UEFA Champions League

(224209) Borussia Dortmund at (224210) Paris St Germain

I like PSG to find a way to overturn this tie and advance to the UCL final as Dortmund away from home is just not a trustworthy side. 

Just last round, Dortmund lost 1-2 at Atletico in though in that matchup it was Leg 1, but they also failed to win against PSV on the road in the round of 16, drawing 1-1, also in Leg 1, before advancing 2-0 at home.  

Additionally, these teams met in the group stage and PSG won 2-0 at home on MatchDay 1 where the French side generated 2.4 xG while Dortmund created only 0.7 according to FBref.com. Of course, in the reverse leg in Germany, the match finished 1-1 and played out very similarly to last week’s 1-0 Dortmund win.  PSG can overturn this tie and I’m sure are confident that they will.

Mbappe has been lethal in the Champions League this season with eight goals in 11 matches.  He managed just one shot on target in Leg 1 but had four shots on target in Leg 2 against Barcelona in the previous round while earning three shots on target in Leg 2 against Sociedad before that.  He seems to play his best when the pressure is the highest.  

Dortmund away from home just in Bundesliga play this year sit 5th in the table with 22 xP in 16 matches.  While on the surface all looks OK with just 18 goals conceded, second fewest in the league, they have allowed over 28.8 xGA, which ranks 7th in the Bundesliga, and considering PSG is one of the best at scoring their chances, they have converted 76 goals on 67.0 xG, a +9.0 margin in actual goals vs expected goals which is the highest in all of the Big 5 Leagues.  Simply put, PSG finish their chances better than any other team in Europe.

They were unable to do so in Leg 1 as they were held scoreless on 1.7 xG, but don’t expect that to happen in Leg 2.

TAKE PSG TO ADVANCE 

Line Parameter: 3% to -170, otherwise play -1.0 to -150.  2.5% at -1.25 to -125, 2% -1.25 to -140