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World Cup 2023 Group A Betting Preview – Rugby Picks, Predictions and Odds

New Zealand rugby player celebrates win

Rugby World Cup 2023 Betting Predictions – Group A

Rugby World Cup 2023 kicks off in France on September 8th and Rugby betting expert Kevin Dolan gives his betting preview on the various groups (pools), and where the betting value lies with respect to who will come out on top and progress through to the knockout rounds from each group.

Pool A consists of three-time winners New Zealand, three-time finalists and hosts France, Six Nations stalwarts Italy, and is rounded out by both Uruguay and Namibia for a fairly top-heavy group overall.

Below we’ll go over each team’s odds to win the group and who we expect to progress through to the eventual knockout rounds.

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Group A Countries Odds to Win Group A (DraftKings)
France -135
New Zealand +100
Italy +5000
Uruguay +100000
Namibia +100000

France (-135)

Host nation France are currently odds on favorites to top Pool A at odds of -140 currently, and it comes as little surprise either given the French boast one of the deepest talent pools in world rugby right now, so much so that boss Fabian Galthie will likely have a hard time trimming down his squad before the August 21st deadline.

The French are especially strong in the fly-half position, with Romain Ntamack, Matthieu Jalibert, and Antoine Hastoy already punching their ticket to the big dance in just a couple of months’ time.

The likes of Antoine Dupont and Gregory Alldritt also some of the best players on the planet currently that will no doubt make this French team a real headache for any team crossing their paths in this year’s tournament.

However, despite their obvious talent level, the French have been a little hit-and-miss in the group stages of previous World Cups, finishing in 2nd place in all of their last four outings and losing outright to the likes of Tonga as well.

The French definitely have the ability to top this group given the players at their disposal, especially playing at home, but they often lack focus against the smaller nations, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them struggle against Italy once again just as they did earlier this year in the Six Nations.

New Zealand (+100)

Record all-time World Cup winners New Zealand (tied with South Africa) are arguably having one of their lowest fanfares heading into a World Cup finals ever, sitting 3rd in the world rankings overall but with the limelight placed firmly on other teams, France and Ireland most notably.

The bookies however aren’t taking the bait and have New Zealand placed firmly as the 2nd favorite to lift the Webb Ellis Cup come October.

A large part of New Zealand heading into this World Cup a little under the radar is the fact Ireland went over to New Zealand last year and beat them in back-to-back test matches, with South Africa and Argentina also following suit and handing the All-Blacks’ subsequent defeats by pretty convincing margins as well.

That said, New Zealand are definitely not a team to be underestimated ahead of this tournament, and could be at their most dangerous as a result.

Ardie Savea is one of the most explosive forwards on the planet right now, putting in a red-hot performance in a 53-3 revenge blowout of Argentina last year, and he could be a major game-changer for the All-Blacks in this year’s tournament as well.

In Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith, and Sam Whitelock also, New Zealand has the experience to get the job done, and with the All-Blacks finishing top of the group in every single World Cup group stage campaign since the inaugural competition back in 1987, this is a team who definitely shouldn’t be overlooked ahead of this year’s tournament.

Italy (+5000)

At odds of +5000 just to win the group, it’s clear that the books don’t give the Italians much of a chance in this year’s competition.

That’s little surprise either considering Italy finished bottom of the group yet again in the recent Six Nations tournament earlier this year, giving up almost 30 points per game to opponents in the process, but can at least point to two solid performances against two of the best teams in world rugby right now in France and Ireland respectively.

Italy should clear the hurdles of both Uruguay and Namibia in the group given the Azzurri have been improving across recent years.

With their ruck speed continuing to get faster and the fact that they actually won half of their second halves in the Six Nations this year also (a long-standing criticism of Italy being their tendency to fade late in games). So things are definitely looking up for Kieran Crowley’s squad ahead of this tournament.

That said, while they’ll no doubt register two victories against the minnows of the group, and have one eye firmly locked on that final group game against France in Lyon on October 6th, a qualification berth looks like an extremely tall order for the Italians given the strength of both France and New Zealand right now, and unfortunately they look destined for a 3rd spot in this year’s Pool A.

Uruguay & Namibia (+100000)

While both nations sit 17th and 21st in the world respectively, that means little in rugby given it’s such a top-heavy sport, and the books are in agreement, giving both Uruguay and Namibia almost no chance of qualifying from this year’s Pool A at odds of +100000 to finish top respectively.

Namibia can point to 2015’s 16-17 loss against Georgia as probably their best-ever result in a Rugby World Cup, but by the same token they have been on the receiving end of some hellacious beatings in this competition, losing 87-0 to South Africa back in 2011, and 142-0 against Australia back in 2003 also, the largest defeat in Rugby World Cup history.

Uruguay meanwhile have enjoyed a little more success in World Cup history beating Fiji back in the 2019 World Cup, but similar to Namibia have tasted heavy defeats themselves against the larger nations, most notably losing 60-3 against England in 2015, and 45-10 against Australia in the previous World Cup also.

In Uruguay’s Santiago Arata and Namibia’s Richie Hardwick, the minnows of Group A definitely possess some world-renowned talent, but nonetheless, should struggle to win more than one game in this pool.

Rugby World Cup 2023 Group A Final Standings Prediction

  1. New Zealand
  2. France
  3. Italy
  4. Uruguay
  5. Namibia

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