La Liga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets February 2-4

Predictions and Picks for La Liga Matches February 2-4

WagerTalk La Liga handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his February 2-4 La Liga predictions and betting preview around key La Liga matches including Real Sociedad at Girona and Atletico Madrid at Real Madrid. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his La Liga betting tips now!

Mallorca at Athletic Bilbao | Friday February 2 | 3:00pm ET

Mallorca +610 | Athletic Bilbao -190 | Draw +305

Despite a tremendous run in this year’s Copa del Rey as they prepare to face Real Sociedad in next week’s first-leg semi-final matchup, in league action in particular, it’s been a much different story for Mallorca who have looked a lot less impressive of late.

Los Piratas have now gone winless in four straight games in LaLiga after coming off yet another disappointing loss at the weekend against Real Betis, and they’re in real danger of getting sucked into the relegation zone as a result if they don’t soon find a way to turn things around, that heroic cup run notwithstanding.

For Bilbao, a recent four-game winning run had seen them challenge for the Champions League spots in LaLiga, but back-to-back poor results against Valencia and Cadiz respectively have seen them dip at just the wrong time, and they’ll need to rebound fast if they’re to keep the pressure on for those top four spots.

This is an interesting game on the surface as Athletic Bilbao are also in action in next week’s Copa del Rey semi-finals facing Atletico Madrid, so both teams will no doubt be focused on those clashes, but can ill afford to take their eyes off the ball ahead of Friday’s league meeting either.

That said, Athletic Bilbao have been almost impervious at home of late, winning five straight games in the league and dumping Barcelona out of the Copa del Rey here last week also.

That is in stark contrast to Mallorca’s road form which has seen them win just one game away from home all season, so even at this current high line, it’d be Athletic Bilbao or pass on Friday.

La Liga Prediction: Athletic Bilbao ML (-190)

Real Sociedad at Girona | Saturday February 3 | 3:00pm ET

Real Sociedad +235 | Girona +115 | Draw +245

Yet another team involved in Copa del Rey action next week is the aforementioned Real Sociedad who play Mallorca on Tuesday, a game that will likely mean all the more to Sociedad given their patchy form in the league over the last couple of months.

The Royals have won just once in the league across any of their last six starts, but have at least tended to fare better away from home this season, losing just once across any of their last seven starts on the road.

For Girona, it’s been an outstanding season overall, currently sitting top of the table heading into the month of February (this article will be out before Real Madrid’s clash against Getafe on Thursday), but with a 5-1 dismantling of Sevilla in their last home game, plus 12 goals scored across their last three home games combined as well, the Gironistes are not showing any signs of slowing down.

However, Girona has been vastly outperforming their data this season by an absolutely huge margin, and that simply can’t last as anyone who follows sports betting knows regression is the great equalizer.

Girona’s overall points tally in the league this year is 55 points, yet their xPTS (expected points) tally is only 36.40, a +18.60 points differential, by far the biggest over-performance out of any team in any of the big five European leagues this season.

That simply can’t last long-term and we’ll be on the fade Girona train for the majority of the rest of the season as a result. That said, that cup game for Real Sociedad next week does give us some pause for concern here, but nonetheless, it’s Real Sociedad catching the headstart or pass on Saturday against Girona.

La Liga Prediction: Real Sociedad +0.25 (-105)

Atletico Madrid at Real Madrid | Sunday February 4 | 3:00pm ET

Atletico Madrid +350 | Real Madrid -135 | Draw +300

El Derbi Madrileno, one of Europe’s biggest football rivalries, kicks off on Sunday over at the Bernabeu, with Madrid looking to wrestle control of the league away from Girona while Atletico looks to make up some lost ground on the top two also.

Atletico Madrid put Real Madrid out of the Copa del Rey two weeks ago, with a semi-final berth secured for next week’s matchups as a result, but that’s a distraction they likely don’t need here if they’re going to put a major charge on for the rest of the season and catch the top two across the back half.

For Real Madrid, they’ve been exceptional this season, with that loss against Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey two weeks ago representing their only loss across any competition going all the way back to September, a run of just one loss in 24 games, albeit that last loss in September also came against this same Atletico Madrid side in the reverse fixture.

This has always been an incredibly tight fixture with four of their last five meetings ending in an outright draw after 90 minutes, along with each of their last three on Real Madrid’s home ground as well.

That said, when we focus on just league form in particular between these two, bar their last draw here in February of last year, Real Madrid had won each of their three previous league meetings at the Bernabeu, including shutting out Atletico in each of those matchups as well.

With the cup game potentially being another distraction for Atletico ahead of this one, we’re backing the home side to come out on top with all three points on Sunday.

La Liga Prediction: Real Madrid ML (-135)