Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION LA Galaxy +0.25 (-126)

LA Galaxy vs Seattle
Leagues Cup, Wednesday, 10:45pm ET

Play: LA Galaxy +0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -126
Line Parameter: Line good to -140, otherwise take LA Galaxy PK at plus money

Second semi-final of the, now all-American, Leagues Cup, between the LA Galaxy and the Seattle Sounders, who will know the winner of the other semi-final between Inter Miami and Orlando.

The LA Galaxy are +182 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +270 and Seattle are +135 favourites on the road, with the Asian Spread set at 0.25 and the Asian Total set at 2.75 Goals. The match is played at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, home of the LA Galaxy.

The LA Galaxy have done a great job in this Leagues Cup, and we already knew that, as they are doing nothing in the MLS this season, can't make the playoffs and their entire focus is on winning the Leagues Cup in order to salvage a really bad season. Now on a 5-0 run to the Over 2.5 Goals, and also 10-1 in L/11 in all competitions. Also, 5 of those matches went to at least the Over 3.5 Goals, which is only natural, as the Galaxy have a bad defense with just 3 clean sheets in that span, but their offense is looking really good, failing to score once in that span, interestingly enough, in a 4-0 loss to Seattle in this venue. So there's also the revenge game narrative here. 

Seattle also rotated their squad in the weekend match against Kansas, blasting them by 5-2 courtesy of a hattrick by Danny Musovski, who by the way, is suspended for this match, in fact he is suspended for the rest of the tournament after getting a red card in the quarter-final vs Puebla. Since they protested about the prize money from the Club World Cup back in early June, and the scolding they got from their owner, Seattle have been playing...differently. In 15 matches since then, Seattle have seen SEVEN red cards. They've taken 1-2 even 3 goal leads in some matches and ended up not winning. They overturned results in which they conceded the first goal but ended up drawing or winning those matches.

There seems to be some bad blood brewing in their locker room between the players and the owner, who by the way did ZERO moves in the transfer window despite having so many injured players and so many holes in their roster. Jordan Morris, Ryan Kent, Albert Rusnak, even Paul Arriola and Joao Paulo, most of whom are considered as starters, and most of them being forwards, have been injured, and I'm adding the suspended Musovski to that list. There is absolutely NO WAY this Seattle board saw that squad and said, yeah we're OK, we don't need to add anyone.

The LA Galaxy surely have a lot more reasons to fight hard for at least a spot in the Final and  I think that Seattle could potentially have a problem in the scoring department with all those injuries/suspensions. They still have talent, and the Galaxy have a pretty soft defense, but the Galaxy also have the home advantage. I like the Galaxy here. 

Take 2% on the LA Galaxy +0.25 (-126), line good to -140, otherwise take LA Galaxy PK at plus money. 

NOTE: Full breakdown in the attached video.