Saints vs Giants Prediction, Picks and Odds

Three meetings, three Saints wins and three unders, with the games averaging just 31.7 combined points. Now this cross-division series returns for a fourth straight year, and almost everything else has changed.

Neither starting quarterback from last year’s 26-14 game remains under center, New Orleans has lost three straight, and the Giants have turned into one of the best bets in football behind Jameis Winston.

So why does this look like the perfect buy-low spot for the Saints? Our Saints vs Giants prediction breaks down Tyler Shough’s hand injury, a Giants team coming off five exhausting quarters in the rain and a spread that has flipped favorites multiple times. For more NFL predictions backed by sharp handicapping, read on.

Saints vs Giants Quick Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick: New Orleans Saints moneyline
Spread Pick: New Orleans Saints -1.5 (+100)
Total Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)
Projected Final Score: Saints 23, Giants 17

Odds and Line Movement for Saints vs Giants

This spread has been a tug-of-war. New York was a 1.5-point favorite early on October 11, New Orleans took over as the favorite on October 12, the line flipped back and forth several more times and the Saints currently sit at -1.5. The total opened at 45.5 and, aside from a brief dip to 44.5, has not moved. Track every shift before kickoff with our odds page.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
New Orleans Saints	+1.5 (-110)	Over 45.5 (-110)
New York Giants	-1.5 (-110)	Under 45.5 (-110)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
New Orleans Saints	-1.5 (+100)	Over 45.5 (-112)
New York Giants	+1.5 (-120)	Under 45.5 (-108)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	New Orleans	N.Y. Giants
10/13	-1.5 (+100)	+1.5 (-120)
10/13	-1.5 (+105)	+1.5 (-125)
10/12	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+100)
10/12	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)
10/12	+1.5 (-108)	-1.5 (-112)
10/12	-1.5 (+100)	+1.5 (-120)
10/12	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-115)
10/12	-1.5 (-108)	+1.5 (-112)
10/12	-1.5 (-102)	+1.5 (-118)
10/12	-1.5 (+102)	+1.5 (-122)
10/12	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)
10/11	+1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110)
10/11	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)
10/11	+1.5 (-118)	-1.5 (-102)
10/11	+1.5 (-122)	-1.5 (+102)
10/11	+1.5 (-118)	-1.5 (-102)
10/11	+1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110)
10/11	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)
10/11	+1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110)

The betting split has swung almost as much as the line. Early action on October 11 was 100 percent on New Orleans, then the Giants drew 100 percent of the money through the morning of October 12, pushing the Saints back to underdog status at times. By that evening, New Orleans had regained 56 to 57 percent of the money and the favorite role. The latest update shows the Giants with 51 percent of the money and 61 percent of the tickets, yet the Saints remain the 1.5-point favorite.

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
10/13	45.5 (-112)	45.5 (-108)
10/12	45.5 (-108)	45.5 (-112)
10/12	45.5 (-110)	45.5 (-110)
10/12	45.5 (-105)	45.5 (-115)
10/12	44.5 (-115)	44.5 (-105)
10/11	45.5 (-105)	45.5 (-115)
10/06	45.5 (-110)	45.5 (-110)

The total briefly dipped to 44.5 on October 12 before returning to its opening number of 45.5. The public is firmly on the over, with 79 to 84 percent of the money and 67 to 75 percent of the tickets, but the number has refused to climb past where it opened.

Saints vs Giants Key Matchups and Handicap

Saints Own This Series

This is the fourth straight season these cross-division opponents have met, and New Orleans has won all three previous matchups. Those games have been low-scoring affairs, averaging 31.7 combined points with all three finishing under the total. Last year’s meeting ended 26-14 in New Orleans, though the quarterback landscape has changed completely since then. Giants starter Jaxson Dart is currently injured, and the Saints have moved on from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough.

New York Thriving at the Window With Winston

NFL fans and pundits have plenty of opinions about Jameis Winston, but the results speak for themselves. The Giants are 3-0 against the spread since Winston entered the starting lineup, and New York is 6-1 against the number dating back to the final weeks of last season. Few teams have been more reliable for bettors over that stretch.

NO Quarterback Status Is the Key

New Orleans was riding a similar run at the betting window, but injuries and attrition have started to pile up. The Saints have dropped three straight, including a 23-13 home loss to the Vikings last week. Shough played that game with a couple of fingers taped together and was handing the ball off with his opposite hand on running plays. He was listed as a full participant in practice last week, which suggests the hand injury was more serious than it first appeared. His status is worth monitoring throughout the week, but if Shough is good to go, the setup favors New Orleans.

Giants Pass Rush Running on Fumes?

New York’s best unit is its pass rush, but that group may be running low on energy. The Giants played a full overtime period on the road last week, chasing Jayden Daniels around for five quarters, while Winston attempted 54 passes in the driving rain. That kind of physical toll can linger, especially for a defense that relies on relentless pressure up front.

New Orleans in a Buy-Low Spot

The schedule also tilts toward the Saints. New Orleans just finished a stretch of three straight home games, while the Giants are coming off a grueling road overtime battle. In terms of fatigue and attrition, this is a spot where things should even out for the Saints. A three-game losing streak has deflated their market value, and that makes this a classic buy-low opportunity if Shough is healthy.

NO vs NYG Betting Trends

New Orleans has won all three previous meetings in this series.
The last three meetings have averaged 31.7 combined points.
All three previous meetings have gone under the total.
The Giants are 3-0 ATS with Jameis Winston as the starter.
New York is 6-1 ATS dating back to the final weeks of last season.
The Saints have lost three straight games, including a 23-13 home loss to the Vikings.
The public has backed the over with 79 to 84 percent of the tracked money.
The spread has flipped favorites multiple times, with New Orleans currently at -1.5.

NO vs NYG Key Injuries and Notes

Saints QB Tyler Shough played last week with taped fingers and handed off with his opposite hand.
Shough was listed as a full participant in practice last week, so monitor his status closely.
Giants starting QB Jaxson Dart is currently injured.
Jameis Winston attempted 54 passes in driving rain during last week’s road overtime game.
The Giants’ defense chased Jayden Daniels for five quarters last week.
New Orleans has played three straight home games heading into this matchup.

Saints vs Giants ATS and Total Picks

Saints -1.5 Spread Pick

The Giants have been excellent against the spread, but this is a tough situational spot. New York is coming off a draining overtime game in poor weather, and its pass rush, the key to its success, may be running on empty. New Orleans has won every meeting in this series and is priced like a team the market has given up on after three straight losses. As long as Shough is healthy enough to grip the ball, the Saints are the side.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -1.5 (+100)

New Orleans vs New York Under Pick

Every meeting in this series has stayed under the total, with an average of just 31.7 combined points. Both teams enter with quarterback concerns, from Shough’s hand injury to Dart’s absence for New York. The public is heavily on the over, yet the total has not budged from 45.5, a sign the market is comfortable with the under. Fade the crowd and back the series history.

Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)

Saints vs Giants Best Bets

Best Bet: Under 45.5 (-108)
Moneyline: New Orleans Saints to win outright
Spread: New Orleans Saints -1.5 (+100)

The under is the strongest play, backed by a perfect series trend and a total that has held firm despite heavy public money on the over. With the spread under a field goal, the Saints moneyline and -1.5 are nearly interchangeable, and both rest on the same buy-low reasoning: a rested New Orleans team facing a worn-down Giants squad.

Final Score Prediction for Saints vs Giants

A fatigued Giants pass rush cannot generate its usual pressure, giving Shough enough time to move the ball. New York keeps it competitive behind Winston, but the Saints snap their three-game skid and extend their dominance in this series in another low-scoring game.