Bryan Power

THE PLAY: California +3.0 (-109)

Hate this spot for Duke, flying across the country for a late night kickoff (10:30 PM ET). The last time Cal hosted a team from “out East,” they beat Minnesota 27-14. Since then, it's been B2B road games. First, a loss as 2 TD favorites at San Diego State. But then it was a big bounce back last week to pull the outright upset at Boston College. I really like the QB (JKS) here in Berkeley. 

Meanwhile, this is the fifth consecutive week that Duke is playing a game where the spread is going to be four points or less. Such a string of competitive matchups takes a lot out of a team, even if things were easier than expected last week at Syracuse (who was playing with a backup QB). Two weeks ago, I did play Duke at home vs. NC State (3% winner). But even then, I was sure note that this Blue Devils team was outgained in ACC play last year. They were fortunate to finish with a winning record. I'm down on them, relative to expectations, this season. 

THE PLAY: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (+100)

The Buccaneers were very lucky to start the season 3-0. In fact, they required a GW drive in the final minute in each of those three games. Almost pulled off another comeback last week at home vs. Philadelphia, but came up short. Now they travel cross-country to face a Seahawks team that is a far more impressive 3-1. 

This should - finally - be the game where all of Baker Mayfield’s turnover-worthy throws come back to bite him. Lots of injuries on the Bucs’ side as well. To be exact, there were 16 players that made the injury report. 

Seattle hasn’t played since last Thursday, so they’re a little more rested, not to mention at home. Seahawks are #1 in DVOA through four weeks. They’re the better team here and I would lay it.