Nick Borrman

THE PLAY: Genoa +1.0 (+100)

Italy Serie A

(201313) Genoa at (201314) AS Roma

Yes, a must-win match for Roma to keep their slimming hopes of Champions League for next season alive while Genoa have nothing to play for.  But Roma is tired as the brutal schedule between Serie A and Europa League seems to have caught up to them.  Not only has there been a lot of games, but the quality of competition has also been extremely difficult as they have faced Napoli, Juventus, Atalanta, and Leverkusen twice, where they were knocked out of the Europa League in the semifinals.  Roma went winless over those five matches, plus an additional loss to Bologna makes it just one win in their last seven matches.  

Since De Rossi took over for Mourinho back in January, the team seemed to have been transformed from a defensive minded club, to one that likes to push the tempo and win games with their offense.  

The results quickly came as the team lost just two of their next 18 matches as they were both quickly climbing the Serie A table as well as progressing deeper into the Europa tournament.  But, if you look a little closer at the results, they were rarely winning matches by multiple goals. 

In now 25 matches since the manager change, Roma lost just five times, but they have only covered the -1.0 handicap on four occasions, and Genoa is a very tough team to not only beat, but beat by multiple goals.

In fact, Genoa has lost by more than one goal just three times all season and have only done so one time over their last 28.  During this second half of the season, they have been getting results often as they have just four losses in their last 21 matches.

Over their last three, Genoa won 3-0 over Cagliari, drew 3-3 vs Milan, and most recently beat Sassuolo 2-1.  They are scoring goals, playing with confidence, and with truly nothing on the line, appear to be having quite a bit of fun out there.

All the pressure is on Roma in this match to deliver a win, but with their current form and tired legs facing this carefree confident Genoa side, I would even go as far as saying a Genoa win here would not be surprising.

TAKE GENOA +1.0

Line Parameter: Play good to -125, reduce to -140

THE PLAY: Total OVER 2.5 (+110)

Italy Serie A

(201305) AC Milan at (201306) Torino

Torino is obviously not an Over team with their league-low 10-26 Over-Under record vs 2.5 goals, but this match I see as a good opportunity, and price, to finish Over the total and it really has nothing to do with Torino.

AC Milan’s season essentially ended with back-to-back matches against Roma, where they were knocked out of the Europa semifinal, then losing to Inter in their very next match to officially crown their cross-city rivals with the Scudetto.  After that they faced Juventus, and you could clearly see a deflated team with no energy as they played out a pedestrian 0-0 draw.

However, Milan has now scored eight goals over their last two matches as time has passed, the wounds of disappointment, although maybe not healed, seem to have been moved on from, as the team is playing carefree while also looking like they are having a lot of fun.  They are also skipping maximum effort defensively as they have allowed four goals to the combination of Genoa and Cagliari.

With the season over, the Euros and Copa America looming, nobody is trying to get hurt, and you can see that as the challenges of the ball that we have seen all season have magically disappeared.  That alone has led to their open matches, and I suspect we will see exactly that here, despite facing Torino who love the 0-0 draw.

With a win last week, Torino has an outside shot at climbing the table into a Conference League birth.  Unlike Napoli, that would be a huge accomplishment for the club, and with that in mind, I do expect a strong effort from Torino.  The thing is, they need to win to realistically have a chance and they are not going to beat Milan 1-0.

Torino may try their damnedest to keep this tight, but assuming Milan do score, that will force Torino’s hand into playing on the front foot and Milan certainly won’t look to slow anything down.

TAKE OVER 2.5 GOALS

Line Parameter: Play good to -110

THE PLAY: Fiorentina +0.0 (-130)

Italy Serie A

(201281) Napoli at (201282) Fiorentina

I thought we would see a better performance from Napoli in what was basically a must-win match for them to qualify for Europa League next season.  Now they have fallen down a peg and this is a must-win match for them again, but now to only keep their hopes alive for the Conference League.  However, I’m not so sure that matters to them.

Playing in the Conference League next season only complicates their hopes of getting back to Champions League for the following season.  Juventus is a perfect example of that this season.  No European commitments and they were able to finish back in the Top-4, plus have a chance at hardware with the Coppa Italia final coming up.  That should be Napoli’s goal for next season.

Despite the unknown, that being Napoli’s affinity to push for these last two matches, what is known is how poor they have been this season.  They have just one win over their last ten matches which includes teams they should be beating like Frosinone, Empoli and Udinese.  Additionally, they have just two wins over their last 13 away matches in all competitions.  

Fiorentina meanwhile has been a very good side at home with just four losses in 26 matches in all competitions.  They are on the brink of a trophy as they are set to play in the Europa Conference League final against Olympiacos in two weeks and this is a great match for them to continue to stay in game shape until then while likely rotating next weekend.

Plus, they too are fighting for their European qualification lives here as a loss to Napoli will see them fall outside of the Conference League qualification spot behind Napoli.  Then if all goes wrong and they fail to beat Olympiacos, they lose both paths to qualify.  This is an important match for them to win.

Fiorentina is in much better form and the side that may place more importance on this match.  I like them to win with the protection against the draw.

TAKE FIORENTINA +0 (Draw No Bet)

Line Parameter: Play good to -140, reduce to -150