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Best Home Run Prop Bets | Wednesday, April 3rd

Yordan Alvarez goes past hitter prop

The 2024 MLB season has commenced, and who doesn’t love home run prop bets? We expect there to be home runs to start off the season. Let’s take a look at our best bets for players to go yard and start the season on a high note. Here are the best home run prop bets to make for Wednesday.

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Best Home Run Prop Bets – MLB Free HR Props Picks

Anthony Rizzo (NYY) +500

Anthony Rizzo has yet to hit a home run this season, but he has the best matchup to go yard he’s had all year. Rizzo has four hits this season and one double. He’s batting just .182, but that is expected for someone who missed most of last season due to injury.

Merrill Kelly, the D-Backs starter tonight, allowed 11 home runs to left-handed batters last season. In 2023, Rizzo hit 11 of his 12 home runs off of righties. He is 1-8 off of Kelly in his career, but his average launch angle in those outs is 19.8, meaning he is getting the ball off the ground in these plate appearances.

Arizona plays in a controlled environment, so there are no weather concerns in the desert tonight. Kelly was 26th in the MLB in HR/9 last season, allowing an average of 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched. He allowed a home run in his first start at home, and Rizzo makes for one of the best home run prop bets to make today.

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) +280

Yordan Alvarez, one of the premier power hitters in the sport, has not gone long yet this season. Tonight, he faces a foe he has had a lot of success against in the past. Yordan Alvarez has five hits against Blue Jays’ starter Chris Bassitt, and four of them were long balls.

Bassitt finished last season 13th in HR/9, allowing 1.26 home runs per nine innings. He already allowed a home run to lefty Brandon Lowe. Last season, Bassitt allowed 21 of his 28 home runs to left-handed batters.

Yordan Alvarez hits lefties and righties at the same clip, so there is no concern about a lefty-lefty matchup later in the game. Houston plays in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the MLB, so Alvarez should be able to get on the board today.

The mix of Alvarez’s skillset and Bassitt’s propensity to let up home runs makes this one of the best home run prop bets to make today.

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