San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds September 6
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Tuesday’s San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks clash at Petco Park. The Diamondbacks have only lost two of their last 11 games. The Padres have lost three straight only scoring five runs during that span.
| Tuesday, September 6 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | San Diego Padres -165 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +140 |
| Runline: | Padres -1.5 (+135) / Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -120 / Under -100) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | Petco Park in San Diego, CA |
| Weather: | 80 Degrees / Clear |
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Analysis
The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday night in the second of a three game set. Arizona took game one last night 5-0 behind seven shutout innings from rookie Ryne Nelson, and tonight it’s a marquee pitching matchup with Merrill Kelly taking the bump against Joe Musgrove. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM EDT / 6:40 PDT in Petco Park.
The D-Backs are quietly making their way towards the last playoff spot (held by San Diego), as they trail the Friars by only 8.0 games with 28 to play.
The odds that they’ll catch the Padres aren’t great, but you never know what can happen if a team gets hot and another team cools off. The Snakes are a dangerous team to watch these last four weeks of the season.
San Diego has managed to hang tough after the news that Fernando Tatis was suspended for the season for PED use. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 games, and 2.0 games ahead of Milwaukee for the final wild card berth.
The Padres bullpen hasn’t performed that well this year, that’s why they traded for reliever Josh Hader from the Brew Crew. It’s been a mixed bag as Hader has had three blow-up appearances since the trade deadline. It looks like the relief corps is still a big question as this team finishes the regular season.
Diamondbacks Play Serious Spoiler To Teams
Arizona has one of the best 1-2 starting pitcher combinations in baseball with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and are a big reason for the team’s improvement this season. Kelly has posted a 12-5 record, a 2.84 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in 27 starts and 164.2 innings.
The right-hander has also struck out 142, walked 48 and given up just 10 home runs. And in 12 career appearances versus the Padres, Kelly has an ERA of 2.34 and an 8-2 record.
The D-Backs hitting has also come to life in the last month, as they have the 4th best OPS and team average versus right-handers in the past 30 days.
The young outfielding core of Thomas, McCarthy and Carroll have really given this team solid production at the plate. They’re a talented group of players that we should see in the desert for the next several years.
San Diego Playing Sub-Par
Joe Musgrove has had a good season for the Padres, although he’s struggled over his past several starts. For the month of August, Java Joe had six starts with a 1-2 record, a 4.24 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and a .274 opponents’ batting average.
The Padres lineup hasn’t hit as well as expected after trading for Juan Soto and Josh Bell – but they’re still doing OK. Over the last 30 days, they’re 10th in team OPS and 19th in batting average versus right-handers.
I still think the last wild card spot they currently hold is theirs to lose, but they’ll need better performance from the bullpen and lineup to hold off the Brewers.
I’m not sure the Padres are a “bet on” team coming down the stretch, but they’re talented enough that I can’t fade them, either. I’m not from Missouri, but San Diego will have to “show me” better baseball before I run to the window to bet on them.
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Both starters are among the best pitchers in the National League, neither team’s bullpen gives me a lot of confidence, but the young, up-and-coming D-Backs are playing a confident, loose brand of baseball.
In Vegas terms, they’re playing with “house money” because they have nothing to lose – if they don’t make the playoffs this year, they weren’t expected to. Meanwhile, the Padres have more pressure on them down the homestretch as they have a small lead over Milwaukee for the final wild card spot.
I’m not itching to bet against Joe Musgrove, but he’s not in great current form and I think the visiting team can keep it close and maybe even pull out the win. That’s why I’ll take Arizona on the +1.5 run line, and feel free to sprinkle a little bit on the moneyline.
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line (+1.5) -155
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First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Tuesday, September 6
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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