Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Valencia +101

2% Valencia (8:00 AM ET): Two mid-table sides heading in opposite directions here in La Liga as Valencia is unbeaten in nine consecutive matches while Getafe have dropped four in a row. Now there’s an argument to be made that we’re catching Valencia at/near the top of the market, however the motivation for Los Che far outweighs that in my opinion. Three more points on Saturday and we could be talking European qualification for Valencia, or at the very least a top half finish, something few would have imagined when the club was near the relegation zone at the midpoint of the domestic season. 

As for Getafe, they’ve got a significantly better YTD goal difference than Valencia, but being three points back at this stage makes European qualification highly unlikely. (The xGD between these two sides is a lot closer). Since they’re also seven points clear of the relegation zone, Getafe really have little to play for down these last four matches, and thus I can see them stumbling down the stretch. Quite frankly, that stumble is already apparent with the four consecutive losses, two of which came against teams that were freshly promoted this season (Espanyol, Las Palmas). Each of the last three losses have been by the same scoreline (1-0) so not much of an attack right now for Getafe, who - incredibly - have failed to top 1.0 xG in six of the last seven away matches! The exception came against last place Real Valladolid. 

Meanwhile, Valencia found the back of the net three times in last week’s win over Las Palmas. The previous seven matches all saw them concede 1 goal or fewer. So we are talking about a very in-form side at the moment. In fact, the only other La Liga side w/o a loss in the L5 matches is Barcelona. While it ended up being a 1-1 draw in the reverse (back in October), Getafe’s lone goal came on a penalty in the 90th minute. Should also be pointed out Getafe will have three players suspended for this match as well including Mauro Arambarri, whose nine goals not only lead the club, but are more than double anyone else. 2% Valencia (Play to -120)