Marco D'Angelo

THE PLAY: South Carolina +4.5 (-115)

This one’s straightforward — it’s all about fading Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming off their first loss of the season to Texas in the Red River Shootout, and that’s exactly the kind of spot I love to go against. I’ve said it many times: when a team plays a huge game and comes up short, there’s a real risk they lose twice — once on the field, and again the following week when they come out flat. That alone makes me fade Oklahoma here. But the real kicker? They’ve got a massive showdown with Ole Miss on deck. This is a Classic sandwich spot. South Carolina, meanwhile, showed some fight last week in a 20–10 loss to LSU. They’re quietly playing tougher football than people realize, and I think they’ll push Oklahoma to the limit. South Carolina 23, Oklahoma 20.

TAKE S. CAROLINA 

THE PLAY: Georgia -7.0 (-109)

What a matchup we’ve got: #6 vs. #9. With two top-10 teams like this, you’d normally expect a tight line — maybe around a field goal (-3 or -3.5). But Vegas sees it differently. The #9 team was actually favored by more than a touchdown at -7.5 now down to -7 over the #6. That tells you plenty. I’ve always said I trust the oddsmakers behind the counter more than the poll voters watching games from home. Vegas is making a statement here — they see one-loss Georgia as clearly superior to undefeated Ole Miss. Yes, Ole Miss hasn’t lost, but their schedule tells a story. Their only standout win was a 24-19 victory over LSU, and LSU has struggled offensively this season. Even then, Ole Miss was held to 24 points — at home.
They’ve been in shootouts too: a 41-35 win over Arkansas and a 30-23 squeaker against Kentucky. The key difference in this matchup? Georgia’s defense. They’ve allowed 24 points or fewer to every opponent except Tennessee, who pushed them in a 44-41 overtime thriller earlier this year. Add to that Georgia’s experience in big moments — playoff runs, national title games — and it’s easy to see why Vegas gives the edge to the Dawgs. I agree and I see Georgia winning by 10-14 points. 

TAKE GEORGIA 

THE PLAY: Total Under 62.5 (-105)

At first glance, last week’s results might suggest another high-scoring affair since UNLV was in a 51-48 shootout, and Boise State had a 41-25 blowout. But this game is essentially a playoff matchup. The winner will likely clinch the Mountain West title, and if UNLV wins, they could finish the season undefeated and secure an at-large playoff bid. Looking at UNLV’s 51-48 shootout against Air Force, I predicted Air Force would score well because their offense is nearly unstoppable. They run the option and now pass for over 200 yards per game. Air Force moved the ball up and down the field, but their defense is as weak as their offense is strong, allowing UNLV to respond each time. This won’t be the case against Boise State, who traditionally uses a physical, smash-mouth style to control the game—something UNLV has yet to prove they can stop. With the playoff stakes high, both teams are likely to adopt a more conservative approach, avoiding early mistakes. All these factors point to a lower-scoring game than recent totals suggest, giving us extra value on this matchup’s total points line.

TAKE UNLV/BOISE ST UNDER 62.5

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