The Prez

THE PLAY: New York Jets +3.5 (-108)

JETS +3.5

I know Green Bay is the more highly regarded team, but I really like the Jets getting +3.5 at home against the Packers.

The first thing I love about this number is the 3.5. If this game comes down to one possession, the Jets have a lot of ways to cover. A 27-24 Packers win, a 24-21 Packers win or even a Jets outright victory all cash this ticket.

Green Bay is laying 3.5 despite going just 6-11 against the spread last season, including only 2-6 ATS when favored by 3.5 points or more. That's a pretty important historical warning sign when we're being asked to lay more than a field goal with the Packers.

The Jets also come into this game with confidence after beating Tennessee 23-10 in Week 1. They controlled the game defensively and did enough offensively to win comfortably. Meanwhile, Green Bay's Week 1 performance wasn't enough to justify treating them as a team that should automatically be laying more than a field goal on the road.

And this is a home game for New York. That's significant when we're taking +3.5. The Jets don't need to dominate Green Bay — they need to stay competitive for four quarters, and playing at home gives them a better environment to do exactly that.

I also don't think we should overlook the way the Jets' defense performed in Week 1. They held Tennessee to just 10 points, and if they can create another game where the opposing offense has to consistently earn every yard, that makes +3.5 extremely valuable.

There is one legitimate concern: New York will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is expected to miss at least one week after suffering a groin injury. Rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. is also expected to miss time.

But at +3.5, I don't need the Jets to be the better team overall. I need them to make this a competitive game, and I believe they're capable of doing that.

MY PLAY: JETS +3.5.

THE PLAY: Total Over 54.5 (-107)

LIONS-BILLS OVER 54.5

Yes, 54 is a HUGE number. I understand why this total is intimidating. But I’m willing to lay it with the Over because I believe both offenses are capable of producing explosive plays all night, and there are multiple ways this game can get into the high 50s.

Both teams showed in Week 1 that they can score in bunches. Buffalo put up 36 points against Houston, while Detroit scored 31 points against New Orleans. Even more importantly, both teams needed late-game drives to win, showing that neither offense is afraid to keep attacking when the game is on the line.

The biggest reason I like the Over is Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense continues to be built around Allen's ability to create explosive plays with both his arm and his legs. The Bills also have strong continuity on offense, while Joe Brady remains heavily involved in the offensive system.

Detroit is also built to keep scoring. Jared Goff has a group of playmakers capable of moving the football, and Jahmyr Gibbs showed he can handle a massive workload after taking 29 carries in Week 1. Detroit's offense also has Amon-Ra St. Brown, giving Goff a reliable weapon when the Lions need to answer a score.

And here's the key with a number this high: I don't necessarily need both teams to score 30. A 31-24 game gets us to 55. A 34-23 game gets us to 57. A 35-24 game gets us to 59. There are plenty of realistic scoring combinations that get this Over without requiring a complete shootout.

I also expect the game environment to help. This is Buffalo's first regular-season game in the new Highmark Stadium, and it's a nationally televised Thursday night matchup. The Bills will have an enormous home atmosphere, while Detroit comes in after winning a dramatic overtime game in Week 1. Both teams are 1-0, and neither has any reason to play conservatively if this game turns into a shootout.

There are defensive concerns on both sides as well. Buffalo is transitioning to a new 3-4 defensive system under Jim Leonhard, while Detroit's secondary and offensive line are dealing with injury questions heading into the short week. Detroit's Christian Mahogany remains doubtful, and Blake Miller and D.J. Reed are also dealing with injuries.

The current market has actually moved into the 54–54.5 range, which tells you this is already being priced as an extremely high-scoring matchup.

**Yes, 54 is a high number. But I believe this is one of those games where the offenses are good enough to make the number irrelevant. Give me explosive plays, aggressive play-calling and two quarterbacks capable of creating points late.

MY PLAY: LIONS-BILLS OVER 54.5

Note: Plus, if you follow me for years, you know I like betting the highest total over and the lowest total under.