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Best Home Run Prop Bets | Thursday, April 18th

Adolis Garcia of Rangers celebrates home run for YRFI

The 2024 MLB season has commenced, and who doesn’t love home run prop bets? Home runs have been flying so far this season, and we are continuing to pick winners. Let’s take a look at our best bets. Here are the best home run prop bets to make for Thursday.

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Matchup Notes, Bullpen Usage, and Recommended Wagers

We have been on a heater with home run props, and we started off this week with another bang. We had Mike Trout to hit a home run on Monday, and Trout did not disappoint. That gives us five home run prop bets hits over the last 14 articles, which has us very much so in the green.

Let’s dive into the best home run prop bets to make today.

Best Home Run Prop Bets – MLB Free HR Props Picks

Adolis Garcia (TEX) +290

Adolis Garcia is one of the premier power hitters in the MLB, and today, he has a good matchup to take one out of the yard. Garcia is 2-7 in eight at-bats against Maeda with five strikeouts, a double, and a home run. When Garcia makes contact against Maeda, he makes it count with a 96.5 exit velocity and a 15.5-degree launch angle.

Maeada has allowed four home runs this season, and three of them have come to right-handed hitters. All four of Garcia’s home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching. Madea is a splitter pitcher with a mixed-in 4-seemed and a slider. Given his power and his history against Maeda, this is one of the best home run prop bets to make today.

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Jorge Soler (SFG) +320

Last season, Ryne Nelson, the D-Backs starter, allowed 15 home runs to right-handed batters with a 1.79 HR/9. Nelson has not let up a home run to a righty yet this season, but we expect that to change tonight. Soler, the right-handed slugger, only has three home runs so far this season, but tonight is a great matchup for him.

Nelson throws 4-seem fastballs at a 51.4% rate this season, and Soler has a 61.5% hard-hit rate and a .655 xSLG against 4-seems this season. Nelson’s secondary pitch is a cutter, but he is mostly a fastball pitcher. Soler has never seen Nelson in his career, but given the advanced metrics here, this is one of the best home run prop bets to make on today’s slate.

MLB Predictions, Picks and Best Bets Today | Drew's Daily Diamond | 4/17/24

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