First Touchdown Props NFL Week 3 - Weekly Player Prop Picks

NFL First Touchdown Props Predictions and Picks for Week 3!

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NFL Week 3 First Touchdown Props Prediction: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (+235)

This is one of the lowest first touchdown lines I have seen in quite some time and rightfully so for a multitude of reasons starting with the fact that Josh Jacobs has scored in 11 straight games and his anytime touchdown line is set at -300.

Jacobs leads the NFL in red zone attempts zone attempts and he’s accounted for 42 of the Packers carries while the remainder of the team has registered only 13 carries (Love 6).

Jayden Reed (1TD) broke his collarbone in Week 2nd and Tucker Kraft (2TD) is listed as questionable after leaving Thursdays practice with a knee injury.

Green Bay is favored by -8.5 points, and they struck first in 11/18 games (61.1%) during the 2024 campaign while Cleveland only scored first in 5/17 games (29.4%).

That trend has continued in 2025 as the Packers have scored first in both of their games while the Browns are 0-2 in that category.

This is the most confident I have felt about a first TD prop in quite some time, and we can still get better than 2-1 odds.

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NFL Week 3 First Touchdown Props Prediction: Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (+500)

There is no advantage in this contest in terms of team-first scoring as the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans both struck first in 1 of 2 games to open the season and in 41.2% of their games during the 2024 campaign.

However, the Seahawks are playing at home as -7.5-point favorites and that should lead to a positive game script for Kenneth Walker III.

Walker is coming off a massive effort in Week 2 where he logged 13 carries, 105 rushing yards and a touchdown despite playing only 35% of the offensive snaps.

Walker was the highest graded running back last week, according to PFF. The Seahawks have been much more effective on the ground as they rank 11th in EPA per rush compared to 29th in EPA per drop back.

Seattle hasn’t targeted a wide receiver in the red area yet while tight ends have only registered a combined two targets compared to KWIII with 5 and Charbonnet with 6. Walker has been splitting carries with Zach Charbonnet, but Charbonnet missed Wednesday’s practice due to a foot injury.

Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is going up against his former team and while the scheme has changed, he’s still familiar with personnel and weaknesses of the Saints defense.

KWIII is averaging a ridiculous 6.6 yards per carry in the red area, making it a bit of an enigma as to why Charbonnet has gotten some tough carries.

That will probably change after last week’s performance and if Charbonnet misses this game this play is a no-brainer.

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