THURSDAY 88% COLLEGE FOOTBALL-CRUSH JOB • 7-1 RECORD TESTED

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)

Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

THE PLAY: Oklahoma -6.5 (-122)

This is the first meeting between Oklahoma and Kentucky since the Sooners joined the SEC. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week. Kentucky has won-and-covered each of its last four games after last week's home win over LSU. The Wildcats have already earned three outright upset wins in SEC play, and for roughly 45 minutes, it looked like they were going to upset Alabama, too. Kentucky's last five games have all gone over the total, although the last two were both aided by overtime. While Kentucky finds itself in a thriller every week, Oklahoma finds ways to win in the ugliest fashion possible. The Sooners earned the Red River victory over Texas last week with only one touchdown scored on offense. Oklahoma finished with 238 total yards and 14 first downs on 4.2 yards per play. The Sooners went 2-for-13 on third down and had to punt nine times. Laying points with Oklahoma is not easy at the moment, but we can only look in the Sooners' direction. Will Stein deserves a ton of credit for what he is building in Lexington, but at some point, you simply run out of gas. Oklahoma had a bye two weeks ago, so the Sooners' legs are relatively fresh. Kentucky just played back-to-back overtime games in the SEC, and they were pushed to the limit by South Alabama the week before that. At some point, you run out of gas. Oklahoma's defense is top-10 in the country in almost every meaningful metric. Play Oklahoma

THE PLAY: Arizona State +14.5 (-106)

When we’re saying things aren’t the same in Lubbock this year, we’re not talking about the ribeyes at the local Saltgrass Steak House, which remain as good as ever. Rather, it’s the local Red Raiders, who despite being unbeaten like they were at this stage in 2025 are not really doing it in the same manner after stomping through most of their schedule a year ago like Godzilla once did to Tokyo. To wit: unless one timed the bet just right against outclassed Sam Houston, the Red Raiders didn’t have a spread cover the first month of this season until Colorado imploded in a hail of giveaways in the 4th Q at Boulder two weeks ago, turning a close game into a 29-7 Texas Tech win, and even then the Lubbock boys were outgained by the bumbling Buffs. Those issues on offense have been constant all season and a fear among Texas Tech backers since the Brendan Sorsby transfer from Cincinnati went off the rails in the offseason. Holdover QB Will Hammond has yet to look like he's shaken off last year's knee injury while posting very modest (subpar?) numbers including just 5 TD passes along with 5 picks into mid-October, while Joey McGuire’s potential rabbit-up-his-sleeve, mobile ex-BC and Florida State transfer Tommy Castellanos, a possible alternative after his late summer transfer, is now off the table (for the time being, at least) after a Kentucky court just sided with the NCAA and invalidated Tommy’s eligibility. Moreover, despite facing various outmanned foes, the ground game isn’t bullying foes like last season, either, with leading returning rusher Cam Dickey's (1124 YR in 2025) reduced contributions this term and ankle injury suffered at Boulder among other issues. It’s worth noting that it was none other than Arizona State that put the one regular-season blemish on the Red Raiders a year ago at Tempe in Sam Leavitt’s last hurrah as Sun Devils QB before a season-ending injury, so we suppose there is a revenge factor on the side of McGuire’s troops. Our question here is trusting this Arizona State version that was recently exposed by a Baylor side whose offense had previously borne a resemblance to UTEP’s, but would nonetheless burn the Sun Devils for 55 points. Yet Tech’s previous struggles with some comparable or even lesser sides makes us doubt this Red Raider version can be trusted to extend margins like a year ago, and can expect ASU’s Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley (12 TD passes) to at least keep winging the ball for 60 minutes. Play Arizona State **VALID AT +13 AND ABOVE