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2025/26 NFL: 16-9-1 (64%) +19.94 UNITS
Last updated Nov 26, 8:17 PM EST
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THE PLAY: Arkansas +3.5 (-115)
Aside from a rogue +4 (-115) right at open this never really hit 4 and probably won't. Have tried to talk myself out of doing this but can't. I really like this Arkansas team and I think they pick up a huge home win here.
I know on Full Court Press I said Louisville would have to shoot it poorly to lose this game but I don't think we are only counting on that. I think Arkansas has a path to victory here even if Louisville is knocking down jump shots.
I know I rode the fence a little bit on FCP on this game this morning but I was trying to be objective with my panelists. If Louisville does shoot it poorly, like the Cardinals did in their only game away from home this season against what we now know to be a pretty bad Cincinnati team, they will lose this game. It's also worth noting that game was not at 5/3 and THIS game will be in one of the toughest environments Louisville will experience all season.
Arkansas isn't as crisp as Louisville offensively but the Razorbacks have a ton of upside and I don't think Arkansas is that far off. Louisville is one of the elite rebounding teams in the country but Arkansas isn't incapable in that department either so I think it comes down to how much you are willing to weight home court here.
Fayetteville is one of the few places where over the years home court has really mattered (just go look at Arkansas home/road splits for the past decade or so) and this is the first big home game of the year for the Razorbacks. As I've said a couple of times I was more impressed with Arkansas than Michigan State in the game I got to attend in East Lansing and since then Michigan State has climbed my power rankings while Arkansas had won every game since until falling just short in a competitive cover against Duke.
On top of all of that we are getting 3 points to work with in a game that could be decided on the final play.
If you want to check out the panel breakdown it's the opener on today's Full Court Press show.
Play on Arkansas +3.5 (-115) for 3% (or 3 units)
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Consultant Bio
Adam has been a Professional Sports Handicapper for the past decade since founding Top Flight Sports with one of his Siena College roommates back in 2013. Adam got his start in the handicapping industry in 2008 writing analysis for another well-known website and set out to sell picks that always contain a full breakdown of WHY a bet is being made. In the past decade, Adam has placed in Circa Millions as well as made it to the Top 50 in Circa Survivor multiple times. Adam values transparency and is considered by many to be one of the top football (NCAA and NFL), baseball (MLB, KBO, AAA), and College Basketball handicappers in the world.
Adam is ultra-selective with the picks he puts out and lives by the "less is more" mantra. Adam believes the biggest advantage you have as the bettor is the ability to be selective and uses regression analysis to target numbers that the books have shaded to gain an edge. Adam is willing to "buck the trend" and focuses on situational betting where he feels like he's uncovered an edge that hasn't been priced into a number. Adam is out there attending more games in person than any other handicapper and has amassed a network of contacts that has become second to none in the industry.
You can only find Adam on WagerTalk, this is his only gig and the guarantee he can provide is he's out there grinding 365 days a year. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamTriggerWT and if you shoot him a DM he will almost always respond!
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