Will Rogers

THE PLAY: Total Under 160.5 (-110)

The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury tip off the NBA Finals tonight. Three of their four regular-season matchups, including both games in Las Vegas, ended under the total. Expect this game to follow suit. 

Both teams are coming off high-scoring final games in their previous series, with the Aces’ game extended by overtime. However, in Game 1 of their last series, both teams’ games stayed under the total. Phoenix’s two visits to Las Vegas resulted in very low-scoring games, with final scores of 146 and 144, despite higher over/under lines than tonight's. 

Vegas won the last meeting by 22 and the under has been very profitable the past 2 seasons when the Mercury were revenging a blowout loss versus opponent of 20 or more points. Phoenix only scored 61 in that game. Go with the under. 

THE PLAY: Carolina Panthers +1.5 (-110)

I bet on the Dolphins in their last two games, and they performed well, covering against the Bills and defeating the Jets. I also bet against the Panthers last week, and they were crushed by the Patriots. Success in NFL betting often comes from going against the grain. Now that bettors are starting to trust the Dolphins again, it’s time to pivot away from them. Last week, bettors gave the Panthers a chance too soon. They zig. We zag. 

Home-field advantage is significant, and it will play a role this Sunday. The Dolphins, 0-2 on the road, lost Hill during their win over the Jets and now face a short week. They gave up more than 400 yards to New York; their struggle to stop the run in that game is a concern against Carolina. The Panthers have only had one home game this season, which they won 30-0. Since Week 9 last season, Carolina is 6-1 against the spread at home. Play Carolina 

THE PLAY: UCLA +26.0 (-110)

My complimentary selection is on UCLA. Penn State narrowly lost a crucial game against Oregon in double overtime at home. Trailing 17-3 in the fourth quarter, the Nittany Lions rallied back, with quarterback Allar throwing a touchdown to Devonte Ross with 30 seconds remaining, making it 17-16. Coach Franklin opted for the extra point to tie the game at 17-17 instead of attempting a two-point conversion for the win, a choice now questioned by some after the loss in overtime.

Off that gut-wrenching loss, the Lions have to travel across the country and they're being asked to win by nearly four touchdowns. Given the circumstances, that's too much. With UCLA’s history of covering a similar spread as a 28-point underdog last year in Happy Valley, losing by only 16, I'm taking the generous points with the home underdog.