Italy Serie A

(201205) Atalanta at (201206) Salernitana

Theoritically, Atalanta is in a tough of a spot here playing this Serie A match sandwiched between two Legs of a Europa League semifinal.  However, you could not ask for a better opponent in this situation than Salernitana.

Salernitana has officially been relegated and oddsmakers aren’t expecting much of an effort from them the rest of the way, or at least not in this match.  I jotted down the opening handicap when it was released roughly two weeks in advance and Atalanta opened as -1.0 favorites.  After last weekend’s results, the number moved quickly to -1.5.  That’s a big jump, and of course we missed the best of the number, but there is a reason the shift was that big, that quickly.

Salernitana’s defense has simply been laughable this season conceding a ridiculous 73 goals including allowing at least two goals in 25 of 34 matches.  Over just their last 16 matches, they have allowed at least two goals 13 times, and they have conceded at least three in six of their last 11.

To their credit, they have scored in 11 of 17 home matches this season including against Roma, Juventus, Milan, Bologna and Lazio, so they are more than capable of finding the back of the net at least once here, but even if they don’t Atalanta has the firepower to score three times themselves.

While Atalanta certainly have their eyes on Leg 2 against Marseille, they are desperate to win this match as they have a chance to tie Roma on points for the final Champions League qualification spot, before those two meet H2H next weekend.  I expect them to take advantage of their opponent here and grab all three points, likely in a higher scoring game.

PARLAY ATALANTA ML + OVER 2.5 GOALS

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