Adam Trigger
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Last updated Sep 28, 9:10 AM EDT
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Free Picks
THE PLAY: Series Atlanta Braves -125 Action
I think this is badly mispriced and should be in the -150/-160 range.
I will walk you through how I think this series plays out and FWIW if the Braves win as a -195 favorite with Chris Sale on the mound this afternoon their series odds will skyrocket.
Full analysis to follow...
I just don't think the Phillies are in position to go on the road and win two games in three days right now. Luis Arraez is off the roster for this round and that's notable because he's been one of the best hitters on the team since they traded for him. The Arraez acquisition was a boost to a Phillies lineup that's been mediocre outside of Schwarber/Harper all season and now the Phillies go into the biggest games of their season without him.
The bigger issue here for the Phillies is pitching since that's the reason they were able to get to the playoffs in the first place. It's somewhat known the Phillies have a bad lineup (92 wRC+ is 28th out of 30 MLB teams) but it hasn't mattered most of the season because of the Phillies elite pitching staff. Jesus Luzardo is battling a shoulder injury so instead of being a true starter here he's likely just an opener in front of Andrew Painter. The Phillies still get Christopher Sanchez in Game 2 but his numbers have been far worse on the road than at home this year. Zack Wheeler probably gets the ball in Game 3 but he would be pitching on short rest. What this all means is the Phillies are going to need big time bullpen innings from guys not named Jhoan Duran and that's a problem because the Phillies don't have a single other reliever that can be trusted in a big spot in a road playoff game.
If Chris Sale gets the job done in Game 1 and the Braves win I think they have the Phillies dead to rights. Even if the Phillies were able to steal Game 1 I still like my chances with Tyler Mahle in Game 2 and it's likely a game I will be straight as well. I really like the Braves in this series and the best way I can find to make sure we get paid on that opinion is to make a series bet.
Play on Braves (TO WIN THE SERIES) -125 for 3% (or 3 units)
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Consultant Bio
Adam has been a Professional Sports Handicapper for the past decade since founding Top Flight Sports with one of his Siena College roommates back in 2013. Adam got his start in the handicapping industry in 2008 writing analysis for another well-known website and set out to sell picks that always contain a full breakdown of WHY a bet is being made. In the past decade, Adam has placed in Circa Millions as well as made it to the Top 50 in Circa Survivor multiple times. Adam values transparency and is considered by many to be one of the top football (NCAA and NFL), baseball (MLB, KBO, AAA), and College Basketball handicappers in the world.
Adam is ultra-selective with the picks he puts out and lives by the "less is more" mantra. Adam believes the biggest advantage you have as the bettor is the ability to be selective and uses regression analysis to target numbers that the books have shaded to gain an edge. Adam is willing to "buck the trend" and focuses on situational betting where he feels like he's uncovered an edge that hasn't been priced into a number. Adam is out there attending more games in person than any other handicapper and has amassed a network of contacts that has become second to none in the industry.
You can only find Adam on WagerTalk, this is his only gig and the guarantee he can provide is he's out there grinding 365 days a year. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamTriggerWT and if you shoot him a DM he will almost always respond!
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