UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues Picks, Predictions and Odds August 22, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for August 22, 2026 with the main event headlined by Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA.

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Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, August 22	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Rounds:	2.5 (Over -104 / Under -122)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Serghei Spivac (+134) vs. Vitor Petrino (-168)

Serghei Spivac is coming off a bizarre win over Ante Delija where the two heavyweights ended up trading strikes, and surprisingly, Spivac got the better of those exchanges. Striking isn’t normally where Spivac wants to live. His best work comes through his wrestling, takedowns and ability to establish dominant top position.

The question is whether he can consistently get that game going against Vitor Petrino. Petrino’s move up in weight has been good for him. He’s extremely physical, carries legitimate power and has wrestling of his own. His cardio is still something I worry about, and he isn’t necessarily a high-volume striker, but the shots he does land tend to have an impact.

I think Petrino is simply going to be too physical and powerful in this matchup. Spivac may have some opportunities to wrestle, but I don’t think he’ll be able to consistently impose his normal game.

Pick: Vitor Petrino

Reinier de Ridder (-361) vs. Roman Dolidze (+295)

I think Roman Dolidze is simply done competing with the top fighters in this division. The output has disappeared, the speed isn’t there anymore and he doesn’t carry the same threat

offensively. Two fights ago against Anthony Hernandez, Dolidze was dominated so badly that it felt like the performance that marked the end of his run as a competitive top-tier fighter.

Reinier de Ridder isn’t an elite striker himself, but he doesn’t need to be here. He can clinch, wrestle and make Dolidze work in areas where Dolidze has recently struggled. De Ridder should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and control long portions of it.

At this stage, I think almost any legitimate top-ranked middleweight should be favored heavily against Dolidze. The price on de Ridder is steep, but he’s clearly the pick.

Pick: Reinier de Ridder

MarQuel Mederos (+239) vs. Mason Jones (-291)

I think this fight is considerably closer than the betting line suggests. These two have some similarities stylistically. Both are solid strikers with good cardio, and neither fighter necessarily needs to build his game around wrestling or grappling.

The difference that interests me is defense. Mason Jones is willing to take a lot of damage, while Mederos does a pretty good job defensively. If this becomes the competitive striking match I expect, we could see several close rounds where avoiding damage is just as important as landing it.

At nearly +240, I don’t think Mederos needs to dominate this matchup to have value. If he can use his defense, stay composed and steal a couple of close rounds, an upset is very realistic. The odds are what push me toward the underdog.

Pick: MarQuel Mederos

Carli Judice (-459) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+397)

Carli Judice is my most confident pick on the card. She has developed into an excellent volume striker, and she continues to improve every time we see her. She overwhelms opponents with activity and forces them to fight at a pace they simply can’t maintain.

Jeisla Chaves is game and will fight hard, but I don’t see an area where she can consistently take advantage of Judice. She doesn’t have the striking skill to keep up with Judice on the feet, and Judice has shown good enough takedown defense that I don’t expect Chaves to find an easy alternative route to victory.

Judice should dictate the pace, pile up volume and gradually separate herself as the fight progresses. The moneyline is obviously expensive, but from a straight prediction standpoint, she’s the easiest pick on the card for me.

Pick: Carli Judice

Anthony Wint (-1240) vs. Terrance Chatman (+489)

This fight feels like a showcase matchup for Anthony Wint. He’s coming off a quick knockout victory on Contender Series, and now he gets an opponent who appears to have been brought in specifically to give Wint another opportunity for a highlight-reel finish.

There really isn’t much to break down here. Wint should have massive advantages offensively, and I don’t expect Chatman to survive the opening round if Wint immediately pushes the action. The moneyline is completely unplayable at this price, so I’d rather attack the method and timing of the victory.

Pick: Anthony Wint by first-round KO

Jamall Emmers (+312) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-345)

Lerryan Douglas has massive power, and he doesn’t need many opportunities to end a fight. If he lands one clean shot, he can shut the lights off immediately.

Jamall Emmers is now 37 years old, and I’m not convinced he has the speed at this stage of his career to stay out of danger for an entire fight. He does have length and reach that could theoretically help him manage distance, but eventually Douglas is going to close that distance and force exchanges.

Once that happens, I think Douglas lands the shot he needs. Rather than laying a big moneyline price, I’d be more interested in backing Douglas to get the finish.

Pick: Lerryan Douglas by KO

Shamil Gaziev (-125) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+120)

Shamil Gaziev has now been knocked out in two straight fights, which obviously raises some major durability concerns. He does bring pressure, solid striking, size and wrestling, but he’s slow and his cardio can become a major problem as fights progress.

Kennedy Nzechukwu has knocked out his last two opponents, although I’m not ready to suddenly label him a devastating knockout artist because of the quality and condition of those opponents. What I do trust more in this matchup is his ability to maintain himself deeper into the fight.

Gaziev can absolutely have success early, but the longer this goes, the more I favor Kennedy. Once Gaziev starts slowing down, Nzechukwu should have opportunities to take over the exchanges.

Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nasrat Haqparast (-110) vs. Chris Padilla (+101)

Chris Padilla has impressed me since joining the UFC. He’s durable, has very good fight IQ and consistently seems to recognize what an opponent does poorly and then attack that weakness. He walks forward, forces action, throws good volume and has a solid defensive guard.

Nasrat Haqparast is also primarily a striker and brings respectable volume of his own. The concern is that he was knocked out badly last October and hasn’t fought since. Stylistically, though, these guys are similar enough that I have a difficult time finding a meaningful advantage on either side.

I don’t have a strong moneyline pick here. What I do like is both fighters being comfortable striking for long stretches without necessarily having to sell out for a finish.

Pick: Fight Goes the Distance

Márcio Barbosa (-1090) vs. Ryan Kuse (+312)

Márcio Barbosa is a killer with ridiculous power, and this looks like another showcase opportunity for him. Ryan Kuse is a journeyman making his UFC debut, and the matchmaking appears designed to give Barbosa another chance to produce a violent highlight.

I don’t see Kuse surviving the early exchanges. Barbosa should immediately put him under pressure, land something significant and end the fight before Kuse has an opportunity to settle in.

There’s obviously no reason to touch a -1090 moneyline. The value, if there is any, comes from attacking the finish.

Pick: Márcio Barbosa by first-round KO

Gauge Young (-155) vs. Stanley Dorsainvil (+130)

Stanley Dorsainvil is talented, but he only has five professional fights on his record. He has a strong clinch game and dangerous submissions, but this is another significant test of his development.

Gauge Young brings more experience and should have the advantages at distance. He’s faster, is the better pure striker and also has enough wrestling strength that Dorsainvil shouldn’t simply be able to dictate the grappling exchanges.

Dorsainvil has some legitimate upside, but I think Young is the more complete and experienced fighter right now. His speed and striking should be the difference.

Pick: Gauge Young

Jackson McVey (-183) vs. Wes Schultz (+150)

Jackson McVey is really dangerous for about five minutes. He can land damaging strikes, get takedowns and overwhelm opponents early, but his cardio falls off dramatically after the opening round.

Wes Schultz is undersized and doesn’t have much power, but he can become dangerous if he gets a takedown and establishes top position. From there, he has ground-and-pound and submission opportunities. The problem is that his durability is questionable, and that’s a major concern against someone as dangerous as McVey early.

If Schultz survives the opening round, this fight becomes much more interesting. I don’t think he gets that opportunity. McVey should find him early and get the finish before his cardio becomes an issue.

Pick: Jackson McVey by early KO

Shanelle Dyer (-590) vs. Elise Reed (+489)

Shanelle Dyer is the clear pick, but -590 is a horrible price and not something I’m interested in betting. Dyer should be the better striker, while Elise Reed has shown a fairly low ceiling at the UFC level.

Reed can look competent on the feet against weaker competition, but she has major holes in her ground game and hasn’t shown enough consistency anywhere to make me trust her against better opponents. Dyer isn’t much of a grappler herself, but she shouldn’t need to wrestle in this matchup.

Dyer should be able to keep the fight standing and simply beat Reed with her striking. A knockout is also very possible if Reed begins absorbing too much damage.

Pick: Shanelle Dyer

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Anthony Hernandez (-191) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+145)

This is a very tough fight to predict because we don’t know exactly what version of Anthony Hernandez is going to show up. Hernandez is at his best when he suffocates opponents with relentless wrestling, pressure and cardio, slowly wearing them down as the fight progresses.

The concern is what happened in his last fight against Sean Strickland, when he abandoned that strategy and tried to turn it into a striking match. He was thoroughly outclassed.

Gregory Rodrigues is exactly the type of opponent Hernandez should not want to stand and trade with. Rodrigues has legitimate knockout power and enough wrestling ability to make things interesting, but his biggest weakness has always been his cardio. His gas tank can fall off a cliff after a couple of hard rounds, and that becomes an even bigger concern in a five-round fight.

The path for Hernandez is pretty straightforward: pressure Rodrigues, wrestle, make him work and survive the early danger. If Hernandez gets through the first couple of rounds without taking major damage, he should be able to overwhelm an exhausted Rodrigues later.

The problem is that I hated seeing Hernandez abandon his wrestling against Strickland, and I’m worried he tries to prove something on the feet again. If he does, Rodrigues can absolutely knock him out. I’ll take a shot on Rodrigues, but there’s no reason to bet his moneyline. If Rodrigues wins this fight, I believe it comes by finish.

Pick: Gregory Rodrigues by finish

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