The American Express Predictions, Picks and DFS Lineup January 22-25
The American Express Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on The American Express teeing off from La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, CA. Andy discusses his predictions, picks, who can trip you up, the course and more surrounding The American Express starting January 22!
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| The American Express | The American Express Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 22-25 |
| Where: | La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, CA |
| Defending Champ: | Sepp Straka |
| Current Favorite: | Scottie Scheffler (+290 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | ESPN+ and Golf Channel |
The American Express Course: La Quinta Country Club
The 2026 American Express is once again played across three courses in the Coachella Valley: PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club.
The Stadium Course is the toughest of the trio, featuring water hazards, deep bunkers, and demanding approach shots, while the Nicklaus Tournament Course offers wider fairways and more scoring opportunities.
La Quinta Country Club is the shortest and most straightforward setup, often producing the lowest scores of the week.
Weather conditions look ideal, with no rain and little to no wind, setting the stage for aggressive play and low scoring across all three venues.
With calm conditions and receptive desert layouts, players will be able to attack pins and take advantage of the par-5s.
The field is surprisingly strong, highlighted by stars like Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Åberg, and Matt Fitzpatrick, which should elevate both the competition and the winning score.
Expect a birdie fest, where anything worse than 25-under par may not be enough to lift the trophy on Sunday.
The American Express: Players That Can Trip You Up
Scottie Scheffler
I don’t think this sets up well for him, for the same reasons he struggles at The Ryder Cup.
His result at a normal tournament is about 4 rounds at the same tournament in the same conditions, the difference of The Ryder Cup disrupts his routine, and at this tournament they go to different courses so he can’t settle in at playing the same holes 4 times.
He’s finished 17th, 11th, 25th, MC the last 4 years here, I don’t think it’s a coincidence. I won’t bet on him in these “non-normal” tournaments.
Patrick Cantlay
He’s one of the big names near the top of the board, but the underlying profile doesn’t justify the price. Among the elite favorites, he’s the weakest putter, and his off-the-tee play over the last six months has been underwhelming.
While he finished 5th here last year, his broader course history is much shakier with finishes of 52nd and 26th the two years prior.
You’re paying for reputation and a single strong result, not consistent course fit or current strengths. That makes Cantlay a fade for us this week.
Si Woo Kim
He has struggled to find success at this event, finishing 22nd or worse in each of the last three years.
His putting has been a major liability, losing -0.34 strokes gained over the last 12 months, and that’s a serious problem this week.
With this tournament shaping up as a putting contest, cold putters are at a clear disadvantage. Given the course history and the flat-stick issues, Si Woo is an easy fade.
The American Express: DraftKings Darlings
Lee Hodges ($6,700) quietly put together a strong week with a 6th-place finish, and the underlying stats back it up.
He putted lights out, ranked 20th in greens in regulation,and was #1 in both sand saves and scrambling, showing elite short-game performance. He finished 34th here last year, which is solid enough to remove any course-fit concerns.
At this price, Hodges brings recent form, confidence, and upside— making him a strong DFS value play again this week.
Kevin Roy ($7,100) continues to check all the right boxes for DFS value. He’s coming off a 13th-place finish where he ranked 5th in putting and 7th around the green, showing excellent touch where it matters most.
His driving accuracy isn’t elite, but that shouldn’t be a major issue on this layout. Add in an 18th-place finish here last year, and Roy once again profiles as a high-floor, high-value option this week.
John Parry ($7,100) came through for us last week with a strong 19th place finish, so we’re going right back to him. He ranked 8th in putting, 5th in greens in regulation, and 14th in driving accuracy—exactly the kind of balanced profile you want at this price.
Those numbers show a player giving himself chances and converting them. Add in his solid recent form on the DP World Tour, and the confidence is clearly there. He’s a dependable value play again this week.
Rest Of Lineup: Robert MacIntyre $9400, Matthew Fitzpatrick $9500, Ben Griffin $10,200
Favorite Top Finish:
Top 20 Ben Griffin -115
Outright:
Ludvig Aberg +2200
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