Bears vs Packers Picks, Predictions and Odds Week 5 October 11, 2026

Rex Grossman was Chicago’s starting quarterback the last time the Bears were favored at Lambeau Field in 2006. Two decades later, that streak is set to end. Chicago has dominated this NFC North rivalry lately, going 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings, including a 31-27 Wild Card win that knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs.

Both teams also moved the ball at will last week but stalled when it mattered most, which sets up an intriguing angle on the total. This Bears vs Packers prediction digs into red zone woes, a key defensive injury and the history behind this matchup. Before you finalize your NFL predictions, here is the full breakdown of odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.

Bears vs Packers Quick Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Chicago Bears
Spread Pick: Chicago -1.5 (-110)
Total Pick: Over 45.5 (-118)
Projected Final Score: Bears 27, Packers 24

Odds and Line Movement for Chicago vs Green Bay

Chicago sat as a 3-point road favorite from October 5 through midday October 7, then the spread slid to 2.5 and eventually 1.5. The money has swung sharply over that stretch. Green Bay held as much as 70 percent of the spread money early, but Chicago now owns 88 percent of the money and 70 percent of the tickets. The total has mostly held at 45.5, briefly dipping to 44.5, with the Over now juiced to -118. Shop the live odds before kickoff, since the spread has toggled between 1.5 and 2.5.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Chicago Bears	-3 (-102)	Over 45.5 (-105)
Green Bay Packers	+3 (-118)	Under 45.5 (-115)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Chicago Bears	-1.5 (-110)	Over 45.5 (-118)
Green Bay Packers	+1.5 (-110)	Under 45.5 (-102)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Chicago	Green Bay
10/08	-1.5 (-110)	+1.5 (-110)
10/08	-2.5 (-105)	+2.5 (-115)
10/08	-1.5 (-120)	+1.5 (+100)
10/08	-1.5 (-118)	+1.5 (-102)
10/08	-1.5 (-112)	+1.5 (-108)
10/07	-2.5 (-105)	+2.5 (-115)
10/07	-2.5 (-110)	+2.5 (-110)
10/07	-2.5 (-115)	+2.5 (-105)
10/07	-3 (-102)	+3 (-118)
10/07	-3 (-105)	+3 (-115)
10/07	-3 (-102)	+3 (-118)
10/07	-3 (-105)	+3 (-115)
10/06	-3 (-102)	+3 (-118)
10/06	-3 (-105)	+3 (-115)
10/05	-3 (-102)	+3 (-118)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
10/08	45.5 (-118)	45.5 (-102)
10/08	45.5 (-112)	45.5 (-108)
10/08	45.5 (-118)	45.5 (-102)
10/08	45.5 (-115)	45.5 (-105)
10/07	45.5 (-112)	45.5 (-108)
10/06	45.5 (-108)	45.5 (-112)
10/05	45.5 (-102)	45.5 (-118)
10/05	44.5 (-118)	44.5 (-102)
10/05	45.5 (-102)	45.5 (-118)
10/05	44.5 (-115)	44.5 (-105)
10/05	45.5 (-105)	45.5 (-115)

Bears vs Packers Key Matchups and Handicap

This rivalry has tilted in Chicago’s direction, and the Bears enter as a rare road favorite at Lambeau. The more compelling angle, however, is the total. Both offenses moved the ball with ease last week but failed to finish drives, and there is good reason to expect better execution in the red zone this time around.

Bears Own the Recent Rivalry

Chicago is 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings. The teams played three times in five weeks to close last season. Each side protected its home field during the regular season, and then the Bears eliminated the Packers with a 31-27 home win in the Wild Card round. If Chicago closes as a road favorite, it will be the first time the Bears have been favored at Lambeau since Grossman started at quarterback in 2006.

Bears Red Zone Woes Against the Jets

Chicago’s offense had no trouble moving the ball last week, generating 492 total yards and 34 first downs against the Jets, yet it scored just 23 points. The Bears’ first drive covered 93 yards before being stopped at the goal line. Later in the first half, two drives stalled at the Jets’ 12-yard line, forcing field goals. In the second half, Chicago settled for a 21-yard field goal and then ended the game at the Jets’ 13-yard line.

Expect a much different approach in the red zone this week. Running the ball with D’Andre Swift was not the answer, and head coach Ben Johnson was clearly unhappy with Swift’s production and fumble. With Kyle Monangai questionable due to a thumb injury, Johnson will likely get more creative when the Bears get close to the end zone.

Packers Left Points on the Field in Tampa

Green Bay’s loss to the Buccaneers followed a similar script. Making his NFL debut, Tampa Bay rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels threw two interceptions while the Bucs were in Packers territory. Jordan Love returned the favor by throwing an interception at the Bucs’ 7-yard line. Both teams moved up and down the field but could not convert on the money downs, which suggests more points are available in this matchup if either offense cleans up its execution.

Green Bay’s defense also took a major hit. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper suffered a torn Achilles against Tampa Bay, and his absence will be felt as the Packers try to slow down a Chicago offense that just piled up nearly 500 yards.

Betting Trends: CHI vs GB

Chicago is 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings.
Chicago beat Green Bay 31-27 in last season’s Wild Card round.
The Bears have not been favored at Lambeau Field since 2006.
Chicago gained 492 yards and 34 first downs against the Jets but scored only 23 points.
Chicago opened at -3 and has moved to -1.5.
Green Bay held up to 70 percent of the spread money early in the week, but Chicago now has 88 percent of the money and 70 percent of the tickets.
The total has held at 45.5 for most of the week, with 74 percent of the money and 76 percent of the tickets on the Over.
The Over has moved from -105 to -118.

Key Injuries and Notes: CHI vs GB

Chicago Bears:

Kyle Monangai (RB) – Questionable (thumb)
D’Andre Swift fumbled against the Jets, and Ben Johnson was not pleased with his production.
Chicago’s offense was stopped inside the Jets’ 13-yard line on four separate drives.

Green Bay Packers:

Edgerrin Cooper (LB) – Out (torn Achilles)
Jordan Love threw an interception at the Buccaneers’ 7-yard line last week.
Green Bay is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay.

ATS and Total Picks

Spread Pick: Chicago -1.5 (-110)

Chicago has controlled this rivalry, and the spread has dropped from 3 to 1.5, giving bettors a much more favorable number. The Bears’ offense moved the ball with ease last week, and Green Bay’s defense is now without Cooper. If Chicago fixes its red zone issues, it has the firepower to win at Lambeau, and laying less than a field goal is the right play.

Total Pick: Over 45.5 (-118)

Both teams were involved in games last week that should have been much higher scoring. Chicago left at least four red zone opportunities without touchdowns, and Green Bay’s offense also squandered a scoring chance deep in Buccaneers territory. Johnson is expected to get more creative near the goal line, and the Packers’ defense is weakened without Cooper. Better execution from both offenses points to the Over, which has drawn most of the money and moved from -105 to -118.

Bears vs Packers Best Bets

Best Bet: Over 45.5 (-118)
Spread Play: Chicago -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline Play: Chicago Bears

The Over is the strongest play, as both offenses showed they can move the ball and only need better red zone execution to put up points. Chicago’s recent success in the rivalry and the Packers’ defensive injury make the Bears the side.

Final Score Prediction for Chicago vs Green Bay

Johnson’s creativity in the red zone pays off, and Chicago turns more of its drives into touchdowns. Love and the Packers keep pace for most of the afternoon, but the Bears make one more play late to win at Lambeau as a road favorite for the first time in two decades.