The Prez

THE PLAY: Carolina Panthers -2.5 (-110)

CAROLINA -2.5 VS. ATLANTA

I’m backing the Carolina Panthers -2.5 against the Atlanta Falcons, and there are several reasons I like this matchup.

First, Carolina’s offense showed tremendous explosiveness in Week 1. Despite the 59-37 loss to Chicago, the Panthers moved the football extremely well, averaging 7.7 yards per play, fourth-best in the NFL after Week 1. They also had 29% of their offensive plays go for at least 10 yards, which ranked second in the league.

The biggest matchup advantage could be Bryce Young against Atlanta’s secondary. Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns in Carolina’s overtime win over Atlanta last season, and the Panthers swept both meetings with the Falcons last year.

On the other side, Atlanta enters this game with a major question mark at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa has been dealing with an oblique injury, while Cooper Rush started the opener and threw two interceptions in Atlanta’s 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Michael Penix Jr. is also working his way back from last season’s ACL injury.

That uncertainty is important when you're laying only 2.5 points. Atlanta averaged just 13 points in Week 1 and managed only 17.8 yards per possession, the lowest figure in the league.

I also like Carolina's ability to create explosive plays through the passing game. If Young gets the same kind of opportunities he had against Atlanta last season, Carolina has enough offensive firepower to put pressure on the Falcons throughout the afternoon.

This is also a much different situation from laying a big number. Carolina only needs to win by a field goal, and we're getting the key number of 2.5 rather than 3.

Atlanta is at home, so I expect the Falcons to compete, but the quarterback uncertainty and Carolina's offensive upside make the Panthers the side I'm comfortable laying the points with.

My play: CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5.

THE PLAY: New York Jets +3.5 (-108)

JETS +3.5

I know Green Bay is the more highly regarded team, but I really like the Jets getting +3.5 at home against the Packers.

The first thing I love about this number is the 3.5. If this game comes down to one possession, the Jets have a lot of ways to cover. A 27-24 Packers win, a 24-21 Packers win or even a Jets outright victory all cash this ticket.

Green Bay is laying 3.5 despite going just 6-11 against the spread last season, including only 2-6 ATS when favored by 3.5 points or more. That's a pretty important historical warning sign when we're being asked to lay more than a field goal with the Packers.

The Jets also come into this game with confidence after beating Tennessee 23-10 in Week 1. They controlled the game defensively and did enough offensively to win comfortably. Meanwhile, Green Bay's Week 1 performance wasn't enough to justify treating them as a team that should automatically be laying more than a field goal on the road.

And this is a home game for New York. That's significant when we're taking +3.5. The Jets don't need to dominate Green Bay — they need to stay competitive for four quarters, and playing at home gives them a better environment to do exactly that.

I also don't think we should overlook the way the Jets' defense performed in Week 1. They held Tennessee to just 10 points, and if they can create another game where the opposing offense has to consistently earn every yard, that makes +3.5 extremely valuable.

There is one legitimate concern: New York will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is expected to miss at least one week after suffering a groin injury. Rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. is also expected to miss time.

But at +3.5, I don't need the Jets to be the better team overall. I need them to make this a competitive game, and I believe they're capable of doing that.

MY PLAY: JETS +3.5.