Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction and Betting Preview | June 30
Monday’s Pirates vs Cardinals clash in Pittsburgh features a pair of starting pitchers that each gave up seven runs in their last start. Between Erick Fedde and Andrew Heaney, which one is primed for a bounce-back performance at PNC Park? The GoldSheet team shares its thoughts on this NL Central showdown.
Pirates vs Cardinals Betting Preview
| Time | 6:40pm ET / 3:40pm PT |
| Stadium | PNC Park in Pittsburgh |
| Weather | Warm and Humid with a Chance of a Pop-Up Shower |
| MoneyLine | St Louis -120 / Pittsburgh EV |
| Total | 8.5 Runs (o -120 / u EV) |
| RunLine | St Louis -1.5 (+140) / Pittsburgh +1.5 (-165) |
St Louis Cardinals
After a strong 2024 campaign, Cardinals’ starter Erick Fedde has struggled this season. He enters Monday in the bottom-20th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.
His average exit velocity has jumped over two miles per hour from 88.6 mph to 90.7 mph. His hard-hit rate has jumped from 37.7-percent to 43.3-percent. His strikeout rate has dropped from 21.2-percent to 15.2-percent. His walk rate has jumped from 7.2-percent to 10.2-percent. His expected ERA (5.26) is over a run higher than his actual ERA (4.11).
In his last outing against the Cubs, Fedde allowed seven runs on eight hits with two walks in 3.2 innings. The Pirates’ lineup will have a small familiarity advantage in this matchup as they have seen Fedde earlier this season (in a game the Pirates won), but the Cardinals have not faced Pirates’ starter Andrew Heaney.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Unless you play in a place like San Francisco (pitcher friendly) or Colorado (hitter friendly), home vs road splits for a starting pitcher typically do not hold a lot of weight. Starting pitchers should generally perform the same regardless of the venue. Andrew Heaney may be an exception who really enjoys sleeping in his own bed at home.
Heaney has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP at home this season, compared to a 1-5 record with a 5.79 ERA on the road. That’s not a one-year anomaly, either. Last year when he was with the Rangers, Heaney had a 3.64 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP at home compared to a 4.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP on the road.
Five of Heaney’s last six starts have come on the road, so he’s happy to be back at PNC Park on Monday night. In his last home start, Heaney allowed one run on four hits with five strikeouts and no walks in 6.0 innings against the Phillies.
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction
Bryan Reynolds has gotten red-hot at the end of June, and he’s cleared the 1.5 total bases mark in six of his last seven games. In the Pirates’ three-game sweep against the Mets over the weekend, Reynolds had five extra-base hits including a pair of home runs.
Reynolds has gotten unlucky at the plate through the first half of the season, but he’s beginning to see some of that positive regression now. His expected batting average (.285) is over 40 points higher than his actual batting average (.239) and his expected weighted on-base average (.374) is significantly higher than his actual weighted on-base average (.308).
PITTSBURGH PIRATES EV MONEYLINE
BRYAN REYNOLDS OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (EV)
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