$5 TUESDAY | 8-2 (80%) ON THE SEASON | SUNDAY NFL

THE PLAY: South Florida +4.0 (-112)

PLAY: USF +4

You snooze, you lose. I wanted to give this one out for my $5 Tuesday play, but it appears I'm late to the party. I still like the South Florida Bulls here. The Bulls defense is allowing 15.1 points a game, and they've held four opponents to 10 or fewer: FIU (9), Bowling Green (6), Kent State (2), and UAB (10). Even Saturday's 20-17 loss at East Carolina took a 55-yard field goal from Andrew Conrad as time expired.

The quarterback is the question. Michael Van Buren Jr. (6 TDs, 0 INTs) missed the ECU game with an undisclosed injury, and there's been no update on his status for Thursday. But Luke Kromenhoek was sharp in his first start, going 17-of-21 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no picks. D.J. Crowther got banged up on the opening drive and still ran for 111.

I faded Memphis early in the season and got burnt. That was until they went on the road. They lost 38-20 at Boise State and 31-17 at Tulane.

A Thursday night home dog with the best defense on the field? This one opened +6.5 and is down to +4.5 and +4 in some places. Give me the Bulls to win this one.

THE PLAY: Total Under 45.0 (-110)

PLAY: Under 45.5

Minnesota has played six straight games that finished at 39 total points or fewer. The Vikings' defense is allowing just 13.3 points per game, and nobody has scored more than 19 on them since the opener versus Green Bay.

Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring strain, Carson Wentz gets the nod. His last game was a 9-3 win in the rain at Chicago, where he went 11-of-20 for 143 yards. No matter who is under center, the Minnesota offense hasn't scored more than 23 points since Week 1 and is averaging under 280 total yards per game.

We all know Buffalo’s totals run high. Their games average 59 points, five of seven went 55 or higher, and the Bills offense averages 33 points a game. Buffalo's defense is coming off its best game of the year, holding Baltimore to 10 points and 144 total yards.