Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: New York Mets Total Under 4.5 (-120) T Bradley (RHP), C Holmes (RHP) Must Start

Taj Bradley looks to rebound after a rough 4 IP, 7 ER outing in his last turn, but underlying metrics suggest better days ahead. While his ERA over the past 30 days sits at 5.14, both his xFIP (3.39) and SIERA (3.40) indicate he’s been victimized by poor sequencing and is due for positive regression. Bradley’s ground-ball heavy arsenal will challenge a Mets lineup that leans on the long ball, helping suppress hard-contact damage.

On the other side, New York starter Clay Holmes has been solid, but the Mets’ offense has sputtered around him. In Holmes’s last five starts, New York has managed support him with just 2.2 runs per game, a mark that makes chasing a high team total a tough proposition. The combination of Bradley’s expected bounce-back and the Mets’ anemic run support caps their scoring ceiling.

To compound matters for New York, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks among the elite over the last 30 days with a 2.65 ERA and an 81.8 percent LOB rate, ready to lock down any late rallies. With Bradley likely to settle in and hand the ball off to that shutdown relief corps, the under on the Mets’ team total of 4.5 runs is the smart play.

THE PLAY: Dallas Wings Total Over 82.0 (-110)

The Dallas Wings finally got Paige Bueckers back last outing, and she delivered a 35-point explosion on 13-of-19 shooting, instantly lifting Dallas’ offensive efficiency and tempo. With Bueckers steering the attack, the Wings rank fourth in the WNBA in fast-break points and top in second-chance scoring—two areas that thrive on pace and extra possessions. Despite a six-game skid, their offense flashes potential when she’s on the floor.

The Las Vegas Aces will be notably shorthanded, as A’ja Wilson is listed unlikely to play. Without Wilson, Las Vegas’ defensive rating balloons from 97.5 when on the court vs 120.9 when off the court, and their rebounding rate dips from 47.4% to just 40.7% when she off the court. Moreover, the Wings excel inside—third in mid-range frequency and second in paint frequency—against an Aces unit that ranks 2nd to last in defending both zones.

Given Dallas’ uptick in pace and offensive efficiency with Bueckers and the Aces’ interior vulnerabilities without Wilson, the over on the Wings’ team total is the way to go. Take the Wings to top 82 points.