Mexican Open Free Picks, Predictions and DFS Lineup February 22-25
Mexican Open Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on the the Mexican Open teeing off from Vidanta Vallarta, North of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Andy discusses his DraftKings Darlings, golfers to who can trip you up and the course and more surrounding the Mexican Open starting February 22nd!
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| Mexican Open | Mexican Open Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | February 22-25 |
| Where: | Vidanta Vallarta, North of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico |
| Defending Champ: | Tony Finau |
| Current Favorite: | Tony Finau (+800 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel, NBC |
Mexican Open: The Playing Field
This field the last couple years was Rahm and Finau at the top and then a big dropoff, but this year it’s Finau at the top, but I don’t even know how great he is these days.
There are a few surprise names that play well here like Cameron Champ, Brandon Wu and Patrick Rodgers as all three of those guys have finished top 10 the last two years.
Finau has finished 2nd and 1st the last two years here and is the rightful favorite, but the string of unexpected outright winners might continue this week.
Mexican Open Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Vidanta is a wide open course that favor the bombers as the fairways are big and flat. There are quite a few water hazards that are in play, but the weather looks to be perfect this week so look for scores to be pretty low.
There are two Par 5’s that are 600 yards, and there are several 500 yard Par 4’s so distance is important here.
It’s a bit of a different course with five Par 3’s and nine Par 4’s, but in the end, with this being such an easy course to hit fairways and greens, distance and a hot putter from anyone could get the win.
Mexican Open: Total Strokes Gained Last 12 Months (Min. 6 PGA Events Played)
1. Tony Finau 1.52
2. Nicolai Hojgaard 1.07
3. Stephan Jaeger 0.83
4. Ryan Fox 0.72
5. Emiliano Grillo 0.72
6. Aaron Raie 0.71
7. Thorbjorn Olesen 0.64
8. Alexander Bjork 0.61
9. Mark Hubbard 0.61
10. JJ Spaun 0.52
Mexican Open: Players That Can Trip You Up
This segment is hard this week as I try and focus on players that I think a lot of bettors will be focused on, but with one big favorite and the rest of the field jumbled together, I don’t see many picks that most people will have to bear with me.
Cameron Champ – He’s finished 6th and 8th the last two years, but he hasn’t made the cut yet this year and his approach and putting numbers are awful.
He’s -2.09 strokes gained approach in 2024 and he’s -0.71 strokes gained putting. He can hit the ball a mile off the tee, but that’s about it.
I know trying to find golfers to bet on is difficult this week, but I just can’t depend on him to keep finishing top 10 at this place when he’s so bad everywhere else.
Tony Finau – I know he loves this place, and he’s finished 1-2 in the last two years, but his putting in 2024 is -0.70 strokes gained. That’s awful.
He’s 6-1 to win, and he has to finish top two to return value, and he has one finish better than 19th this year. It’s a weak field, but if Finau’s putting isn’t great again this week, there will be other guys who putt way better and pass him.
It’s been the year of the underdog winning these golf tournaments so there’s no way I would invest in Finau at such a short price.
Mexican Open: DraftKings Darlings
Justin Lower $6100
Lower has made the cut in all four of the PGA events he’s played this ear, and all had better fields than this one. His lack of distance off the tee is a bit concerning, but we just need him to make the weekend and at 6100 it’s a great price.
Carson Young $7400
Young finished 15th here last year and has made the cut in three straight tournaments so that’s good enough for me to invest in him at $7400.
Alejandro Tosti $7800
Tosti has made the cut in two out of three tournaments on tour this year, and he’s finished 9th and 10th in both times playing this tournament. If he can get remotely close to replicating those finishes, he’ll be a steal at $7800.
Full Lineup: Justin Lower $6100, Carson Young $7400, Alejandro Tosti $7800, Brandon Wu $9100, Patrick Rodgers $9700, Stephen Jaeger $9800
Mexican Open: Additional Betting Notes
-Tony Finau, Patrick Rodgers, Brandon Wu, and Cameron CHamp are the only two golfers in the field that have finished Top 10 the last two years.
-Nicolai Hojgaard has finished top 40 in all 5 tournaments he’s played in this year.
-Kevin Dougherty, Cameron Champ, Chris Gotterup, Martin Trainer, Rico Hoey, Nicolai Hojgaard, Carl Yuan are the Top 7 in driving distance this week
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