Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners ALDS Predictions and Odds | Game 1
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Game 1 Preview
The Houston Astros won the regular season series 12-7 over the Seattle Mariners. What can Julio Rodriguez and Co. offer in the ALDS to reverse their recent history against the defending AL champs? Sportsmemo handicapper Eric Pauly offers his Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Game 1 betting preview.
| Tuesday, October 11 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Houston Astros -235 vs Seattle Mariners +190 |
| Runline: | Astros -1.5 (EV) / Mariners +1.5 (-120) |
| Total: | 6.5 Runs (Over -120 / Under EV) |
| Game Time: | 3:37pm ET / 12:37pm PT |
| Where: | Minute Maid Park in Houston |
| TV: | TBS |
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Analysis
The Seattle Mariners pulled off one of the craziest comebacks in postseason history over the weekend as they dispatched the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening round. Seattle was down seven runs on the road in Game 2 and they came all the way back to earn the mini sweep.
With the best record in the American League this season, Houston earned a bye in the opening round and will have home field advantage in this five-game series with the Mariners.
Rest vs Rust?
Dating back to the end of the regular season, Seattle has won its last five games and is arguably in the best form of the whole season. Seattle’s bats certainly earned some confidence north of the border, but will those extra innings on the arms of the pitching staff have an effect in this round?
Luis Castillo was fantastic in Game 1 but Robbie Ray struggled in his Game 2 appearance. The M’s will hand the ball to 25-year-old Logan Gilbert this afternoon, who will be making his fifth start against the Astros this season. The Astros and Mariners split those prior four games, with three of those four staying comfortably under this afternoon’s total of 6.5 runs.
Ready for Launch…Again
There’s not much more that you can say about the 106-win Astros at this point. Their pitching is great. Their offense is electric. They play great defense.
Justin Verlander, who is expected to take the Cy Young Trophy home in a couple weeks, will make the start for the Astros to open up the series. Verlander has faced the Mariners six times this season and the Astros went 5-1 in those games.
At home this season, Verlander has a 1.64 ERA, a .201 batting average against, a .269 slugging percentage against, a 1.70 FIP, and a .88 WHIP. In what might be his final season in the Majors, Verlander has put together an absolutely phenomenal season and I expect it to continue in the postseason.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
The Mariners are on a roll, and I would love to see them win, but beating Verlander in Houston in Game 1 is a tall task. The moneyline is too high to back Houston, and I do not want to lay 1.5 runs on the home team who is not guaranteed to get nine at-bats. So I am looking at the total here. Despite how good these teams are on offense, I would go under the low total of 6.5 runs.
Gilbert has handled the Astros’ lineup in three of his four meetings against them. At 39 years of age, Verlander still looks like one of the best pitchers on the planet. After a brief layoff, the Astros might need a couple trips through the batting order to get back in the hitting groove.
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Meet the Author
Sportsmemo handicapper Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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