BEARS/PATRIOTS: TNF DYNAMITE • RED HOT 24-11 (+31.68) FOOTBALL RUN!

THE PLAY: Miami Dolphins +5.0 (-110)

The hold-your-nose special of the week. Since the 2021-22 season, Miami has gone 8-2 straight-up, 6-3-1 against the spread in this AFC East matchup. Miami won-and-covered both meetings last season. Five of the last six contests between the Jets and Dolphins have gone over the total. Miami is coming off its bye week after starting the year 0-5 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread. The Dolphins' lone point spread cover this season came at Minnesota as a 9.5-point 'dog where the Vikings took a voluntary knee at the goal line in the closing minute to keep Miami within the lofty spread. The Jets return home after a disappointing effort at New England last week. New York has opened as a 4.5-point home favorite in this contest, and if that point spread holds true through out the week, it will be the most points the Jets have been asked to lay since mid-November 2024. New York went 0-2 straight-up and against the spread as a favorite last season, but did beat Cleveland as a small home favorite two weeks ago. Through Week 6, division underdogs have gone 15-12-1 straight-up, 20-8 against the spread this season. Per betting analyst Evan Abrams, that's the second-best start for division underdogs at the betting window in the Super Bowl era. Miami is returning from its bye week and should be a little healthier. Wide receiver Caleb Douglas is scheduled to return to practice this week after missing the last three games. The Jets are hoping to get some pieces back this week, specifically on offense. Running back Breece Hall, wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, offensive lineman Dylan Parham and edge rusher Joseph Ossai all missed last week's loss to the Patriots. At the end of the day, it's very, very difficult to find anything nice to say about Miami right now other than "They are coming off a bye." But we simply can't trust a team led by Aaron Glenn and Geno Smith to win by 6+ points. Glenn stumbled his way through an interview during last week's game, suggesting that he didn't know which team would be getting the ball after halftime. Over the last five games, Smith has been sacked 19 times. For all of Miami's struggles (and there are plenty), you can now look back at the Dolphins' schedule with a bit more context. This week's game against New York represents a significant drop in class compared to San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Cincinnati, which Miami played before the bye. Realistically, the Dolphins probably only have 3-4 chances to win a game this season, and this might be the best one. We're expecting to see a solid effort out of Miami on Sunday. Play Miami Dolphins

THE PLAY: Arkansas State +2.0 (-108)

The RedWolves and Panthers have only met one time over the past five seasons - Arkansas State's 27-20 road win in November 2024. For what it's worth, the Panthers out-gained the RedWolves by 53 yards in that contest. Georgia State's six-game winning streak at the betting window came to a close last week as the Panthers were crushed by James Madison. JMU led 35-10 at halftime as the Dukes' defense held Georgia State QB Cameran Brown to 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Arkansas State found the win column with a 23-13 road win at Southern Miss last week. Four of the RedWolves' last five games have stayed under the total. Georgia State entered this season with a win total projection of 3.5, which the Panthers cleared by Week 5. We don't want to take anything away from what Georgia State has accomplished this season, but the fact remains they lost by 14 and 27 in their two toughest games thus far. Per Sagarin, Georgia State's strength of schedule ranks No. 122. Arkansas State has played the tougher schedule and has largely played up to expectation thus far. We believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Play Arkansas State

THE PLAY: Total Under 50.5 (-105)

Perhaps the Philadelphia Eagles doctors (who allowed Jalen Hurts back on the field at London on October 11 despite discovering a blood clot in his leg..sheesh!) would have cleared Oregon QB Dante Moore to play last Saturday vs. Nebraska. Yet having not yet gotten beyond concussion protocols in the wake of the scary hit (cheap shot?) delivered by USC LB Desman Stephens II back on September 26 at the LA Coliseum, Moore’s status remains on a week-to-week basis...stay tuned for further developments. Before checking to see if Dan Fouts had any remaining eligibility in Eugene, and before it was too late last week vs. the Huskers, Ducks head coach Dan Lanning wisely pulled struggling former third-stringer Brock Thomas and went back to Dylan Raiola, who atoned for a poor showing the week before vs. UCLA by leading the winning rally vs. his former Nebraska team. Still, the Webfoots have been struggling in shallow water the past two weeks, scoring only 16 points per game while splitting a pair of low-scoring decisions at home. We remind you that even if Moore can return this week, Oregon lost in his previous road start at Oklahoma State in September. Of course, Illinois counterpart Bret Bielema can relate to Lanning as his QB Katin Houser (via East Carolina) is now sidelined into November with a hand injury, requiring frosh Michael Clayton II out of the bullpen to pull out an OT win over Michigan State on October 10. Though last week’s bye at least gave Clayton (who showed no fear when completing 6-of-8 for 88 yards and 2 TDs when coming in late vs. the Spartans) a chance to get better acclimated, and he can lean a bit on a serviceable infantry that pounded out nearly 200 yards on the ground at Ohio State a few weeks ago and features an Air Force-style, between-the-tackles banger in senior Aidan Laughery, gaining better than 6.3 yards per carry. Bottom line? The Ducks have only covered two of their last eight vs. FBS opposition, and even if Moore returns, we're struggling to see how Oregon will rediscover its knockout power. With QB questions on both sides, we're expecting another low-scoring affair. Play the Under