5% ROI) Both records rank #1 across the network. Both will improve today. Don't miss out!
**#1 BIG BET RECORD SINCE CHRISTMAS!** THURS. CROWN 4% ELITE INFO! : $25.00
The GoldSheet gave some back with a 1-3 Wednesday, but their "big-game" record remains rock solid: 98-71 (+63.52 units, 58.0% win rate, 9.1% ROI on plays rated 4% and higher).They’re primed for a strong bounce-back and the start of a fresh winning streak with Thursday’s “ELITE INFO” selection. TGS knows these clubs extremely well ...
Marco D'Angelo
NHL Hockey
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Great spot to fade Pittsburgh who is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights all in different cities. We also find that betting on Home teams off a blowout loss by 3 goals or more to a division rival, who have a season win percentage of 60% or more when playing a team with a 51% to 60% in the 2nd half of the season is 23-4 since 2022.
TAKE TAMPA BAY
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Oskeim Sports
College Basketball
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Illinois reached the Final Four by virtue of a 71-59 win over Iowa, limiting the Hawkeyes to 18-of-47 (38%) shooting from the field. That result is relevant because the Fighting Illini fall into a very good 303-227-12 ATS (57.2%) system of mine that dates to 2012 and invests on certain teams off a game in which they allowed fewer than 67 points. This situation is 95-60-3 ATS (61.3%) since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. Illinois is one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation, ranking 5th in FT% (78.0). which is significant because NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 203-155-3 ATS (56.7%), including 115-78 ATS (59.6%) since 2021. Even better, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 77% or better from the charity stripe are 85-58 ATS (59.4%), including 65-39 ATS (62.5%) since 2018. Illinois enters the Final Four off four consecutive ATS tournament wins, which is a ‘buy’ sign on the Fighting Illini because NCAA Tournament teams coming off four straight SU and ATS wins are 21-12-1 ATS (63.6%). In addition, college basketball teams coming off 4 consecutive ATS Tournament wins are 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) from the Elite Eight Round forward, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.7 points per game. Finally, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a win over Duke, like the Huskies, are 2-8 SU and ATS (20%) in their next game, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of -4.5 points per game. Lay the points with the Fighting Illini as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, April 4.
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DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. #1 UNITS & ROI L/50 DAYS: +88 UNITS
2. #1 WIN RATE L/50 DAYS: 97-63 (61%)
3. #1 TOP PLAYS L/48 DAYS: 38-20 (66%)
4. #1 BASKETBALL (NBA/NCAA): 80-52 (61%)
5. #1 NBA TOP PLAYS: 10-1 (91%)
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Jeff Keim CASHED AGAIN last night, delivering a 4% NBA Winner! On Thursday, Jeff is STEPPING OUT with another HUGE 4% NBA Best Bet with B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! Jeff is 10-1 (91%) on his NBA Best Bets, so hop on board right now!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD━━━━━━━━━� ...
5% CBB TOTAL SAT BEST BET | #1 TOP PLAYS: 38-20 | #1 UNITS L/50 DAYS: +88 UNITS: $35.00
On Saturday, Jeff Keim is STEPPING OUT with a HUGE 5% NCAA Tournament Total Best Bet backed by powerful 135-78, 35-13, and 17-6 winning situations!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━1. #1 UNITS & ROI L/50 DAYS: +88 UNITS2. #1 WIN RATE L/50 D ...
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Oskeim Sports
NHL Hockey
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Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites with odds under -250 are 3157-2134 (59.7%; +2.7% ROI). Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2368-1562 (60.3%; +2.0% ROI) with a road game on deck. Seattle returned home from an extended road trip, which is significant for several reasons. First, since 2007, .499 or worse underdogs coming off back-to-back road games are 1452-2328 (38.4%; -5.1% ROI; -3.2% ROI PL), including 463-848 (35.3%; -9.1% ROI; -5.6% ROI PL) since 2020. Second, NHL underdogs coming off three consecutive road games are 1184-1815 (39.6%; -5.6% ROI), including 459-760 (37.7%; -7.3% ROI) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Third, NHL underdogs entering off four consecutive road affairs are 539-820 (39.7%; -5.4% ROI) since the beginning of the 2008-09 season. Finally, Utah arrives in Seattle off a 6-2 win over the Kings, and NHL road favorites with more rest are 521-298 (63.6%; +5.7% ROI) versus opponents coming off a loss, including 224-111 (66.9%; +7.1% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Take the Utah Mammoth as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Thursday, April 2.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. #1 UNITS & ROI L/50 DAYS: +88 UNITS
2. #1 WIN RATE L/50 DAYS: 97-63 (61%)
3. #1 TOP PLAYS L/50 DAYS: 38-20 (66%)
4. #1 BASKETBALL (NBA/NCAA): 80-52 (61%)
5. #1 NBA TOP PLAYS: 10-1 (91%)
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4% NBA BEST BET | 10-1 NBA TOP PLAYS | #1 BASKETBALL (NBA/NCAA): $25.00
Jeff Keim CASHED AGAIN last night, delivering a 4% NBA Winner! On Thursday, Jeff is STEPPING OUT with another HUGE 4% NBA Best Bet with B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! Jeff is 10-1 (91%) on his NBA Best Bets, so hop on board right now!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD━━━━━━━━━� ...
5% CBB TOTAL SAT BEST BET | #1 TOP PLAYS: 38-20 | #1 UNITS L/50 DAYS: +88 UNITS: $35.00
On Saturday, Jeff Keim is STEPPING OUT with a HUGE 5% NCAA Tournament Total Best Bet backed by powerful 135-78, 35-13, and 17-6 winning situations!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━1. #1 UNITS & ROI L/50 DAYS: +88 UNITS2. #1 WIN RATE L/50 D ...
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Pavlos Laguretos
Soccer
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Bragantino vs Flamengo
Brazil, Thursday, 8:30pm ET
Play: Over 5 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -120
Bragantino are on a downward trajectory right now, win-less in L/6 (W0 D2 L4) and pressure is starting to rise. They always play extra aggressive when hosting the big Brazilian teams and now Flamengo are coming to town. Flamengo are in good shape, unbeaten in L/8 (W6 D2 L0) and playing good soccer, but they also do get cards as well. They WILL respond with violence if Bragantino start kicking, and I project that they will.
Bragantino Card Average: 4.12 Cards For, and 2.87 Cards Against, total of 6.99 cards/match
Bragantino Card Average at home: 4.00 Cards For, and 2.75 Cards Against, total of 6.75 cards/home match
Flamengo Card Average: 3.00 Cards For, and 2.28 Cards Against, total of 5.28 Cards/match.
Flamengo Card Average on the road: 3.25 cards For, and 2.5 Cards Against, total of 5.75 Cards/away match.
Referee stats:
2025/26: Average of 4.33 cards/match, at least 5 cards in 4 of 6 matches
2024/25: Average of 6.61 cards/match, at least 5 cards in 22 of 26 matches
2023/24: Average of 6.40 cards/match, at least 5 cards in 8 of 10 matches
The Play is Over 5 Cards (-110), line good to -120
Other ways to bet this if Asian Lines not available:
Over 4.5 Cards (-165)
Over 5.5 Cards (+105)
Bragantino Over 2.5 Cards (-138)
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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Off yesterday's 1-0 victory, the Diamondbacks have won three straight. They've also taken six of the past eight meetings vs. the Braves, including each of the past four. Half of those eight games, including the most recent Atlanta win, were decided by a single run. Nelson's numbers from his first game weren't great but keep in mind that he was on the road, against the Dodgers. He was the Dbax top starting arm last season. He was 5-1 with a 2.71 ERA at home last season and he recently closed out a solid spring with a dominant effort in his final start. The Dbax played here in Arizona yesterday while the Braves played in Atlanta. In what may be another close one, let's grab the extra +1.5 runs with Nelson and the Diamondbacks. *good to -165
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THURS. 4% NBA BEST BET! (#1 NBA/CBB RECORD OF ALL-TIME) **+323 UNITS!: $25.00
All-Time NBA/CBB Champion Ben Burns was an AWESOME 51-32 last April, a RED HOT 14-6 with his NBA. Yesterday, he began April with a 3-1 card but the loss came in the NBA. In his first 3+ Aprils here, his NBA is now a COMMANDING 50-29. Ben's current basketball run is an AMAZING +323.09 UNITS. It's shaping up to be another HUGE day/month and ...
***5% MAX*** NCAA BEST IN SHOW! (#1 THIS SEASON, #1 ALL-TIME) *SATURDAY: $35.00
This will almost surely be Ben Burns' final 5% play of the college basketball season — and you KNOW that the All-Time Champ is going out on TOP! Playing with profit the entire season, Ben ranks #1 of All-Time. His basketball is on a heater which has produced more than 300 units of profit — and his long-term numbers are even more dominant. ...
THURS. CBB HEAVY-HITTER! (#1 THIS SEASON, #1 ALL-TIME): $25.00
All-Time College Hoops Champion Ben Burns was an AWESOME 51-32 last April. Yesterday, Ben began the new month by going 3-1 including a winner with Colorado over Oklahoma. Burns' college basketball is number one again this season. Don't miss out!
Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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Maybe all it took for the D-backs was to get out of LA and back home to Chase Field to get straightened out. Sweeping three from the Tigers in Phoenix was a good way for Arizona to get back to .500 and on track again.
After the offense erupted for 16 runs across the first two games of the Detroit series, it was a good old fashioned pitching diuel on Wednesday when Zac Gallen outdueled Tarik Skubal in a 1-0 D-backs triumph thanks to a Corbin Carroll homer. The hot bat at the moment surely belongs to Carroll, too, after he knocked in seven runs across the three-game sweep of the Tigers.
Ryne Nelson, roughed up by the Dodgers last Friday, should look forward to pitching at home tonight after posting a 2.71 ERA at Chase last season, while we see how the Braves fare on the road after opening with six games at home. We also need more evidence than one good start vs. a misfiring Royals offense last week that starter Reynoldo Lopez is all of the way back from last year's shoulder surgery. We use D-backs +103, so invoke our ".10 rule" here to stick with the Arizona pick as long as it doesn't move more than .10 (that would be -107) from our price. Play D-backs on Money Line
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Bruce Marshall, longtime former Publisher at The Gold Sheet and Editor of European Soccer Weekly, has returned home to WT as College Sports Editor of TGS and will providing featured releeases in all sports!! Check out Bruce's media spots later this week-- Thursday...Tide 100.9 FM Tuscaloosa 5 PM EDT with Ryan Fowler; VSIN 800 PM EDT with Matt ...
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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It was just a few years ago that Reynaldo Lopez dazzled the league with a stellar ERA and a wOBA of .271. He was out for essentially all of last season but has started 2026 looking like his old self, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings in his season debut. The Braves as a team are playing well also, winning both series thus far as they take the trip to Arizona. Ryne Nelson was tagged for 4 runs with 3 walks in just over 4 innings against the Dodgers. Nelson shows flashes of strong stuff but is too inconsistent. He’ll make some mistakes in the zone as Atlanta takes the opener. Take the Braves.
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Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any Top-Rated 5% Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Drew Martin
College Basketball
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We were on the Michigan Wolverines over the Tennessee Volunteers in the Elite Eight matchup this past Sunday and cashed the easy (95-62) winner for the free pick. Staying with them in this matchup against Arizona at a much shorter number. Granted, a step up in class against the similarly seeded #1 Wildcats makes for an epic matchup.
Michigan has been dominating their opponents, cruising to Indianapolis off four straight double digit wins, scoring 90 plus points in each. Arizona has also had fairly easy work with a bit more of a fight vs Purdue on Saturday to get here, down by seven points in the second half before coming back to secure their spot in the Final Four.
I think Michigan is able to win the rebounding battle and get enough second chance points. Plus, the Wolverines are hitting 77% of their free throws this calendar year. We get Dusty May with a few extra days to prepare making a coaching preparation edge on our side as well. For the Final Four Free bet- Bet Michigan.
Free Pick Recap: 1-0 (+1 unit)
Sunday- Michigan (-7) WINNER
🏀 5% NCAA FINAL FOUR "MAX LIMIT" 1st GM Illinois vs UConn $$ below....
Released/revised 3 day(s) ago
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EARLY THURSDAY MLB 2 PACK $$ (5-0)
Was $39.00 Now $19.00
***PERFECT 5-0 (100%)*** MLB Thursday run (+15% PROFIT). NEXT TWO INSIDE! (Both picks for a discounted price). MONEY PRINTING 20-11 (65%) for over (+32% PROFIT) MLB run overall. Longterm, 132-107 (55%) Overall for (+65% PROFIT) last 239 client picks. This is a premium client 2 pick package with both picks included for the reduced price= TAKE ADVAN ...
5% NCAA FINAL FOUR "MAX LIMIT" 1st GM Illinois vs UConn $$: $35.00
MONEY PRINTING 97-68 (59%) for (+104% PROFIT) All 3%+ sides. NEXT ONE HERE! BEST BET for the Final Four is our highest rated pick of the NCAA Tournament in the Illinois vs UConn game tipping off at 3:09pm PT on Saturday for the 1st matchup of the Final Four round. CASHING 45-27 (63%) for (+69% PROFIT) All 4/5% sides. This is a premium client 5% &qu ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
Was $138.00 Now $69.00
For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Ralph Michaels
College Football
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Dante Moore (Oregon) to win Heisman (10-1)
Moore threw for 3.565 and his 163.7 rating ranked #8.
He has a 30-10 TD-Int ratio with a 19-5 ratio Home and an 11-5 ratio Away.
This season they play only 4 road games, playing at Rutgers the week after hosting ULL, playing at Penn St after hosting Washington, and have a bye week before their last 2 road games at Wisconsin and at Indiana.
Hosting San Jose St, Fresno St, and ULL in non-conf action to start the season gives him an early season edge.
Moore was #in 4 in passing% (71.85%) and will be a contender if he cuts downs in Int's!
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THURSDAY CROWN CBB! • CBB #1 & #1 THIS SEASON!: $25.00
#1 CBB REGULAR SEASON..... #1 THIS SEASON INCLUDING MARCH MADNESS & #1 MARCH MADNESS LY!•• What a run...as Ralph was #1 in CBB March Madness last season, finished #1 this regular season and is #1 this season, including March Madness!•• Ralph's all sports run stands at 79-50-1 (61%) with his CBB run at 69-43-1 (62%)!•• Ralph’ ...
THURSDAY NIT! • CBB #1 & #1 THIS SEASON!: $15.00
#1 CBB REGULAR SEASON & #1 THIS SEASON INCLUDING MARCH MADNESS!•• What a run...as Ralph was #1 in CBB March Madness last season, finished #1 this regular season and is #1 this season, including March Madness!•• Ralph's all sports run stands at 79-50-1 (61%) with his CBB run at 69-42-1 (62%)!•• Ralph’s CBB sides are on a 11-4 ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
Was $138.00 Now $69.00
For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...