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THE PLAY: TCU +9.5 (-112)

From a sheer numbers perspective, TCU (plus the points) looks like a good value this week. I don’t think this spread should be above a touchdown, quite frankly. The Horned Frogs were part of a winning ML parlay for me last Saturday as they scored a late TD to defeat Kansas 22-14. Now, we probably were a little lucky considering Kansas was +165 in total yards.

But, as I put in the writeup (which you can, of course, read down below), TCU was due for some good luck. All four of the Horned Frogs’ losses this season have been by eight points or fewer. So, again, grabbing +9.5 with them this week makes a lot of sense. TCU has a Top 10 scoring defense in the country. Just 14.1 PPG allowed. They’re also Top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, it's a bit of a letdown spot here for Arizona, after a close loss at Texas Tech on Saturday. I would not want to lay this number with them on Friday. Not with a bigger home game (vs. Utah) on deck.

THE PLAY: Sheffield United -104

3% Sheffield United (2:45 ET): Anytime opportunity to fade Preston North End at this price, you have to do it. The Lilywhites are bottom of the table in the EFL Championship, having won just one of their 13 league matches this season. That solitary win came all the way back on September 5th, 2-1 here at home against Blackburn Rovers. Since then, Preston have gone winless in eight straight, losing six times. There’s been no “new manager bounce” since Graham Alexander took over with four losses in the last five matches. It’s undeniable that Preston is the worst team in the Championship this season. They’ve scored the fewest number of goals (10) while also conceding the most (27). Opta has their relegation odds at just over 80%.

Sheffield United is just three seasons removed from being in the Premier League. They finished rock bottom in the top flight during 2023-24, but were third in the Championship the following season before losing in the Promotion Playoff. Last season saw the Blades dip to a very disappointing 13th. I fully expect this to be a bounce back campaign for Chris Wilder’s side, who have taken 10 points from the last five league matches while going unbeaten in the last three. It was a 1-0 win against Wrexham on Friday. This promises to be one of the easiest fixtures of the season and Sheffield have a one-day rest edge over their beleaguered opponent.

Don’t expect Sheffield United to take this match lightly either. Preston did the double against them last season (won both meetings). In fact, Sheffield are winless in their last eight against Preston! But this is clearly the worst edition of Preston in some time. Preston have failed to score in three of their last five matches including a 2-0 loss at Stoke City on Saturday. It should be an easy three points here for the visitors. Play them on the 3-way line. 3% Sheffield United (Play to -130)