Michigan State vs Michigan Picks and Predictions: Oct 30

Michigan State vs Michigan Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Michigan State vs Michigan Big Ten Football betting preview for Saturday, October 30 from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. At the time of posting, the Wolverines are a 4-point road favorite at Michigan State with the total sitting at 50.5 points.

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Michigan State vs Michigan Predictions

Michigan Wolverines -4 at Michigan State Spartans
Total: 50.5 Points
With Jim Harbaugh at the helm, Michigan has been favored in all six meetings with Michigan State.
Since joining the Big Ten, these two teams have never met with both at 7-0 or better.
The last time these two schools met as top-10 squads was in 1964.
Michigan was a 24.5-point favorite last year in this matchup in Ann Arbor. The Spartans not only earned the cover, they won the game outright 27-24.

This Big 10 college football Saturday, October event has just about everything a traditional pigskin fan would want in a game. There won’t be a dozen deep throws to speed-heavy receivers burning grass on Spartan Stadium field, but everything else and more. This wasn’t a game most expected to carry national championship significance, but it is, and it does. To the victor go the spoils, and this Ann Arbor versus East Lansing rivalry hasn’t felt this heavy in a long while.

To be completely transparent,, with no sales pitch about what the winner of this game receives and the loser … well loses. The Michigan university that outscores the other in Saturday’s game will have the best chance to earn a conference championship spot in the January Four.

These two teams coming out of a COVID 2020 season were not expected to be a combined 14-0 heading into this Saturday’s Halloween weekend showdown.

The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS, with their lone loss coming in a 20-13 win at the Big House as 20-point home favorites. Michigan last played as 23.5-point home chalk that resulted in a 33-7 victory over Northwestern.

Michigan State, like their Saturday rival, is 6-1 against the spread. Sparty’s single failure against the number was on a Saturday afternoon at Spartan Stadium in a 23-20 win over State. Michigan State wasn’t scheduled for a game this past weekend and they were last seen in action at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana.

Both teams will enter Saturday 7-0 and one will leave with eight wins, while the other will remain at seven, but with its first loss of the season. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh spoke with the local media earlier this week and when asked about why the team from East Lansing was undefeated and in a position most didn’t expect, the Wolverines bench boss couldn’t have been more generous, and a bit of a cow-poop artist.

“They’re playing team football, winning football,” Harbaugh confidently and eloquently said when chatting with the media on Monday. “On offense, they take care of the ball. Their running game is outstanding. Quarterback, playing very well, very efficiently. Versus all coverages and he’s very good against the blitz, he’s very good at scrambling. Averaging about eight yards a run. They do a lot of things.”

“Defensively, they play really good defense. Not a lot of tendencies to pick up on and play well on special teams. They’re playing really good ball,” Harbaugh added.

Michigan State didn’t show the metal they currently have a season ago. Second-year head coach Mel Tucker has emerged as the Big 10 Coach of the Year candidate, with Wake Forest transfer running back Kenneth Walker III as his wingman. Walker has entered the Heisman Trophy discussion. Sparty quarterback Payton Thorne (183 pass attempts) continues to hand the ball to the running backs (262 rushing attempts) nearly 50 percent more than he throws the football.

Michigan State’s receiving threats are Jayden Reed (20.8 yards per catch) and Jalen Nailor (18.9). Michigan defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is in his first season with the Wolverines. MacDonald schemes a fair amount of man coverage, bringing his safeties up and into the box and utilizing outside backers in blitz packages.

Michigan’s 7-0 start is coach Harbaugh’s most successful first seven games as head coach of Big Blue. This team’s success has come by being offensively run-heavy, using Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum in a variety of formations. Defensively blending the ability of Aidan Hutchinson off the edge and in multi-level defensive schemes that are more aggressive than in years past.

It won’t be a surprise to see Harbaugh and his offensive coordinator attempt to have more offensive balance. The Spartans Achilles is their defensive secondary. Michigan State statistically has the bottom-rated pass defense in the conference. Cade McNamara, who averages 17 pass attempts per game, will be called on to throw more than his game average on Saturday. Cornelius Johnson (20.1 ypc) and Daylen Baldwin (18.2) will test Sparty’s secondary led by All-American candidate and safety Xavier Henderson.

The top priority for Michigan on Saturday will be gang tackling the Big 10 and the nation’s top running backs. The title I have issued, Kenneth Walker III, is a reward for his 142.4 yards per game average. Walker has recorded 152 carries for 997 yards with nine touchdowns on the season, resulting in an average of 6.5 yards per carry.

Michigan’s comfort zone of running the football twice as much as they throw it has more to do with the two-headed monster they have behind McNamara. Corum and Haskins are interchangeable, and the offense always has fresh legs on every offensive snap. McNamara has been handled with kid gloves for most of the season. Anything and everything goes on Saturday for Harbaugh’s troupe.

Two unranked teams at the start of the 2021 season square off in easily the most important battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy maybe ever. As much as these two teams mirror each other on both sides of the ball, Michigan has more experience in both coaching and important player roles. All those who will be watching on Saturday will find that Michigan does everything just a bit faster and technically correct and the result is a Wolverines straight-up win and cover.

🏈All eyes on the Wolverine State this weekend as the Spartans welcome Michigan to East Lansing. @DrewMartinBets @robvenosports and @FinnatWagerTalk offer their Big Ten betting preview as Michigan (-4.5) takes on Michigan State.#GoGreen | #GoBlue https://t.co/epO2m0aLn5

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 27, 2021

Michigan State vs Michigan Analysis from The GoldSheet

The Spartans have been able to run and pass effectively this season, as redshirt freshman QB Payton Thorne has provided balance absent from last year’s team, and Wake Forest transfer sophomore RB Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation. The Spartans had the bye week to get a bit healthy and put in extra prep time for this extra important game on the schedule, and Mel Tucker is capable of using that edge to get his youthful skill contributors ready to exceed in Spartan Stadium this week. Only Georgia has allowed fewer points than the Wolverine defense in 2021, as Michigan has allowed just 14 points per game, 298 yards per game and opposing quarterbacks to complete 55% of their passes.

Michigan State vs Michigan Video Preview

Raise your hand if you thought these two teams would be undefeated at this point in the season. Not many. WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Tony Finn and Rob Veno offer their Michigan State vs Michigan predictions.

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