Buccaneers vs Bears Predictions, Picks and Odds | November 8, 2026
Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 last week without completing a single pass. The Buccaneers ran for 324 yards in monsoon-like conditions, intercepted four passes, and proved they can win games in the most old-school way possible. Now they head to Chicago to face a Bears team that has won and covered three straight but is working on a short week after a Monday night trip to Seattle.
The formula for slowing down a high-flying offense is to keep it on the sideline, and nobody is doing that better right now than the Bucs. This Buccaneers vs Bears matchup sets up perfectly for the underdog. Before you lock in your NFL predictions, here is the full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.
Buccaneers vs Bears Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Buccaneers +6 (-108)
- Total Pick: Under 47.5 (-115)
- Projected Final Score: Bears 24, Buccaneers 20
Odds and Line Movement for Buccaneers vs Bears
Chicago opened as a 6-point favorite, dipped as low as -4.5, and has climbed back to -6, with the Bears drawing as much as 99% of the money. The total has bounced between 46.5 and 47.5 all week and currently sits at 47.5, with the over drawing as much as 92% of the money and 93% of the tickets. Compare the latest live odds to find the best number on the Bucs.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6 (-110) | Over 47.5 (-105) |
| Chicago Bears | -6 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-115) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6 (-108) | Over 47.5 (-105) |
| Chicago Bears | -6 (-112) | Under 47.5 (-115) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Tampa Bay | Chicago | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | +6 (-108) | -6 (-112) | CHI 79%, CHI 81% |
| 11/03 | +6 (-110) | -6 (-110) | CHI 76%, CHI 80% |
| 11/03 | +6 (-108) | -6 (-112) | CHI 69%, CHI 77% |
| 11/03 | +6 (-112) | -6 (-108) | CHI 57%, CHI 72% |
| 11/02 | +6 (-110) | -6 (-110) | CHI 74%, CHI 69% |
| 11/02 | +4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) | CHI 73%, CHI 68% |
| 11/02 | +4.5 (-108) | -4.5 (-112) | CHI 95%, CHI 63% |
| 11/02 | +5.5 (-115) | -5.5 (-105) | CHI 95%, CHI 63% |
| 11/02 | +5.5 (-108) | -5.5 (-112) | CHI 99%, CHI 60% |
| 11/01 | +6 (-112) | -6 (-108) | CHI 98%, CHI 67% |
| 10/27 | +6 (-110) | -6 (-110) | — |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04 | 47.5 (-105) | 47.5 (-115) | OV 86%, OV 93% |
| 11/03 | 47.5 (+100) | 47.5 (-120) | OV 92%, OV 65% |
| 11/03 | 46.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | OV 82%, OV 61% |
| 11/03 | 46.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | OV 79%, OV 59% |
| 11/02 | 46.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | OV 80%, OV 57% |
| 11/02 | 47.5 (+102) | 47.5 (-122) | OV 81%, OV 55% |
| 11/02 | 47.5 (+100) | 47.5 (-120) | — |
| 11/02 | 47.5 (-102) | 47.5 (-118) | — |
| 11/02 | 47.5 (+102) | 47.5 (-122) | — |
| 11/02 | 47.5 (+110) | 47.5 (-130) | — |
| 11/01 | 46.5 (-115) | 46.5 (-105) | — |
| 11/01 | 47.5 (+100) | 47.5 (-120) | — |
| 11/01 | 47.5 (-105) | 47.5 (-115) | — |
Key Matchups and Handicap: Buccaneers vs Bears
Tampa Bay has won and covered each of the last two meetings, but these NFC opponents have not played since September 2023. The matchup now pits Tampa Bay’s punishing ground game against a Chicago team that has used fast starts to force opponents out of their game plans. Whoever controls the early tempo will likely control the outcome.
Buccaneers Grinding Teams Down on the Ground
The Buccaneers made history last week, beating the Falcons 16-0 without completing a pass. For the second straight game, Baker Mayfield’s injured thumb was not an issue as Tampa Bay ran for 324 yards in monsoon-like conditions. Mayfield has attempted just 14 passes over his last two games. Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 310 rushing yards on 52 carries against Atlanta. Tampa Bay enters this game ranked in the top seven in both rushing success rate and EPA per rush attempt.
Tampa Bay Defense Forcing Turnovers
Atlanta probably should have followed Tampa Bay’s run-heavy approach, because the Bucs’ defense intercepted four passes on the way to the shutout. Head coach Todd Bowles should have a solid defensive game plan ready to keep this game level early, allowing Tampa Bay to lean on its rushing attack.
Bears Rolling Behind Fast Starts
Chicago returns home after a successful trip to Seattle on Monday Night Football. The Bears have won and covered each of their last three games, and all three went over the total. Chicago has faced several run-heavy offenses in recent weeks but neutralized them by building big early leads, going up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter against both the Falcons and Patriots and forcing those teams to throw more to catch up.
Chicago on a Short Week
The Bears are working on a short week after their Monday night game in Seattle. That limits preparation time against a unique Tampa Bay offense that has been dominating on the ground. If Chicago cannot jump out to another early lead, the Bucs’ ball-control approach could keep the Bears’ offense on the sideline.
TB vs CHI Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay has won and covered each of the last two meetings with Chicago.
- These teams have not played since September 2023.
- Chicago has won and covered three straight games, with all three going over.
- Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 last week without completing a pass.
- Tampa Bay ranks top seven in rushing success rate and EPA per rush attempt.
- The spread opened at Chicago -6, dipped to -4.5, and returned to -6.
- The total has toggled between 46.5 and 47.5, with heavy public support on the over.
TB vs CHI Key Injuries and Notes
- Tampa Bay: QB Baker Mayfield is managing a thumb injury and has thrown just 14 passes over the last two games.
- Tampa Bay: Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 310 rushing yards last week.
- Tampa Bay: The defense intercepted four passes against Atlanta.
- Chicago: Playing on a short week after a Monday night game in Seattle.
- Chicago: Led both the Falcons and Patriots 14-0 after the first quarter.
Buccaneers vs Bears ATS and Total Picks
ATS Pick: Buccaneers +6 (-108). With Chicago on a short week, taking the points with Tampa Bay is the play. The best way to slow a high-flying offense is to run the ball and keep it off the field, and the Bucs have plenty of recent experience doing exactly that. If Todd Bowles’ defense keeps the game level early, Tampa Bay can impose its will on the ground and stay within the number.
Moneyline Pick: Chicago Bears. The Bears are playing well at home and have the more explosive offense, making them the more likely winner even if the Bucs keep it close.
Total Pick: Under 47.5 (-115). Tampa Bay’s run-heavy approach shortens games, and its defense just pitched a shutout. If the Bucs avoid an early deficit, they can control the clock and limit Chicago’s possessions. The public is heavily on the over, but this game sets up as a slower, grinding contest.
Buccaneers vs Bears Best Bets
- Best Bet: Buccaneers +6 (-108)
- Total Pick: Under 47.5 (-115)
- Key Factor: Tampa Bay’s elite rushing attack controlling the clock against a Bears team on a short week
- X-Factor: Whether Chicago can build another early lead
Final Score Prediction for Buccaneers vs Bears
Chicago should find a way to win at home, but Tampa Bay’s ground game and opportunistic defense will keep this game tight throughout. Expect the Bucs to grind out long drives, cover the spread, and help keep the total under.
- Final Score Prediction: Bears 24, Buccaneers 20
- Spread Pick: Buccaneers +6 (-108)
- Total Pick: Under 47.5 (-115)
