UFC 289 Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 10

UFC 289 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 289 predictions and picks for June 10 with Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana headlining the event. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada.

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Amanda Nunes v Irene Aldana Odds: UFC 289

Saturday, June 10	UFC 289 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Amanda Nunes -335 v Irene Aldana +260
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -130 / Under +100)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada
TV:	PPV

UFC 289 Betting Analysis

Nothing exciting for us last week as we went 1-1, but we still remain #1 in MMA profits for Wagertalk.com and I will be looking very forward to cashing in on UFC and PFL this weekend.

PFL offers up some incredible opportunities with their card, and you can join me with my picks here: http://wt.buzz/al

I like a lot of overs on this card and I feel like my best bet on this card may be parlaying 2-3 fights to start round two.

There are some underdogs that I like, and I won’t be surprised if this card causes bettors some problems. Be cautious with your bets this week, don’t overextend, so let’s dive in and see what sticks out.

UFC 289 Expert Predictions

David Dvorak -275 v Steve Erceg

Erceg takes this fight as Matt Schnell dropped out, and all signs point to a Dvorak win, but I would be cautious with this fight. Erceg comes from Australia, and is a tough guy who likes to push fighters against the fence and make them clinch and try and get takedowns and make the fight dirty.

He’s tall for the division so he’s had success with this style against lesser fighters, but Dvorak is faster and better than anyone he’s faced and I doubt Dvorak accepts that position.

Dvorak’s speed on the feet should allow him to stick and move and piece up Erceg on the feet en route to victory. My pause with this bet is that we keep seeing these types of underdogs perform well.

We saw Naimov beat Mullarkey thanks to one of the worst early stoppages I’ve ever seen, but it still goes down as a short notice replacement underdog winning, and we’ve seen Rolando Bedoya almost beat Khaos Wiliams as a big underdog, and Diego Lopes almost beat Mover Evloev as a big underdog.

I’ll pass on playing Dvorak here, but I think this fight to start round two is a fantastic parlay piece as Dvorak isn’t a finisher, and Erceg won’t be able to submit Dvorak like he has his opponents in EMMA.

Blake Bilder -220 v Kyle Nelson

Bilder should dominate this match as Kyle Nelson is not very good. Nelson has non effective striking and he pushes guys against the cage without doing damage, and if he gets a fighter on the ground they can get up pretty easily.

He is 1-4-1 in the UFC and should be 1-5 as the tie was due to his opponent getting a point taken away when Nelson was losing.

Bilder is much faster on the feet, and has good takedown defense so if Nelson tries that level change he does every fight, Bilder should be able to block it and keep the fight on the feet where Bilder’s big cardio advantage will show in rounds two and three. Bider should roll here.

Miranda Maverick -295 v Jasmine Jasudavicius

I’m a big Maverick fan, but I don’t agree with this price. Maverick’s weakness has been her takedown defense and Jasmine will surely test it as she beat Fernandes in her last fight with takedowns. Maverick is way better than Fernandes, and Miranda has good takedown and ground game herself, but I’m not willing to pay this price. Taking this fight to go the distance is about the same price as Maverick ML, and I feel better about that wager.

Nassourdine Imavov -140 v Chris Curtis

This is a fascinating fight as I’m surprised that Curtis is taking a fight so soon after the war that he and Gastelum had, but there’s a reason he took this fight, and I believe it has to do with who Imavov last fought.

Imavov lost to Sean Strickland who is Chris Curtis’s best friend and training partner. We saw this play out when Curtis fought Brendan Allen and Strickland had beaten Allen previously, and Strickland was ringside for Curtis coaching him and Curtis knocked out Allen.

Strickland certain knows the weak spots of Imavov and Curtis has to be working on exploiting those weaknesses. Curtis has incredible takedown defense, and a great stand up game and I think he can beat Imavov as the underdog.

Imavov is 4-2 in the UFC with wins over Jordan Williams, Ian Heinish, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Joaquin Buckey…not impressive to me. He’s lost to Phil Hawes and Sean Strickland and I think Curtis hands him his third loss in a close fight that stays on the feet.

Marc-Andre Barriault -135 v Eryk Anders

This should be a pretty grueling, and grinding matchup between these two and I like Barriault to come out on top.

Anders has cardio issues, and we saw Barriault fight another fighter with cardio issues in Julian Marquez, and Barriault bided his time in the first round, saved his energy and then pounced in round two to get the KO. Anders should have a little better cardio, but I don’t trust him.

Barriault should control the action when these two get in the cinch He has two wins in his last six fights, and those were against Darren Stewart and Kyle Daukaus who aren’t in the UFC anymore. Barriault is more complete, I like him in this matchup.

Dan Ige -250 v Nate Landwehr

I expect a war in this one. Dan Ige had lost three straight before sparking Damon Jackson unconscious in his last fight, and Ige needs to rip off a few more wins to get back to title contention.

Landwehr was plagued early in his career by going too hard too early, but he’s settled down and it’s resulted in three straight wins, His fight against Onama was an insane battle as both guys looked dead multiple times in the fight, but they somehow made it to the end where Nate got the win.

His next fight was against a bad opponent, but he took care of business and I’m pretty surprised to see -250 as the price on Ige.

Both guys will be standing and striking for most of the fight I believe, but if anyone is going to take the other down I have to believe it’s Nate, and he may be able to steal a round or two with that.

Ige probably has a touch more power, but with Nate’s toughness and improvement with patience, I don’t think this price is accurate as he’s a live dog. It’s dog or pass on the ML, and I don’t want to bet any time props so I’ll probably just watch and enjoy this fight with no money involved.

Mike Mallot -205 v Adam Fugitt

Mallot should win here as I think he’s more explosive, and he has more paths to victory, but I have enough concerns to make me not bet this fight.

Mallot is one of the draws on this Canadian card as he was one of the fighters pushing hardest for a Canadian event, and on paper he should win, but Fugitt isn’t a pushover. First off, he’s really tough and can take punishment and that concerns me because Mallot has only been out of the first round one time, and that was in 2015.

My concern is we haven’t seen his cardio tested, and if it does get out of the first round, Fugitt will absolutely test that cardio. Fugitt made it into the third round before getting knocked out by Michael Morales in 2022, but he got nice first round win against Kinoshita in February.

Fugitt’s striking isn’t super crisp, and his take down game is OK, but if he can avoid Mallot’s submission game, I think he makes this a serious battle as the fight goes on.

It’s Mallot by finish early in this fight or a very close fight that goes to the judges so if you’re going to bet on Mallott take him inside the distance to get better value.

Beneil Dariush -140 v Charles Oliveira

I can spend hours breaking down this fight, and how I think it plays out, but I’ll just keep it simple. The more money that comes in on Dariush, the more I like Oliveira. He’s 11-1 in his last 12 fights with his one loss being to Islam Makhachev.

Dariush is on an eight fight winning streak, but the level of competition isn’t even close to Oliveira. His last fight against Gamrot was an incredible performance, but I can’t pass up taking Oliveira at plus money.

This is a guy who has finished Michael Chandler, Dustin Poireir and Justin Gaethje in three straight fights, I see no reason why he can’t submit Dariush. It’s dog or pass in this one for me.

Amanda Nunes -310 v Irene Aldana

Aldana steps in short notice, and if Amanda Nunes is dialed in, she should wipe the octagon with Aldana. Aldana is coming off a strange win against Chiasson where she may have been losing before hitting an awkward body shot late in the fight that stopped Chiasson, but the speed and power just isn’t there against Amanda Nunes.

Nunes lost to Julianna Pena in 2021 (the only fight I consider to be a fixed fight), and in her rematch she looked like her old self as she pummeled Pena for five straight rounds. The only question for me in this fight is what is the mindset of Amanda Nunes.

If we think she’s 100% focused, this fight will be a walk in the park. If she’s not fully ready to go, Aldana could absolutely land some power shots and stop Nunes. Nunes has had almost a year off, and I’m betting that she comes in ready to rock.

However, I will have the live lines up and if Nunes looks slow and sloppy at the beginning I will quickly get on Aldana live. It’s a cautious bet on Nunes for me with the option to get out of the bet on the live lines.

Fights to Start Round Two Parlay:

Dvorak vs Erceg

Imavov vs Curtis

Maverick vs Jasudavicius


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