Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: South East Melbourne -7.5 (-115)

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This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount...

These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon

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South East Melbourne Phoenix at New Zealand Breakers — spread: Phoenix -7.5

Quick snapshot

• Phoenix: scoring 100.4 / allowing 91.9 (big +margin), 20–9 overall; road 9–5.

• Breakers: scoring 90.7 / allowing 92.2, 11–18 overall; home 5–8.

• Injuries: Breakers have Izayah Le'Afa / Rob Baker II / Samuel Mennenga listed out (season); Phoenix: no injuries listed.

Last 10 games (most recent first)

Phoenix last 10 (7–3)

• @ Adelaide W 97–77

• @ Perth L 93–101

• vs Cairns W 118–91

• vs Breakers W 123–116

• @ Adelaide W 108–89

• vs Perth L 97–107

• vs Illawarra W 124–113

• @ Sydney W 124–117

• @ Cairns W 111–96

• @ Tasmania L 84–87

Trend note: Phoenix have been fine away from home lately (6 of those 10 were road games).

Breakers last 10 (4–6)

• @ Tasmania L 89–91

• vs Melbourne W 97–95

• vs Brisbane L 104–80

• vs Adelaide L 110–112 (OT)

• @ Phoenix L 116–123

• @ Cairns W 104–86

• @ Illawarra W 101–96

• vs Sydney L 62–103

• vs Perth L 91–99

• @ Tasmania W 81–80 (OT)

Trend note: That 62–103 home loss is the kind of “variance grenade” that shows how quickly their offense can go missing.

Player vs player matchups (what decides the cover)

1) Lead guards: Nathan Sobey vs Parker Jackson-Cartwright

• Sobey is the higher-volume engine (22.2 PPG) and Phoenix’s main closer.

• PJC is the Breakers’ whole steering wheel (17.2 PPG, 7.5 APG). If Phoenix can make him work for touch time and keep him off the line, Breakers’ offense often stalls.

2) “Second dagger” scoring: Ian Clark & Owen Foxwell vs Breakers’ help defense

• Phoenix have multiple perimeter creators: Clark 12.4 PPG (in his games), Foxwell 11.9 PPG, plus extra playmaking. That’s how favorites separate late.

• Breakers’ defense isn’t awful, but they’ve struggled to keep good offenses under control across 40 minutes (season profile).

3) Wings: Izaiah Brockington & Karim Lopez vs Phoenix’s perimeter length

• Brockington (15.4 PPG) is the cleanest “get-a-bucket” wing they’ve got.

• Lopez (11.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.1 BPG) brings rim pressure + defensive events, but he’s also young enough to get baited into foul/turnover trouble vs a disciplined attack.

• Phoenix have multiple capable matchups on them (Sobey/Clark/Foxwell/longer wings), so NZ’s wing scoring usually has to be efficient to keep pace.

4) The big swing: Phoenix rebounding vs Breakers’ thin frontcourt

• Phoenix: John Brown is a chaos merchant on the glass (6.4 RPG, 3.7 ORB), plus Jordan Hunter (12.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG).

• Breakers: their top rebound/points bigs (Mennenga, Baker) are listed out, which makes protecting the defensive glass and the rim a lot harder.
  Translation: Phoenix are more likely to win the “extra possessions” battle (OREB + second-chance points), which is exactly what you want when laying points.

5) Head-to-head confidence: Phoenix have already solved this matchup

• Phoenix are 3–0 vs Breakers this season and have scored ~100.7 PPG across those games.

• Breakers vs Phoenix: ~92.3 PPG in the season series.

Why I am betting Phoenix -7.5

1. Massive season scoring margin gap: Phoenix +8.5-ish by points-for/against vs Breakers negative margin.

2. Recent form: Phoenix 7–3 last 10 with several double-digit wins; Breakers 4–6 with at least one severe offensive collapse.

3. Health + depth advantage: Breakers’ listed outs hit ball-handling depth and (especially) frontcourt structure; Phoenix show clean availability.

4. Rebounding/second-chance edge: Brown/Hunter vs a shortened NZ front line is a classic “favorite extends lead with extra shots” script.

5. Matchup proof: Phoenix already beat them in New Zealand earlier (and have swept the season series).

6. Breakers’ home trend isn’t scary: 5–8 at home overall—so you’re not fading some fortress arena situation.

THE PLAY: Murray State -5.5 (-110)

7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!

For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to Tokyo Brandon. You will receive every play, in every sport he releases, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.,

This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount...

These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

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This will move to 6 or 7 take -7 or less.

Since conference play

Player matchup breakdowns (level of competition included)

Ahmad Henderson II vs Murray guard defense (Javon Jackson / Layne Taylor types): Henderson’s role is more “steady pilot” than “offense detonator,” but that can matter a lot against a defense that has allowed ~80.8 ppg since 1/1/26. If Murray’s perimeter contains without fouling, Illinois Chicago’s ceiling drops; if not, Illinois Chicago can keep this in the one-possession zone late.

Mekhi Lowery / UIC rebounding collective vs Fred King: This is the tectonic-plates matchup. King is Murray’s rebound hub (and a rim presence), and when he’s controlling the glass, Murray’s offense gets extra life even when they’re not shooting cleanly. Illinois Chicago’s defense since 1/1 has been legit (65.0 allowed), so the simplest way for Murray to break that is second-chance points and paint touches through King.

UIC team defense vs Murray creators (Jackson/Taylor): Murray’s recent slate has been very similar in opponent quality to Illinois Chicago’s (avg opponent rank ~150 for both), so the “they haven’t seen anyone like this” argument doesn’t really fly. The more honest angle: Illinois Chicago is allowing way fewer points lately than Murray is, and that tends to travel. If UIC keeps Murray in the 70s, the dog + points becomes live. If Murray drags it into the 80s, the spread becomes much tougher for UIC to cash.

Why I am laying points with the Racers:

Pros for Murray State -6.5 (since 1/1/26 focus, + matchup logic)

• UIC’s record looks better than the underlying “who did you play”: both teams’ recent opponent quality is roughly similar (avg opponent rank ~150-ish), but UIC’s 8–2 run has also come with a pretty hot ATS stretch that can regress hard when you step into a road spot against a higher-upside offense.

• Murray’s offense has the “pull-away” profile: since 1/1/26 Murray has been scoring 82.2 ppg. If they get to their normal scoring band, -6.5 is totally coverable even if UIC is competent.

• UIC’s offense is the weak link: UIC is ~71.7 ppg since 1/1/26. If Murray gets even average defensive possessions (no live-ball turnover fiesta), UIC can get stuck in the low 70s—bad math when you’re catching only 6.5.

• Home-court + game script: Murray has been better at home than away recently (3–1 home since 1/1/26). A favorite like this often covers via “late margin insurance” (free throws + defense) when leading.

• Rebounding/rim pressure leverage: with Fred King (8.7 rpg) anchoring the interior, Murray has a cleaner path to extra possessions/paint points than UIC. Extra possessions are basically oxygen for a spread cover.

• Injury cleanliness: no reported injuries for either team, which reduces “random rotation chaos” that can burn favorites (especially if a key ball-handler is out).