Free Sports Predictions MAR 14: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

3% Milwaukee (3:10 ET): Think this is a good spot to “sell high” with Atlanta. Yes, they still are the proud owners of the NBA’s longest win streak (8 in a row), but the Hawks did fail to cover last time out as 15.5-point home favorites against Brooklyn (won 108-97) and that was a game where they had a massive edge in FT attempts. While they had covered the number in each of the previous seven victories, all but one of those here at home, there has been a huge shift in the line from when the Hawks went to Milwaukee not that long ago. While it ended up being an easy 131-113 win, the Hawks were only one-point favorites. So it’s a huge shift here laying almost double digits to the same opponent.

Now, obviously it has been a challenging season for the Bucks, who are looking more and more likely to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016. They haven’t been helping themselves much recently, dropping seven of eight - both SU and ATS. Thursday, they lost on the road to another hot team (Miami), 112-105 as 5.5-point underdogs. But, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as questionable for today, I don’t think Milwaukee should be this large of an underdog. If Giannis does end up playing, then we’re getting what I feel would be a tremendous number. Regardless, the Bucks haven’t been this large a ‘dog since Feb 12th at OKC - a game they ended up winning outright (110-93) without Antetokounmpo.

Even with this recent surge, Atlanta is still only 17-16 SU at home (15-18 ATS). They average fewer points at home than on the road, and overall, they’ve outscored opponents by less than a point per game for the full season (all games). So, as hot as the Hawks have been, they’re still very much a middle of the road type team. They’re only 14-17 ATS as a favorite, winning those games by an average of 5.3 PPG. 3% Milwaukee (Play to +8)

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Toledo will be playing their 3rd game in 3 nights while taking a monumental step-up in class.  The Rockets come in off a win over UMass who was coming off a win that handed Miami-Ohio their first loss of the season.  It was a great spot for Toledo, and they took advantage by shooting 57% (31-54) from the field.  However, their good scheduling edge evaporates here against a 28-5 Akron team.  The Zips are a significantly better team, especially on defense.  They’ll make it difficult for Toledo to score, and it will be even harder on tired legs.  Akron has dominated this series recently by winning 5 of the last 6 meetings, including a 10-point win earlier this season.  Lay the points with the favorite in this game on Saturday night.

Play AKRON (-).

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Released/revised 39 minute(s) ago

49 San Jose at Montreal

This is the third game of a five game roadtrip for the Sharks. They beat Boston 4-2 right after losing to the red hot Sabres in Buffalo. It’s also the first of three straight in Canada. As young and exciting as San Jose is, they are a very respectable 14-16-1 on the road. Winning 9 of the last 17 outright away from home.

Montreal has had the last two days off, after playing four games the previous six days. The last two being very important wins against huge rival Toronto, and the surging Senators. After playing tonight and tomorrow against western conference opponents, Montreal takes on Boston, Detroit, the Islanders, Carolina and Columbus. All teams in the top nine eastern conference spots.

San Jose has fared well in this series for quite some time. Both of these teams have a bright future, but it’s the visitor who gets our money on Saturday.

PLAY SAN JOSE

3% Good to +122

Released/revised 41 minute(s) ago

Since 2015, NBA non-division conference games with double-digit spreads are 595-491-31 to the Over (55%). The Celtics should score at ease against an inept Washington defense ranked 25th in FG% allowed (48.0), 23rd in 3PT% allowed (36.7), and 30th in both rebounds per game (47.9) and offensive rebounds allowed per game (13.3). Washington arrives in Boston off a 136-131 loss to the Magic on Thursday, which is significant because this contest falls into very strong 390-292-8 (57.2%), 276-164-12 (63.1%), and 164-86-6 (65.6%) NBA totals systems of mine that date to 1989 and invest on the over in certain games involving .451 or greater non-division favorites of greater than nine points versus opponents entering off a loss. Finally, Boston returned home from a three-game road trip, ending with a 104-102 loss to the Cavaliers on Thursday. However, the Celtics are 59-41-2 to the Over (59%) since December 12, 2019, following a road loss in which they scored a certain number of points in the paint, going over by an average margin of +4.1 points per game. Take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 14. **Don’t miss Jeff’s Ultra-Rare 5% NCAA Basketball Steam Play on Saturday! Jeff is on a RED-HOT 55-25 (69%) overall run and is a documented 100-60 (63%) in college basketball for a net profit of +$30K!**

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1H Houston +1.5 (-125)

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(615) Mississippi at (616) Arkansas: Spread

Mississippi +9.5 (-112)

Conf Tourney teams off a win as a DD Dog and now getting 8+ pts are 17-5 (77%) ATS!

Ole Miss is 7-2 ATS since mid-Jan, incl 8-0 ATS with a total 147+.

Arkansas has been a Fav of more than 6.5 points away from home only once this season, and that was vs Fresno St back in early Dec.

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The under falls into a very good 312-200-8 (60.9%) Conference Tournament system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests on the under in certain conference tournament affairs between .601 or better teams, provided at least one team scored fewer than 99 points in their previous game. This situation has been 92-56-1 to the Under (62.2%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, going under by an average margin of -2.7 points per game. Kennesaw State is coming off a 79-73 upset win over Sam Houston State as a 1.5-point underdog and will be playing its third consecutive game in the Conference USA Tournament on Saturday. The Bulldogs enter off a 69-66 victory over Montana State as 1.5-point underdogs and will also be playing their third game in three days. These scheduling dynamics are noteworthy because, since 2010, conference tournament teams playing their third game in three days are 358-278-10 to the Under (56.3%). Finally, since 2012, Conference USA Tournament games have been 76-57 to the Under (57.1%). Take the Under in the Kennesaw State/Louisiana Tech game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 14. **Don’t miss Jeff’s Ultra-Rare 5% NCAA Basketball Steam Play on Saturday! Jeff is on a RED-HOT 55-25 (69%) overall run and is the #1 Handicapper at WagerTalk in Win % and Units Won over the L/30 days!**

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

(551) Washington Wizards at (552) Boston Celtics: Total

Total Under 230.5 (-110)

• Historical System Performance:

  • Teams that lost the last meeting at home by 30+ points with a total set above 210 shows a record of 37-74-2 (33%) over/under.

• Boston Celtics Performance:

  • Recent Over/Under Record: The Celtics have a poor over/under record of 2-11 (15%) at home since January 10. They are also 3-16 (15.7%) over/under playing at least 8 games in the last 14 days.

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So my clients and I had Tulsa yesterday, and although they won the game, it took 3 OT's to do so. The game could not have started worse for them, as they were down 14-0. There was no doubt Tulsa was the better team vs North Texas, but you can't spot a team 14 points right off the bat. They were down 11 at the break and then finally started to play to their level in the 2H. Had they not sleepwalked to start that game, they likely would have won it by double digits. The market is now looking at that 3 OT win yesterday and figuring that Tulsa will be gassed for this one against a well-rested Wichita State team. But much like yesterday, Tulsa is the better team and has the higher offensive ceiling than Wichita State. They also have familiarity with this court and its sightlines now that they have played on it. With this being a win-or-go-home game, I'm not worried about the rest issue here. I want the more talented team with more ways to score efficiently and more dynamic guards. While this is a great chess match between coaches, I want the better team that just proved they're tough enough to fight and leave it all out on the court. It's contrarian, but I'm backing Tulsa again in this spot.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Take Virginia (#629)

There are no pointspread bargains these days with the Duke Blue Devils, a team that is ranked #1 in the nation at KenPom, Bart Torvik and the vast majority of advanced metric sites, as well as in the polls-- their full season stats are truly elite.  But the Duke team taking the floor today is not the same team that went 31-2 to get here.  Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster (#3 and #4 on the Blue Devils in minutes played this season) are both out for the ACC Tourney.  That has left head coach Jon Scheyer with a perilously thin bench; using basically a seven man rotation (and the seventh guy probably shouldn’t be on the court very much).  Playing their third game in three nights managing minutes becomes paramount; extending leads does not.  Plain and simple – RIGHT NOW, TODAY, Duke is an overvalued commodity, which certainly helps explain why the sharp $$ is flowing towards Virginia in early betting action for Saturday.  Expect a battle, not a blowout.  Take Virginia.

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New York has won three straight games against the Flyers, Flames, and Jets, but NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 906-1451 (38.4%; -11.2% ROI) since 2002, including 605-1022 (37.2%; -12.7% ROI) with a .599 or worse win percentage.  Minnesota enters off a 3-2 home loss to the Flyers, but NHL home favorites of -155 or greater coming off a home game are 483-221 (68.6%; +1% ROI) in March affairs, including 207-75 (73.4%; +5.7% ROI) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season.  Let’s also note that non-conference home favorites coming off a loss that finished under the total are 142-90 (61.2%) in games with totals of six goals.  Finally, since 2007, Metropolitan Division road underdogs of +200 or less coming off a win are 177-268 (39.8%; -5.1% ROI) versus non-division opponents from January forward, including 49-107 (31.4%; -25.1% ROI) since the beginning of the 2018-19 season, losing by an average of -1.21 goals per game.  Take the Minnesota Wild as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 14. **Don’t miss Jeff’s Ultra-Rare 5% NCAA Basketball Steam Play on Saturday!  Jeff is on a RED-HOT 55-25 (69%) overall run and is the #1 Handicapper at WagerTalk in Win % and Units Won over the L/30 days!**

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The story out of the MAC Conference this year on the hardwood was Miami Ohio winning 31 straight games to start the season, going (31-0) in the regular season. However, the Redhawks lost their first MAC Tournament game, leaving the automatic Conference bid up for grabs tonight. Akron vs Toledo for a NCAA Tournament ticket makes for high level intrigue and the Zips are the bet.

The Championship game tips at 5pm PT on ESPN2 from Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH. Miami OH having the run they did was impressive, it also quieted the season Akron put together this year. The Zips are a very impressive (28-5). They went (17-1) in MAC games and have won 9 straight coming into this one. Akron beat Toledo by double digits earlier this season and have won 4 straight against the Rockets. Akron has covered four of their last five games overall. They are the #1 offensive and defensive efficiency team in the MAC.

Toledo likely struggles defensively, similarly to how they gave up over 90 points the first go around vs the high powered Akron shooters. The Zips should win and cover, making it 3 straight MAC Championships for Akron. This bet just missed the Saturday client card. For today's free pick- Bet the Zips.

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These Western Conference foes just met last week with Denver earning a 120-113 home win. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each finished with 28 points in the wire-to-wire effort. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Thursday. Los Angeles should be close to full strength for this one with only Maxi Kleber listed on the injury report. The same is true in Denver where the Nuggets went from one of the ugliest injury reports in the league in January, to nearly a clean bill of health in March. Peyton Watson is the only Nugget listed on the injury report, and he is expected to return within the next few days. This looks like a nice sell-high spot on the Lakers, in our opinion. First, let's take a look at who the Lakers have beaten during this current eight-game run: Golden State (without Curry), Sacramento, New Orleans, Indiana and Chicago. We're not racing to congratulate Los Angeles for beating those teams. We still need a larger sample size of Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves playing together for an extended period. Most of these wins have come without James in the lineup. Reaves and Doncic clearly have some chemistry, but when the three of them are on the court at the same time, the Lakers' offense has looked clunky. Denver is coming off a pair of big wins over the Rockets and Spurs to help the Nuggets' place in the Western Conference pecking order. We are comfortable laying this number with the Nuggets.

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This is a free play on SJS +1.5.

The Sharks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, and every game from now until the rest of the season is a must win game. They are just one point out of a Wild Card spot, and they have games in hand versus the teams they are chasing. History certainly favors the visitors, who are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus Montreal. Win or lose this game should be close!

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Key Situational Angle:

Play ON road underdogs averaging 114-118 points per game if they scored at least 125 in their last game and are facing an opponent allowing 114-118 ppg.

Applies to Orlando.

39-15 ATS (72.2%) since the 2022 season.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

Play UNDER in neutral-couurt games with the total in the 150s when one team is coming off a conference win as an underdog.

Applies to Charlotte.

67-31 (68.4%) since the 2022 season, staying UNDER by an average margin of 6.1 points.

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Turkey :

Total Over 2.5 (-103)...(3%) - thru Over 2.5 (-115)

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_______

Projected winner: Oklahoma

This is another spot where the book is shading the brand a bit too hard. Texas A&M is very good, but for this specific game the probable starter edge leans strongly to Oklahoma, and that drags my number toward the dog.

My projection

• Oklahoma win probability: 53%

• Texas A&M win probability: 47%

Equivalent fair American odds

• Oklahoma: -113

• Texas A&M: +113

Book vs. projection

• Texas A&M -140

  • Book implied win probability: 58.3%

  • My projected win probability: 47.0%

  • Value vs. book: -11.3 percentage points

  • Fair line +113 vs book -140 = overpriced

• Oklahoma +110

  • Book implied win probability: 47.6%

  • My projected win probability: 53.0%

  • Value vs. book: +5.4 percentage points

  • Fair line -113 vs book +110 = value on Oklahoma

Projected score

• Oklahoma 6, Texas A&M 5

Why I land on Oklahoma:

The probable Saturday matchup is Weston Moss for Texas A&M against LJ Mercurius for Oklahoma. Multiple series previews listed that exact pairing.

Mercurius is the biggest reason the projection flips toward the dog. Oklahoma’s official preview says he entered this start with a 0.39 ERA, 34 strikeouts, a 4-0 record, and even a seven-inning one-hitter vs. Gonzaga. TexAgs’ series breakdown adds a 0.64 WHIP and .118 opponent batting average. That is not just “good form”; that is cartoon-villain form.

By contrast, Texas A&M’s probable Saturday starter Weston Moss was listed at 2-1, 5.21 ERA in the A&M series preview. That does not mean he is doomed, but it is a clear disadvantage relative to Mercurius entering this particular game..

Now, A&M absolutely has the more explosive overall offense. Oklahoma’s preview notes the Aggies rank in the national top 10 in batting average (.344), OBP (.474), slugging (.612), and carry a 2.95 team ERA. TexAgs also notes A&M averages 10.06 runs per game, with Caden Sorrell pacing the lineup at .407 with eight home runs, while a healthier lineup may get even deeper with Chris Hacopian back and Wesley Jordan probable.

Oklahoma is not outgunned, though. TexAgs’ preview shows OU at .310 team batting average, 9.29 runs per game, and a 2.96 team ERA. The Sooners also bring real lineup threats in Brendan Brock (four HR, 21 RBI, 1.131 OPS), Deiten Lachance (.404 average), and Trey Gambill (.552 OBP, 1.157 OPS). That offensive gap exists, but it is not some canyon full of screaming goats.

The bullpen and overall staff quality also help Oklahoma stay live. Oklahoma’s official preview says the rotation trio of Cameron Johnson, LJ Mercurius, and Cord Rager had combined for 88 strikeouts against 17 walks and 13 earned runs, and it highlighted relievers Jackson Cleveland and Kadyn Leon, with Leon allowing no runs in 9.0 innings and Cleveland already owning three saves.

There is also a small contextual nudge from Friday night’s opener: Oklahoma beat Texas A&M 8-7 after erasing a four-run deficit, and the Sooners produced 13 hits. One game should never hijack the whole projection, but it does confirm OU can create traffic and finish late against this staff.

So the model logic is pretty simple:
A&M has the better overall offensive profile. Oklahoma has the better Saturday starter, strong enough staff support, home field, and plenty of lineup quality. In college baseball, an ace-ish Saturday arm at plus money is often a tasty little bet.

Betting value

• Best side: Oklahoma +110

• No value: Texas A&M -140

Fair-moneyline chart

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_______

Projected winner: Purdue

This number smells a bit off to me. Maryland is at home, but the probable starter matchup and bullpen-path risk tilt toward Purdue.

My projection

• Purdue win probability: 54%

• Maryland win probability: 46%

Equivalent fair American odds

• Purdue: -117

• Maryland: +117

Book vs. projection

• Purdue +114

  • Book implied win probability: 46.7%

  • My projected win probability: 54.0%

  • Value: +7.3 percentage points

  • Fair line -117 vs book +114 = meaningful value on Purdue

• Maryland -145

  • Book implied win probability: 59.2%

  • My projected win probability: 46.0%

  • Value: -13.2 percentage points

  • Fair line +117 vs book -145 = overpriced

Projected score

• Purdue 7, Maryland 5

Why Purdue gets the nod:

Purdue’s probable Saturday starter is Austin Klug, while Maryland’s is Evan Smith. Maryland Baseball Network listed Evan Smith vs. Austin Klug as the Saturday matchup for this series.

On paper, Klug has the cleaner current form. Purdue coverage described him as having the team’s best record at 3-1 and “averaging one run allowed per game,” while Purdue’s staff has leaned on him in both starting and bulk roles. In a Feb. 28 twinbill, Klug worked 5 2/3 innings of two-hit ball and retired 15 straight batters..

Smith’s early-season line is shakier. Maryland’s official stats list Evan Smith with a 7.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over 6.0 innings, while D1Baseball’s team page shows him at 6.0 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K entering this matchup. That is a pretty loud “small sample, handle with oven mitts” warning sign against a live Purdue lineup.

The Purdue bats also have enough form to punish short-start volatility. Purdue’s preview and team stats highlighted Ali Banks around .375, Westin Boyle around .371 with team-leading hits/RBI, and Sam Flores with a team-leading 1.060 OPS and 4 home runs. D1Baseball also listed Purdue’s top hitters with Boyle, Banks, Flores, CJ Richmond, and Brandon Rogers all batting well early.

Maryland’s offense is real too, so this is not some laugher. Maryland’s preview said the Terps were averaging just over 10 hits and 8 runs per game, and the official stats page shows Brayden Martin leading in hits with 21, Ryan Costello leading in RBI with 21, and Costello also pacing the club in home runs. Maryland’s current streak tables also show Martin, Kaunas, Jones II, and Costello carrying active form into the series.

The bullpen angle is the tiebreaker for me. Maryland does have a legit late arm in Logan Hastings, who entered with a 1.15 ERA, .151 opponent average, and 15.2 innings, but Game 1 exposed how thin the path gets when the starter exits and leverage stacks up. Maryland’s Friday loss featured a bullpen collapse after a strong start from Lance Williams, and the recap explicitly noted that Saturday’s game would go to Evan Smith.

Purdue, meanwhile, has shown a cleaner bridge around Klug. The Boilers have already paired Klug with arms like Noah Filer, and D1Baseball’s Purdue stats snippet lists Filer at 3.60 ERA with opponents hitting .176 in his early work. That gives Purdue a more comfortable route through the middle innings if Klug gives them 4-6 solid frames.

One more small nudge: Purdue had already shown it can travel, with 8 of its first 10 wins away from home, according to Maryland’s series preview. That matters because road college baseball can get weird in a hurry, like a shopping cart with one cursed wheel.

Betting value

• Playable side: Purdue +114

• Pass/fade: Maryland -145

At +114, you are buying Purdue as if it wins this game less than half the time. My projection has the Boilers winning it a bit more often than not, so that is the side with value.

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_______

My projection

• Mets win probability: 53%

• Astros win probability: 47%

Equivalent fair American odds

• Mets: -113

• Astros: +113

Book vs. projection

• Mets -104

  • Book implied win probability: 51.0%

  • My projected win probability: 53.0%

  • Value vs. book: +2.0 percentage points

  • Fair line -113 vs book -104 = small value on Mets

• Astros -117

  • Book implied win probability: 53.9%

  • My projected win probability: 47.0%

  • Value vs. book: -6.9 percentage points

  • Fair line +113 vs book -117 = overpriced

Projected score

• Mets 5, Astros 4

Why I lean Mets:

The Astros’ listed starter is Ryan Weiss, while the Mets’ official probable-pitcher page still showed TBD for this game. ESPN also listed New York as Undecided against Weiss..

That said, the Mets beat writers reported Freddy Peralta was scheduled to pitch Saturday against Houston, which is a pretty meaningful upgrade from generic spring-training uncertainty. The New York Post noted Peralta was lined up for this game, and earlier in camp it also reported he had struck out four over three innings in a prior spring outing and is building toward Opening Day.

Even if New York does not get a full Peralta workload, the team form is better. ESPN’s spring team stats page had the Mets at 10-7-1 with a .232 AVG, .334 OBP, .382 SLG, 83 runs, and a 2.94 team ERA. Houston was 7-10-3 with a .193 AVG, .319 OBP, .304 SLG, 76 runs, and a 3.45 team ERA. That is a clear edge to the Mets in both run prevention and overall offensive quality.

The recent form also favors New York, though not by a mile. Over the last five listed games, the Mets went 3-2 including wins of 8-3, 6-1, and 9-0. Houston was also 3-2, but the underlying spring profile is weaker and the Astros have scored less efficiently overall.

There is still a real case for Houston because Ryan Weiss has been sharp. MLB listed him at 1.69 ERA with 6 strikeouts, and the Houston Chronicle highlighted him as one of the Astros’ spring standouts after his return from Korea. That keeps this from becoming a bigger Mets edge.

The bullpen/injury context nudges me a little more toward New York. An injury report showed Josh Hader out until April 10 for Houston, along with a couple of day-to-day bullpen arms, while the Mets are missing A.J. Minter and some depth pieces but still bring the better spring run-prevention profile overall. In a spring game that often turns into a parade of half-known relievers and baseball goblins, the healthier late-game setup matters.

Betting value

• Lean: Mets -104

• No value: Astros -117

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

West Ham vs Man City
EPL, Saturday, 4pm ET

Play: Under 3 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

West Ham are +365 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +320 and Man City are -145 favourites in the road, with the Spread at 0.75 and the Total at 3.

West Ham fighting to avoid relegation, currently sitting inside the red zone with 28 points, as many as Nottingham above them (who are in between their Europa League knockouts) and both teams 1 point behind Tottenham, who play Liverpool this weekend and against Nottingham next week. So West Ham would definitely fight for some points vs Man City, who also lost by 3-0 to Real Madrid mid-week and now have to overturn a 3-goal deficit at home next Tuesday.

West Ham are currently on a 4-1 run to the Under 2.5 Goals in league play. Man City are on a 14-2 run to the Under 3.5 Goals in the EPL and I think they will just want to spend as few resources as possible in this game, as they have a huge match coming up against Real Madrid.

For what it's worth, West Ham's coach Espirito Santo (which by the way literally translates to Holy Spirit), has faced Man City's Pep Guardiola more than any other manager in his career, with W4 D1 L8. Each of the last 6 H2H between these two coaches finished with 3 goals or fewer, and 4 of 6 went to the Under 2.5. This is a match-up that usually produces goals, but this time around it looks an awful lot like a careful match between these two.

The Play is Under 3 Goals (-105)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

[FREE PICK] on South Florida.

Charlotte has surprisingly won back-to-back games to start the American Conference Tournament. The 49ers ended the regular season losing seven of their last nine however, and didn’t show much fight down the stretch. Even though they’ve picked up two wins here, their defensive struggles are still a big concern, ranking No. 284 in defensive efficiency. That’s a dangerous weakness against a team like USF, which ranks No. 59 in offensive efficiency. The Bulls are also on a nine-game winning streak and handled Charlotte easily in their last meeting, winning by 23 points. USF comes into this matchup well rested, while Charlotte will be playing its third game in as many days. USF wins big.

Good until -15.5

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Winners of 10 straight and 20 of their past 21, Duke is running through the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils are ranked #1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 4^th on offense. They’ve hung 100+ on their opponents on multiple occasions over the past few weeks, and Virginia simply doesn’t have the personnel to match up. The Cavs played Duke just 2 weeks ago, losing 77-51. Watch the Blue Devils roll to an ACC Tournament Championship today, picking up the cover in the process. Take Duke.

100% (5-0) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

Don’t miss today’s 5% TOP PLAY!

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

We make a small play on the Wild in regulation as the number is a little higher than we expected. However it is deserved for the Wild. The Rangers have been playing some decent hockey of late. Even though the Rangers have won 3 straight going to Grand Casino Arena after the Wild just lost, is going to be a tall task to come out with a win. We cannot lay 235 on the ML so we do lay the regulation line. We give the Wild another shot after costing us one on Thursday. Minnesota have beat the Rangers at MSG already and we like our chances for a complete game from the Wild tonight.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

The Canucks managed to eke out a s/o victory over the Predators on Thursday. However, they haven't won two games in a row since before Christmas. Off four straight losses, the Kraken are coming in hungry. They've beaten the Canucks in five of the past six h2h meetings, both in 2026. With much tougher opponents (Florida and Tampa) on deck, the Kraken need to take advantage of this favorable matchup. They will. Play Seattle. *good at -150 or better

Ben Burns is the #1 Basketball Handicapper of All-Time

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

Chelsea vs Newcastle
EPL, Saturday, 11:30am ET

Play: Over 4.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

Chelsea are -120 favourites at home, the Draw at +330 and Newcastle are +285 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 0.75, or 0.5, it keeps moving, and the Total at 3.25

Both teams coming off mid-week matches in the Champions League knockouts, and they both have the second legs to play next week, so don't expect them to play like they usually do here.

Chelsea were holding on for a draw away at PSG but fell apart in the second half and eventually lost by 5-2, they now need kind of a miracle in order to go through.

Newcastle did extremely well when they hosted Barcelona, they eventually took the lead at the 86th minute but conceded a late penalty kick at the 6th minute of stoppage time for a 1-1 draw. Now they have to go to Barcelona and avoid the loss if they want to have a chance to go through.

Can't go anywhere near sides or totals here, this is an extremely volatile match that could really go anywhere, no result would surprise me, really.

One thing has been constant in recent H2Hs, and that's cards, with the reverse fixture producing 9 cards, and 8/6/9/4/6/11 in L/3 seasons.

Referee Paul Tierney isn't the best referee for cards out there, but this is a strange game and only cards come to mind.

The Play is Over 4.5 Cards (-125)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Arsenal vs Everton
EPL, Saturday, 11:30am ET

Play: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Arsenal are -270 favourites at home, the Draw at +370 and Everton are +940 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 1.25 and the Total at 2.5

I told you guys in the Champions League video that that +750 on Leverkusen to Qualify over Arsenal was too much. Also gave you Leverkusen +1 AND the 1-1 Correct Score (+600) on my Twitter (that you can find below). Arsenal are playing in 4 competitions and there is absolutely NO way they can be good in all 4. My personal estimate is that their priority is the EPL, and we saw them barely avoiding the loss mid-week thanks to a late penalty kick.

Now back home to face Everton, who are playing really good soccer this season, currently sitting 8th with 43 points, and just 5 points outside the top-5 spots that grant tickets to the European competitions next season. Much like last season, extra European spots might open up for England depending on who wins their domestic Cups and whether any English team will win the Champions, Europa or the Conference League. So Everton are hoping, and they've actually been better on the road than they've been at home, grabbing 24 points away from home on a W7 D3 L4 record, which is actually the 3rd best.

Kings of the Unders in the EPL this season, with 19-10 to the Under 2.5 Goals and an average of 2.3 goals/match, and also 10-4 to the Under 2.5 Goals on the road with an average of 1.9 goals/match.

H2Hs usually have very few goals, with the reverse fixture and both H2Hs last season going Under 2.5 Goals, and also 5 of L/7 went to the Under.

Strange match this one, as Arsenal also have the second leg at home vs Leverkusen coming up, this looks like a slow game to me but I haven't really kept a close eye on Everton this season, so I am just guessing as to how they will approach this match.

The Under 2.5 Goals is -115, and could be the best way to bet this match.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Gillian Robertson to win by decision (+175)

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago