Chelsea vs Liverpool Picks, Predictions and Odds Jan 2
Chelsea vs Liverpool Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Sunday’s Chelsea vs Liverpool showdown in the Premier League. Both teams dropped points in midweek matches and are in danger of falling deeper behind Manchester City at the top of the EPL table.
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| Sun, Jan 2 | Premier League Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Chelsea: | +215 |
| Liverpool: | +125 |
| Draw: | +250 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals |
| Game Time: | 11:30am ET / 8:30am PT at Stamford Bridge |
Chelsea vs Liverpool Analysis
Chelsea settled for a 1-1 home draw vs Brighton after jumping out to a 1-0 first half lead before squandering the equalizer in the first minute of stoppage time (90+1’). The fact that it was low scoring was not much of a surprise considering Chelsea allowed just 0.95 xGA per game coming into that match while Brighton had played to seven straight games under 2.5 goals.
But the draw caught many people by surprise as most people expected a straight forward Chelsea win, however, that result was more than deserving considering xG showed a final tally of Chelsea 0.76 – 0.79 Brighton. With that result, Chelsea have now failed to beat Brighton in three of the last four meetings.
Liverpool however, probably deserved better than their 0-1 loss at Leicester on Tuesday. A missed penalty in the first half by Salah followed by what felt like chance after chance all game that they simply could not convert. xG numbers showed the same with a final tally of Leicester 0.62 – 2.73 Liverpool although of course, all that matters is the actual result.
Premier League Scheduling
This is clearly a huge game for both teams and for the league table in general, but it’s unfortunate it is coming during the EPL festive fixtures as the game is crammed into a very busy schedule for both teams. On top of that, Liverpool is in the middle of three straight tough away games facing Leicester, Chelsea and Arsenal (the latter happens to be an Carabao Cup semifinal).
For Chelsea, their Premier League season will be determined over their next two games as they face Liverpool at home on Sunday, followed by traveling to Manchester City in the first game back from the holiday break on January 15. Of course, in between those two games they cannot rest as they face Tottenham twice in the Carabao Cup semifinals as well as an early round FA Cup match, although Tuchel will likely rotate much of the team for that game.
The good news for both teams though is they should be close to full strength as several players that have been missing due to COVID are expected back.
Chelsea vs Liverpool by the Numbers
Chelsea 42 pts | 12-6-2 | 43:14 goal differential
1.96 xG (#3) | 0.94 xGA (Tied-#2) | +1.02 xG differential (#3)
15.3 Shots for (#3) | 5.6 on Goal (#3)
9.5 Shots allowed (#3) | 3.4 on Goal (#3)
Liverpool 41 pts | 12-5-2 | 50:16 goal differential
2.62 xG (#2) | 0.94 xGA (Tied-#2) | +1.67 xG differential (#2)
19.4 Shots for (#1) | 6.7 on Goal (#2)
8.3 Shots allowed (#2) | 2.9 on Goal (#2)
Clearly both teams pack some of the best offensive firepower, not only in the Premier League, but in all of Europe. However, I would argue their defense is what sets them apart from the rest of the league and is often what earns them results. Oftentimes when you have two big name teams playing one another, defense dictates the match, and we don’t see many good chances for either team.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Series History
These teams clearly know each other well. Besides playing twice a year in the Premier League, they often meet in the domestic Cup competitions and even met in the UEFA Super Cup in 2019 when Liverpool were the reigning Champions League holders and Chelsea won the Europa League.
Since 2015, these teams have played 19 times in all competitions with only FIVE of those matches finishing Over this total. Further, of those five that finished Over, three of them landed on three goals while only TWO games finished Over three goals.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction
The importance of that last statement is that only TWO of the last 19 meetings between these teams have been full-wager losses if you were to bet Under 2.75 in every game, with three half-losses and 15 wins. At the current price of -120, betting One unit on all 19 games would equate to a +10.8u profit margin and a 47% ROI. The series trend, the tough schedule spot and simply the strength of both defenses this season all scream a cagey, low-scoring affair on Sunday.
TAKE UNDER 2.75 GOALS (-120)
As always, enjoy the weekend soccer slate and good luck with your wagers!
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