Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Valencia +101

2% Valencia (8:00 AM ET): Two mid-table sides heading in opposite directions here in La Liga as Valencia is unbeaten in nine consecutive matches while Getafe have dropped four in a row. Now there’s an argument to be made that we’re catching Valencia at/near the top of the market, however the motivation for Los Che far outweighs that in my opinion. Three more points on Saturday and we could be talking European qualification for Valencia, or at the very least a top half finish, something few would have imagined when the club was near the relegation zone at the midpoint of the domestic season. 

As for Getafe, they’ve got a significantly better YTD goal difference than Valencia, but being three points back at this stage makes European qualification highly unlikely. (The xGD between these two sides is a lot closer). Since they’re also seven points clear of the relegation zone, Getafe really have little to play for down these last four matches, and thus I can see them stumbling down the stretch. Quite frankly, that stumble is already apparent with the four consecutive losses, two of which came against teams that were freshly promoted this season (Espanyol, Las Palmas). Each of the last three losses have been by the same scoreline (1-0) so not much of an attack right now for Getafe, who - incredibly - have failed to top 1.0 xG in six of the last seven away matches! The exception came against last place Real Valladolid. 

Meanwhile, Valencia found the back of the net three times in last week’s win over Las Palmas. The previous seven matches all saw them concede 1 goal or fewer. So we are talking about a very in-form side at the moment. In fact, the only other La Liga side w/o a loss in the L5 matches is Barcelona. While it ended up being a 1-1 draw in the reverse (back in October), Getafe’s lone goal came on a penalty in the 90th minute. Should also be pointed out Getafe will have three players suspended for this match as well including Mauro Arambarri, whose nine goals not only lead the club, but are more than double anyone else. 2% Valencia (Play to -120) 

THE PLAY: Indiana Pacers +3.5 (-110)

2% Indiana (7:30 ET): While I fully understand the “must-win” nature of tonight’s Game 3 for the Cavaliers, I must put aside that - and my heart (as a native Clevelander) and talk about the reality of this being a VERY banged up basketball team. While this morning’s line movement would seem to indicate that one (or all) of Darius Garland, DeAndre Hunter and Evan Mobley may return (all missed Game 2), their individual and/or collective effectiveness can certainly be called into question. Furthermore, the Cavs’ best player (Donovan Mitchell) is also operating at less than 100 percent right now. 

Now it does appear as if I “jumped the gun” a bit here in playing the Pacers, as the number has continued to go up, after it was reported that Garland, Hunter and Mobley all participated in this morning’s shootaround. Nevertheless, I still feel quite comfortable at the number I got, considering Game 2 closed with Cleveland -6 and they were at home. Now the three aforementioned players were all absent, but even with them, I was more in line with the opening number for Game 3. Indiana is 5-1 SU vs. Cleveland this season, four of those wins coming on the road. This is a Pacers team that is 32-11 SU at home this season, after winning all three first round games here vs. Milwaukee. 

The fact is, despite how dominant Cleveland looked throughout the regular season and in the first round vs. a bad Miami team, there’s not a ton separating them from Indiana right now. Since January 1st, the teams have nearly identical SU records. The Cavs’ net efficiency has remained higher, but not to the degree that would justify them being a road favorite of this size. Even at home, after holding the Pacers to just 15 points in the first quarter, the Cavs could not hold on in Game 2. (That was considered “must win” as well). Indiana scored 34 or more points each of the final three quarters against a clearly gassed defense. They’ve shot better than 50% each of the first two games. On the road, I don’t necessarily anticipate Cleveland’s role players to step up. The Cavs got 47 from Mitchell last game, so it’s not like we should expect more production from him tonight. 2% Indiana (Play to +3)