UFC Fight Night: Song vs Gutierrez Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds December 9

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for December 9th with Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez headlining the event in a bantamweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, December 9	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Song Yadong -370 vs Chris Gutierrez +295
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -140 / Under +120)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Steve Garcia v Melquizael Costa

This should be a really fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, and while I think Costa squeaks out a close win, there’s no way I’m laying -230 on him.

Garcia has won two fights in a row by KO, and has showed really great power in those wins so I’m not counting him out of this fight.

Costa certainly has the speed advantage on the feet, and his movement and kicks are going to be big weapons for him, but if Garcia closes the distance and gets Costa in the clinch, he can land big shots that will slow Costa down.

Garcia by KO could be an interesting prop because I don’t think Garcia can win a decision, and Costa by decision could be another way to bet this fight if you believe in Costa, but from a betting perspective, I will sit this one out.

Rayanne dos Santos -142 v Talita Alencar +120

Talita Alencar comes from a wrestling/grappling background, and that’s what she does in her fights. Her striking defense is bad, and her striking is pretty weak as well.

Where she excels is getting opponents to the ground, controlling them and dominating large chunks of time.

She is coming off a draw in Contender Series, and I wasn’t impressed as she gassed as the fight went on, and in round three she was getting hit bad on the feet and was desperate to stay on the ground.

I think Rayanne dos Santos beats her up pretty good on the feet, it just comes down to what can dos Santos do when Alencar shoots for takedowns.

She won’t stop them all, but I think her striking and athleticism will be enough to frustrate Alencar early and that will lead to dos Santos piecing her up on the feet.

Dos Santos’s ground game isn’t amazing, but it’s good enough to not let Alencar dominate, and on the feet it’s no contest. Dos Santos should win this one.

Stephanie Egger +150 v Luana Santos -180

The lines are strange for this fight. Stephanie Egger should win this fight, and if she doesn’t that will be two horrible losses in a row.

Santos hasn’t fought great competition, and even though she got the first round finish in her UFC debut, she was fighting Juliana Miller who is nowhere near a UFC caliber fighter.

Santos’s striking is wild and a bit unorthodox and although she has finishes on her record, Egger is a massive step-up in competition.

Egger just looked like she wasn’t paying attention in her last fight, and it cost her as she got caught in a kneebar, but before that she had a nice win against Ailin Perez by submission.

If Egger is smart, she’ll use her wrestling and grappling as she is much better in that area, but I just can’t bet on Stephanie Egger after that last performance. No chance I’m laying -180 on Santos who I’m not that high on so this fight is a pass for me.

Kenan Song +142 v Kevin Jousset -170

Kenan Song has lost two straight to Ian Gary and Max Griffin, but he rebounded in his last fight by beating Rolando Bedoya in a fight that took place on the feet and Song pushed forward and landed the better shots all fight including a nice knock down in round two.

I thought his movement looked good, and his striking was just a bit more crisp than Bedoya so it was a well-deserved win, and his opponent will absolutely stand and strike with him.

Joussett made his UFC debut in his last fight and got the round one finish as he used his length to land jabs and good kicks which eventually led to a clinch and takedown, and a submission (Jousset’s opponent had the worst submission defense I’ve ever seen).

This fight comes down to the length of Jousset, and can he land enough to slow down Song, and can he do enough damage early because Song looks to have really good cardio.

I don’t think this fight has any value in betting it, but I would lean ever so slightly to Song as I have a feeling Song’s speed and cardio will win him rounds two and three.

Tatsuro Taira -410 v Carlos Hernandez +320

Carlos Hernandez has pretty decent striking as he beat up Bondar in his last fight, but Bondar isn’t an amazing UFC fighter, and for Hernandez it’s all about avoiding the takedowns and ground game of Tatsuro Taira who is 14-0.

It’s not a good sign for Hernandez that he got submitted in round one against Allan Nascimento two fights ago as Nascimento is a takedown and ground game specialist.

I don’t think Taira will let Hernandez get going with his striking, and Taira will get this to the ground sooner rather than later, and once on the ground it’s Taira all day.

I think Taira ML is a fantastic parlay piece, or you can wait til props come out and take Taira inside the distance.

Hyun Sung Park -425 v Shannon Ross +330

Shannon Ross has to be one of the worst UFC fighters on the roster, and to be honest, he’s only getting UFC fights because he’s Australian and he’s been on the cards with fellow Australian Alexander Volkanovski.

He lost on Contender Series as a favorite, and he’s had two UFC fights and he was knocked out in 59 seconds in his first fight, and then he was KO’d in 17 seconds so we really have no idea what he can do. He’s fighting Park, who is coming off of Road To UFC, and I’ve just decided that I’m not betting on sides with these guys making their debut coming off of Road To UFC.

Park is 8-0, but the competition is tough to determine, and from what I’ve seen he does some striking well, and can submit guys, but he doesn’t have good striking defense so there are just a lot of unknowns with him.

What I am doing is betting these fights that feature Road To UFC fighters is to not go the distance. They seem to be kill or be killed, and the last few I’ve seen have ended early.

Neither of these guys has good striking defense, and both will be desperate for a win and will come out firing, and one of them will surely get finished. I don’t know who wins, I don’t particularly care, but I do think this fight doesn’t go the distance.

Nasrat Haqparast -218 v Jamie Mullarkey +180

Neither of these guys impress me at this point in their careers as both don’t seem to have knockout power these days. Mullarkey had two knockouts in 2021, but he hasn’t shown that power recently despite him winning three out of four fights.

Haqparast has one KO win in the UFC in 11 fights so where I’m going with this is to take this fight to go the distance. It should be a fun fight on the feet with plenty of strikes, but I don’t think either of these guys can finish the other. Take the fight to go the distance.

Andre Muniz +160 v Jun Yong Park -192

I think Park continues to be undervalued, and I think -192 is a fantastic price as I expect him to easily beat Muniz. I bet on him to beat Uriah Hall three fights ago, and he did get the win, but Hall was at the end of his career and it wasn’t an amazing performance.

Two fights ago Brendan Allen dominated and finished him, and in his last fight he let Paul Craig beat him with his striking and Paul Craig has no striking. Muniz is known as a submission guy, but I haven’t seen good ground game from him the last two fights, in fact I see him getting worse.

Park is 7-1 in his last 8 fights, and he’s shown his durability and submission game by winning his last three by rear naked choke.

He had an incredible comeback win in his last fight against Duraev where he was an underdog as he showed how durable he his absorbing a lot of early strikes from Duraev, but he delivered plenty of his own strikes, and wore Duraev down to get the submission wein.

I think Park has better fight IQ, better cardio, and more ways to finish, and Muniz hasn’t shown anything positive the last couple fights. I’m on Park in this one.

Sumaderji +260 v Allan Nascimento -325

Three of Allan Nascimento’s last four wins have been by submission, and his last three losses have all be split decisions so he could have a couple more wins to his record.

He’ll certainly want to get this to the ground as that’s where he is at his best with ground game, control time and hunting submissions.

We haven’t seen Sumaderji since his fight against Schnell, one of the most insane fights we’ve ever seen in the UFC. Sumaderji was fighting on a torn ACL, and was beating Matt Schnell bad on the feet until Schnell made an incredible comeback to get him on the ground and tear him apart with ground and pound and then a submission win.

I don’t know how Sumaderji is going to look in this fight as he’s coming off an ACL injury, and the amount of damage he took could have long lasting effects.

I’ll take Nascimento to win by taking Sumaderji down and working the ground game, but at this price I probably won’t get to the window.

Anthony Smith +195 v Khalil Rountree -238

Strange fight here as Anthony Smith steps in short notice to face Rountree who has won four straight fights.

Smith is coming off a close split decision win against Ryan Spann where both guys were exhausted in the 2nd round, and Smith wore a lot of damage on his face after the fight, and I’m not sure he truly won that fight.

He’s 35, been in a lot of fights and absorbed a lot of damage, and this feels like Smith taking a fight for a nice paycheck to end the year. Rountree should be faster, and I think he’ll have better cardio as the fight goes on.

I expect it to take place mostly on the feet, and I see Rountree being a bit more crisp and effective. Smith is tough as nails, but can leave himself open to getting hit pretty hard, and I think Rountree takes advantage.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Yadong Song -370 v Chris Gutierrez +295

Guiterrez was disappointed in himself after losing to Pedro Munhoz two fights ago as he was tentative, and got away from his game plan so it was nice to see him rebound with a win over Alatengheili in his last fight.

He was able to land his damaging leg kicks and win the striking battle, but he has a real uphill battle in his fight against Yadong Song. Song is 25 years old and an incredible fighter with great speed and power, I just think he’s a bit overrated.

He beat Casey Kenney who hasn’t fought in the UFC since then, he beat Julio Arce who is 3-4 in his last 7, and he knocked out Marlon Moraes who has been knocked out 8 times in a row to end his career.

He jumped up in competition and fought Corey Sandhagen, and while he was tough, he was a bit outclassed and the fight got stopped because of a cut. To his credit, he came back and beat Ricky Simon in a really good fight, and although he got the win late, Simon was able to hit him and put damage on him.

I thought his cardio was impressive, and for him to have KO power in the 5th round was nice to see. I believe Song should win with his speed and power, but if Gutierrez has success with the leg kicks early, that could be a huge factor the longer the fight goes.

I’ll lean Song to win, but from a betting perspective, there’s no way I’m laying this kind of price. I think the way to play this fight is to look at an over of some kind. Gutierrez has never been knocked out, and Song isn’t going to submit him.

The last four fights for Song haven’t gone the distance, but his last two fights made it to round four and five. These guys are going to be tough to finish, I think this fight makes it to round four and maybe later.

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