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THE PLAY: Sacramento Kings +4.5 (-104)

Who is scoring for the Clippers tonight? Kawhi's in Toronto, Zubac's in Indiana, Harden's gone, and Ingram, Beal and Strus are all in street clothes. I'm taking the Kings +4.5 in the opener, and I'd play it down to +4.

The bottom line here is these are two bad teams, and the Clippers are laying points with half their rotation on the injury report. Sacramento has the best player on the floor in Sabonis, and the Clippers don't have a big who can keep him off the glass.

The Clippers went 42-40 last year and lost in the play-in. Then they tore the whole thing down. The market has their win total at 30.5. Darius Garland is the guy now, and after him it's Brook Lopez, Gradey Dick and the No. 5 pick, Keaton Wagler, who's stepping into Strus's minutes as a rookie on opening night. Their injury report is about as long as their rotation.

Sacramento isn't healthy either. Simmons is done for the year, Raynaud and Cardwell are both out, and Monk is questionable after missing all of preseason. Still, they've got Sabonis, LaVine, Keegan Murray and De'Andre Hunter, and that's more proven talent than the Clippers can put on the floor tonight. Sabonis won the rebounding title in each of his last three full seasons, and with Zubac gone, nobody on this roster is boxing him out for 36 minutes. Second chances are where the Kings cover this.

The money has been on Sacramento all week. This line went up to 5.5 and came right back to 4.5, so grab it before it goes away. I see a tight one, something like 112-110 either way, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Kings win it outright at +160.

The Play: Kings +4.5 (-105, DK)

THE PLAY: Total Under 5.5 (101)

This total opened at 6 and it's already been bet down to 5.5, and you can still get plus money on the Under. I like the Under 5.5 goals in Florida-Ottawa tonight. Grab it now. I'd play it to -115, and I'm staying away at 5.

The bottom line is Ottawa can't score and Ullmark isn't letting much in. I've got the Sens for 2, maybe 3. Can Florida get 3 or more on the road against a goalie sitting at .945? I don't think so.

Let's be honest here, this Ottawa offence is ugly. They're scoring 2.44 goals a game on about 23 shots, and the power play is running at 12.8%. Last time out they scored once on 26 shots in Philadelphia, against a Flyers team that gives up more shots than anybody in the league. That's right. Two of their six wins came in a shootout. This team plays tight games because it has to.

I get it, Florida's rolling: three straight wins, 18 goals and an 8-3 win over Seattle. With that said, two of those three were at home against Vancouver and Seattle. Now they open a four-game road trip in Ottawa without Barkov and without Marchand, and they're facing Ullmark at 6-1-0 with a 1.33 GAA. Florida only allows 24 shots a game, so neither team is getting peppered. Who starts in goal for Florida doesn't change much for me. If Markstrom's back, even better. If it's Schmid, Ottawa still has to find 3 or 4, and this offence hasn't shown me it can.

I see a 3-2 game, or 2-1 if Ullmark keeps doing what he's doing. An empty-netter is the only thing that scares me. Not a max play, but I like it.

The Play: Under 5.5 (+102)