Auxerre vs Montpellier Predictions and Picks | French Ligue 1 Jan 29
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Auxerre is in high danger of relegation losing their last five games and sitting 3-4-12 overall while Montpellier sits 15th at 5-2-12 heading in. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his betting preview on this Auxerre vs Montpellier Match from Stade Abbé-Deschamps in Auxerre, France.
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Auxerre vs Montpellier Betting Odds
| Sunday, January 29 | French Ligue 1 Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Auxerre: | +150 |
| Montpellier: | +190 |
| Draw: | +235 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 9:00am ET / 6:00am PT |
Auxerre vs Montpellier Betting Analysis
French Ligue 1 action returns this weekend after a two-week absence and Sunday sees a really interesting early relegation battle taking place between Montpellier and Auxerre down in the bottom half of the table.
Montpellier come off three straight defeats over their last three league games and sit just two points above the relegation zone as of Sunday’s game, with another loss here almost certainly sinking them into that relegation dogfight.
Auxerre meanwhile are already right in the thick of it in 19th place, 2nd from bottom in the table, and are off five straight league defeats themselves over recent games. However, at home, the Burgundy club have lost just two of their last five games overall, so they’ll be hoping to grind out yet another positive result on home soil in this one.
Barely anything has separated Montpellier and Auxerre over recent head-to-head meetings, with both teams posting a W4, D3, L4 record over their last 11 head-to-head matchups.
However, inside the Stade de l’Abbe-Deschamps in Auxerre, the home team have had the better of it, winning six of their last eight meetings against Montpellier in this venue.
Montpellier Torrid At The Back
Montpellier have had to endure one of their worst starts to a Ligue 1 campaign in recent memory, with their 12 defeats over their opening 19 games the most they’ve ever lost in a single Ligue 1 campaign up to this stage of the season.
A lot of those issues for Montpellier have come from a defense that has allowed a mammoth 40 goals already this year, a club record, and who saw their #1 goalkeeper Jonas Omlin depart for Borussia Monchengladbach in Germany two weeks ago as well.
Auxerre Also Need Major Work In Defense
As bad as Montpellier have been in defense this season, Auxerre have arguably been worse, giving up one goal more than ‘La Paillade’ have this year, and got blasted for 5 goals by Toulouse in their last home game also.
The one ray of brightness for Auxerre ahead of this one however is that generally speaking, bar the Toulouse game, they’ve been better at home this season defensively than they have been on the road, allowing 0.38 xGA per game less to opponents on average in this venue than they have away from home.
Auxerre vs Montpellier Prediction
With both defenses being so poor, the natural reaction might be to look over here, however, both offenses have struggled immensely this season as well.
Auxerre ranks rock bottom of the scoring charts in Ligue 1 averaging just 0.84 GPG, and Montpellier ranking 3rd from bottom in offensive xG away from home this year as well.
Instead, we’re going to look towards taking Auxerre on the straight pick ‘em line in this one as the home team are actually about 0.72 xGD better off per game inside the Stade de l’Abbe-Deschamps this season than they have been on the road.
While Montpellier are the other way, being about 0.60 xGD worse off away from home this year, and those numbers could well be the deciding factor here. Take the home team Auxerre to win and cover at home on Sunday against Montpellier over in French Ligue 1.
Prediction: Auxerre PK (-125)
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About The Author
Soccer Betting Tips
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success.
Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.
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