Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line (-114)

Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman
Argentina, Friday, 6pm ET

Play: Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -114
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Lanus are getting ready for the Copa Sudamericana Final next Saturday vs Atletico MG, but they do have the final match day of the regular season in the Clausura in their domestic league. They will make the playoffs no matter what, but it's Atletico Tucuman who are absolutely dying for a win here in order to have a chance for the playoffs. They are sitting 1 point behind the playoffs, and they are playing the only match on Friday, which means that if they win they will temporarily overtake 4 teams and wait for Saturday's results.

Lanus haven't been very aggressive lately, but Atletico Tucuman have.

Lanus Cards For at home: 2.2/game 
Lanus Cards Against at home: 2.53/game

Atletico Tucuman Cards For on the road: 3.00/game
Atletico Tucuman Cards Against on the road: 2.20/game

These stats tell us that Lanus get fewer cards at home than their opponents, and Atletico Tucuman get more cards on the road than their opponents.

The Asian Spread in Cards is 0.5, which means that getting Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards makes perfect sense based on stats. And that also checks out based on the urgency for the two teams, with Lanus being much more comfortable than Atletico Tucuman, and are playing better soccer, so Atletico Tucuman will have reasons to get angry and start kicking.

Atletico Tucuman got more cards than their opponents in 7 of L/10 matches, and in 5 of L/6

Lanus saw their opponents getting the most cards in each of L/4 matches, which coincides with the period where they secured the playoffs and were focusing more on the Copa Sudamericana.

The two teams last met in May 3rd, where Atletico Tucuman won by 1-0 at home and got 6 cards to Lanus' just 1. I think Atletico Tucuman get the most cards here, so we ride.

Take 2% on Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line (-114 B365), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Faroe Islands Double Chance (+947)

Croatia vs Faroe Islands
European World Cup Qualifiers, Friday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Faroe Islands Double Chance
Odds at Time of Release: +723
Line Parameter: Line good to +650

Croatia have dominated these qualifiers, sitting at the top of their group with 16 points, the Czech Republic have 13 and the Faroe Islands have 12. Croatia do have a match in hand, so a win or a draw on Friday would see them qualify to the World Cup. Only if they lose they will be in danger, but they still have one more match so they can make it happen. Although I do think that they will qualify on Friday.

The Faroe Islands have been a nice surprise in this group stage, sitting 3rd with 12 points and they still have some chances to qualify as 2nd (and go to the playoffs), but that can happen only if they get a result in Croatia and the Czech Republic drop points vs Gibraltar (which seems quite unlikely). In fact, if the Faroe Islands beat Croatia and the Czech Republic lose or draw to Gibraltar, the Faroe Islands will finish 2nd. If they draw vs Croatia, they can only hope the Czech Republic lose to Gibraltar.

Long-shots, but they still have mathematical chances and will try to deplete them. But they need a result in Croatia, no matter how hard it seems. They weren't all that bad in the 1-0 loss to Croatia at home, they rarely lose by 2+ goals (in fact each of L/6 losses came by exactly 1 goal) and they are looking for a result.

Croatia might be a bettor favourite, but they are HUGE -1160 favourites at home (Draw at +945 and Faroe Islands ML at +2800) in a match that they don't even need to win. You have to understand that teams are not looking to score 10 goals in their matches and cover whatever spread the books are giving them, they just need to qualify for the World Cup by any means necessary. And as long as they are qualifying with a Draw, and playing vs a team that will go all in, I ain't touching any bets on Croatia.

But I do like that juicy +947 on the Draw, the +723 on Faroe Islands Double Chance, that +285 on Faroe Islands Team Total Over 0.5 and even Faroe Islands +2.25. We're going for some crazy odds on Friday, in a weird day, so going with 1u on Faroe Islands Double Chance +723.

Take 0.5% on Faroe Islands Double Chance (+723), line good to +650

THE PLAY: REGULATION Gibraltar Double Chance (+365)

Gibraltar vs Montenegro
European World Cup Qualifiers, Friday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Gibraltar or Draw Double Chance
Odds at Time of Release: +365
Line Parameter: Line good to +330

Two teams that have been eliminated from the World Cup will lock horns on Friday, when Gibraltar will play host to Montenegro. This is an indifferent match in terms of points, so this is a tricky match and I don't think the odds reflect the situation here.

Montenegro are -500 favourites on the road, the Draw is at +550 and Gibraltar are +1300 underdogs at home, with the Spread set at 1.75 and the Total set at 3.

Montenegro are TERRIBLE away from home, W0 L3 in this stage with ZERO goals and 10 conceded, and now win-less in L/10 away matches (W0 D1 L9), scoring just 4 goals and conceding 22 goals in the process. Failed to score in each of L/7 away matches, and conceded 2+ goals in 7 of L/10. They should NOT be -500 favourites here, even if they were chasing something.

Gibraltar are usually the punching bags in the qualifiers, but this team can be tricky, and now on an indifferent match, they could do something here. They've lost all 6 matches with just 2 goals scored and 20 conceded, have lost all 3 at home with zero goals and 12 conceded, and in situations like this we see teams trying to wipe off that zero from the stats. They will try to get their first point in the entire group stage, but also to score their first home goal.

I know this might sound weird, but it's an indifferent match, Montenegro have been extremely bad on the road (we already knew that about Gibraltar) and the odds are all over the place. Big chance on an upset here, my thoughts for this game are: Gibraltar Team Total Over 0.5 (+138), Gibraltar +1.75 (+103), Gibraltar Double Chance (+365). All viable options, this is a strange game, so we take 1% on the Double Chance, see if it sticks.

Take 1% on Gibraltar Double Chance (+365), line good to +330

THE PLAY: REGULATION Draw +400

Ireland vs Portugal
European World Cup Qualifiers, Thursday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Draw
Odds at Time of Release: +400
Line Parameter: Line good to +350

Portugal are top of this group with 10 points, Hungary are 2nd with 5, Ireland are 3rd with 4 and Armenia are 4th with 3 points, and there's a lot of moving pieces in this group. Portugal are already 5 points ahead of Hungary and with a +7 goal difference, so a Draw vs Ireland wouldn't necessarily be a terrible result, as it could see them qualify depending on what happens in the other match of the group. Plus, they also have Armenia at home in the last match day to get points if they need them. And it's not like they've been playing well, they only beat Armenia easily, they struggled against Hungary (2-2 draw at home and 3-2 win on the road) and they only beat Ireland by a slim 1-0 at home with a goal in the stoppage time. Yes, they are stacked in terms of roster, but the coach is simply not good.

Ireland still have viable chances for the 2nd spot, but they will probably need to get at least a point vs Portugal here, as they play against Hungary in the last match day and that match will shape the group. They haven't been good offensively but they do have a tight defense that can frustrate Portugal.

In fact, they have sort of frustrated Portugal in all three H2H in L/5 years, with a 0-0 draw at home in the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers, and two losses in Portugal (2-1 and 1-0) that came extremely hard, as they conceded the losing goals in the stoppage time in BOTH matches. Plus, they have never lost to Portugal as hosts (W1 D2 L0). I don't trust this Portugal side mainly due to their coach, but also on their fixation on Cristiano Ronaldo. They tend to struggle against tight defenses and Ireland do have one.

As stated before, Portugal can do their job and qualify even with a draw here, so that -290 on Portugal ML is kind of laughable. But that +400 on the Draw looks great for a longshot.

Take 0.5% on the Draw (+400), line good to +350

THE PLAY: REGULATION Serbia Total Over 0.5 (-102)

England vs Serbia
European World Cup Qualifiers, Thursday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Serbia Team Total Over 0.5 
Odds at Time of Release: -102
Line Parameter: Line good to -115

England are the first European team to have mathematically qualified to the World Cup with two matches remaining, so they will probably mix and match a little bit as coach Tuchel is looking to sharpen his squad. They do have a lot of absences, but they have a stacked roster and are still very much competitive. England have conceded ZERO goals in 6 matches, but we will chase their first conceded goal in these qualifiers, starting with their home match vs Serbia. If this doesn't win, we'll go again in a few days in their away match vs Albania.

Serbia are sitting 3rd in the group and now the qualification is not in their hands. They failed to beat (hateful) rivals Albania (loss and a draw) and they are now 1 point behind them, which means that they are dying for some points here. Albania are playing vs the weakest team in the group (Andorra), and will probably win, but they also have their last match vs England, where they might drop points. My point being, Serbia will have to go to England in this match and look for a draw or a win.

This bet comes with a degree of risk, as Serbia have failed to score in two H2H vs England over the last year, but we are going against England's clean sheet record and also with Serbia's motive. They are generational fumblers, but I am willing to take the risk at a solid price. This is based on what they want, not what they can do. 

Take 2% on Serbia Team Total Over 0.5 (-102), line good to -115