Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Indiana Pacers +3.5 (-110)

2% Indiana (7:30 ET): While I fully understand the “must-win” nature of tonight’s Game 3 for the Cavaliers, I must put aside that - and my heart (as a native Clevelander) and talk about the reality of this being a VERY banged up basketball team. While this morning’s line movement would seem to indicate that one (or all) of Darius Garland, DeAndre Hunter and Evan Mobley may return (all missed Game 2), their individual and/or collective effectiveness can certainly be called into question. Furthermore, the Cavs’ best player (Donovan Mitchell) is also operating at less than 100 percent right now. 

Now it does appear as if I “jumped the gun” a bit here in playing the Pacers, as the number has continued to go up, after it was reported that Garland, Hunter and Mobley all participated in this morning’s shootaround. Nevertheless, I still feel quite comfortable at the number I got, considering Game 2 closed with Cleveland -6 and they were at home. Now the three aforementioned players were all absent, but even with them, I was more in line with the opening number for Game 3. Indiana is 5-1 SU vs. Cleveland this season, four of those wins coming on the road. This is a Pacers team that is 32-11 SU at home this season, after winning all three first round games here vs. Milwaukee. 

The fact is, despite how dominant Cleveland looked throughout the regular season and in the first round vs. a bad Miami team, there’s not a ton separating them from Indiana right now. Since January 1st, the teams have nearly identical SU records. The Cavs’ net efficiency has remained higher, but not to the degree that would justify them being a road favorite of this size. Even at home, after holding the Pacers to just 15 points in the first quarter, the Cavs could not hold on in Game 2. (That was considered “must win” as well). Indiana scored 34 or more points each of the final three quarters against a clearly gassed defense. They’ve shot better than 50% each of the first two games. On the road, I don’t necessarily anticipate Cleveland’s role players to step up. The Cavs got 47 from Mitchell last game, so it’s not like we should expect more production from him tonight. 2% Indiana (Play to +3)