Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 5.5 Cards (-135)

Huracan vs Racing Club
Argentina, Friday, 6pm ET

Play: Over 5.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -135 
Line Parameter: Line good to -150

Good matchup for cards here, with good H2H card totals and also a situation where Huracan are currently sitting inside the Copa Sudamericana spots in the cumulative rankings, and with Racing Club sitting just 1 point outside, so they are also interested.

However, Racing Club have been bad in domestic competitions this season, and are also in-between their Copa Libertadores quarter-finals. They just beat Velez Sarsfield by 1-0 on the road in the first leg a few days ago and have the second leg at home in just a few days. That's their main target right now, but they can't easily overlook the league.

Cards in recent H2H: 7/7/5/5/10/8/13/11/6, that's a 7-2 to the Over 5.5 Cards

Huracan average 2.70 cards for/match and 2.50 cards for/home match. 
Huracan average 4.70 cards against/match and 5.66 cars against/home match.

This is not a typo, Huracan have BY FAR the most cards against, both regardless of venue but even more so at home. They also have the most Red Cards Against with 10 in 24 matches, and the most Red Cards Against at home with 6 in 12.

Racing Club average 3.29 cards for/match and 3.75 cards for/away match. 
Racing Club average 2.54 cards against/match and 2.17 cards against/away match.

Referee is Mr Nicolas Lamolina, who is not exactly a very good referee for cards, but he does show them when teams get too aggressive, and I expect these two to give him reasons. Here are his stats:

2025: Average of 5.11 cards/match, Over 5.5 Cards in 8 of 17 matches
2024: Average of 6.47 cards/match, Over 5.5 Cards in 15 of 23 matches
2023: Average of 6.75 cards/match, Over 5.5 Cards in 22 of 34 matches
2022: Average of 5.96 cards/match, Over 5.5 Cards in 16 of 30 matches
2021: Average of 5.07 cards/match, Over 5.5 Cards in 10 of 26 matches
2020: Average of 6.82 cards/match, Over 5.5 cards in 18 of 26 matches

I went through his stats and he sometimes gives 2-3-4 cards but that's in matches involving teams that don't foul a lot and with low card totals. Huracan, for whatever reason, they piss their opponents off BIG TIME, that's why they have some insane "Cards Against" numbers. Plus, they do average over 2.5 Cards/match themselves, and some good history in cards in this H2H.

The line is at 5.5 for a reason, and that reason is the referee, but he has a lot of matches with 7-8-9-10 cards, if the teams force his hand, and these two will force it.

Take 2% on the Over 5.5 Cards (-135), line good to -150